Consensus Succeeds if Fundamentals Stay Steady; Contrarian Needs 5% Shift
Consensus stock bets can work as long as the business trajectory doesn't deteriorate. Contrarian stock bets can work with only a 5% shift by others to your point of view.
Play or Ignore Momentum‑driven Shitcoins; Don’t Just Complain
The reason sh!tcos do well in bull markets is they don't attract fundamental investors. They attract momentum. You either develop a strategy that allows you to play along, or completely ignore it, or get annoyed and throw stones from the...
Hooke's Micrographia Sparked Curiosity, Igniting the Scientific Revolution
When Robert Hooke published “Micrographia” in 1665 it immediately became a best seller. The book included stunning drawings of Hooke's microscopic observations, showing intricate details of plant and insect structures, among other objects. One of Hooke's most famous illustrations is of...
Profit From Microcap Extremes: Buy Low, Sell High
Investor expectations swing wildly in most microcaps from euphoria to despair and vice versa which results in the stocks swinging wildly. It's on the extremes where the astute stock picker knows when to buy and sell and take advantage of...
Start Small, Trust Earns Bigger Microcap Bets
I think the biggest problem microcap investors face is initial position sizing and making positions too big at the onset. Take your time getting to know people/management. Only make a really large bet when you know them very well and...
Focused Curiosity Unlocks Your Hidden Greatness
Being curious and going down rabbit holes without getting distracted is the key to finding your greatness.
Collaborating on SafalNiveshak’s New Book: Learning From Investors
Great new book from @safalniveshak I enjoyed contributing to it and also learning from the investors in the book. https://t.co/j4dPOBFluj
Value Investors Finally Facing Overlooked Market Reality
A reality most value investors choose to ignore but I feel this is finally starting to change https://t.co/IcebLm2h9e
Long‑term Investing Means Staying While Performance Persists
Long-term investing doesn't mean you hold forever. It means you are willing to hold forever if the management/business keeps executing. They will be the extreme exception, not the norm.
Patience: The Biggest Challenge on the Investing Journey
The hardest part of the investing journey is having the patience to go through the process to be the investor you want to be.
Half of Microcaps Survive, Few Beat S&P
Always fascinating to see the base rates of microcap success. A multi-part "Hendrik Bessembinder" report on microcaps brewing here.. After 10 years: 51% of microcaps still exist in the dataset 24% returned > 0 9% returned > S&P 500 3% returned 10x or more H/T @RTelford_invest
Rich's Disciplined Microcap Strategy Ranks Top 1%
Rich doesn't do many interviews. He brings a very disciplined approach to microcap/smallcap and ranks in the top 1% of all US equity strategies since inception. Worth a listen.
Choose Early Curiosity Over Waiting for Proof
A bias I've never been able to break is finding the energy/enthusiasm to do work on companies multiple people are already talking about publicly. It's probably hurt me over the years. But I do think a big part of this...
Stop Quoting Buffett; Carve Your Own Investment Swing
Too many defend their investing strategies with Buffett quotes. If you aim to outperform the markets you must find your own swing. https://t.co/3XHsZkAldW
Patience Pays: Stocks Spike After Years of Stagnation
Stock performance is rarely linear. You sometimes have to hold onto a position for a couple years before it goes up 300% in 6 months. It always looks easy in hindsight, but holding dead money is excruciating and few are...
How to Cut Losing Trades Effectively
A new article from Clare Flynn Levy, co-author of Stock Market Maestros She gives some good pointers on getting better at cutting losers https://t.co/FxxUrgSMHp https://t.co/v81v411yzC
Management Quality Determines Small Business Success or Failure
Some investors love to say management doesn't matter, but history has proven otherwise. The fastest way to destroy a small business is to put an idiot in charge of it. Management quality isn't one factor among many, it is the...
Balance Spending and Giving: Avoid Selfish Extremes
Once you have enough savings and are on the right path, spend some money, give some away. Don't wait until you're 90. It's okay to buy some luxuries and especially okay to give today instead of waiting for your kids...
Steinhardt’s Gut Beats Analyst Hype on IBM
New Article John LeFrere, an analyst hired by Michael Steinhardt in the 1970s, recalls his first weeks on the job; he visited IBM and returned convinced that its profits were headed upward. LeFrere recommended buying IBM stock ahead of that Friday's...
Only 30 Stocks Generate 43% of Market Gains
From Hendrik Bessembinder's updated report: Only 30 stocks (out of 29,000) have produced 43% of wealth creation since 1926 Some will say this is why you just buy a market cap weighted momentum index like the S&P. I would say it proves...
Insights From Stock Market Maestros Authors Revealed
In this conversation, @Valuehunte and I sit down with Lee Freeman-Shor and Clare Flynn Levy to talk about their new book, Stock Market Maestros. I really enjoyed this conversation. https://t.co/Qzkn4Pmzg8
True Quality Takes Decades, Not One-Year Gains
Most investors definition of a quality business or quality management has nothing to do with quality - it’s simply the stock they own that is up the most in the last 12-months. Quality is a label that can only be earned...
Gold: The Risk‑Free Reserve Asset No Forecast Needed
A good interview we did 18 months ago with Anthony Deden: "The reason we own gold as a reserve asset is rooted in something fundamental. What makes gold compelling are the risks we do not take by owning it. No...
Great Investors Thrive on Opposing Strategies
New Article - Find Your Swing Warren Buffett invests his way while Walter Schloss did it another way. Carl Ichan does it his way while Peter Lynch did it another way. David Tepper does it his way while Marc Andreessen does...
Patience Pays: Years of Average Returns Can Yield Sudden Wealth
The hardest part of achieving a great long-term investment track record is over half the time your returns will look average. You can go years where it feels like you are working hard for mediocre returns. Then all of a...
Profitable, Non‑diluting Growth Beats Early Hype
Don’t worry if no one likes your investment idea. If the company is profitable and growing and not diluting the crowd will eventually come back to it.
Watchlists Become Excuses, Not Buying Opportunities
When a stock you own drops 25% it's an "opportunity". When it drops 10% more you call the CEO to verify the thesis and buy more. When it drops 10% more you get annoyed insiders aren't buying. When it drops...
Microcaps Double, Triple, Then Plunge—Sell Aggressively
Microcaps vs larger caps are two different animals. When a microcap goes up 2x and 3x in a 12-month period the median peak to trough drawdown is 58% and 68%. When an S&P 500 stock goes up 2x or 3x in a...
Obsessive Intensity Separates Mission From Mere Career
You can't teach intensity and hustle. You're either 24/7 obsessed with solving a problem, making an impact, reaching a goal or you're not. It's also the difference between a career and a mission.
Sahara’s “Mountain of Hell” Hides Giant Marine Fossils
During the winter of 1902, H.J.L. Beadnell was a geologist working for the Geological Survey of Egypt. He was doing the unglamorous work of surveying the topography of the Sahara Desert. One day he was far from civilization. He was two hundred miles southwest of...
Most Claim They'll Buy the Dip, but Can't Afford It
Everyone says they are ready for a correction. Some even say they want a correction. Very few will have the stomach or the cash to follow through on their intentions and buy when others are selling. It can happen over weeks, months,...
Embrace Short-Term Discomfort, Win Long-Term Gains
I think about this Lou Brock quote a lot and how it relates to investing. The willingness to look wrong in the short-term to be right in the long-term. "Show me a guy who's afraid to look bad, and I'll...
Microcaps Rarely Achieve 26x Revenue, 173x NIAT Growth
A great slide Over 16 years.. Revenue 26x NIAT 173x F/D Shares -17% 99.9% of microcaps couldn't have a slide like this $RX.V $BIOYF https://t.co/Sw0gquHq8o
Even Top Managers Struggle to Sell Losers
During the conversation today with Lee Freeman-Shor and Clare Flynn Levy who have analyzed the trade data of many of the best fund managers in the world - I asked what decision type do successful managers have the most issues...
Rising Oil Prices Pressure Mining Earnings Through 2026
To help mining investors understand the impact of rising oil prices as miners report 2025 results and thinking about 2026 results...
Microcap Success: Rare, Unpredictable, Right Time, Right Place
It’s always been amazing to me how you can have 10 microcaps in the portfolio with a similar positive fundamental/solid management setup over the next two years. You think they can 2-3x. A few will and several won’t quite make...
Premium Valuations Possible Even for Commodity Sellers
I wrote this article a couple years ago before resources went on a tear, but I still like to look at cyclical or hated industries through this lens. How does a business get a premium valuation when they sell a...
Big Positions Blur Reality—Stay Rational, Stay Grounded
The biggest issue with holding big positions (winners and losers) is when you lose your rationality. You only see what you want to see or hope the business to be, not what it actually is. You must always stay anchored...
Big Gains Come From Rare Deep Market Corrections
Since 1950, the average drawdown in the S&P 500 has been 14% in a calendar year, and drawdowns of at least 10% have occurred in 37 of the past 75 years. 20%+ corrections have occurred in 11 out of the past...
Invest by Following Crowds Selectively, Seek Misunderstood Resilient Niches
As Charles Mackay observed in 1841, "Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one." We are social creatures whose...
Buy on Earnings Surprises, Sell Within 15 Months
I love when stock pickers have very disciplined unique strategies like Josh Goldberg. He only buys after earnings surprises and doesn't hold longer than 15-months. From the book, Stock Market Maestros
Fundamentals Sustain Success, Not Just Hype
A mentor I had 20 years ago would say, “You might be able to pump them up, but fundamentals have to keep them up.”
Freeman-Shor and Levy Release New Must-Read Stock Picking Guide
Lee Freeman-Shor and Clare Flynn Levy team up to write another great book for stock pickers. Sample chapter in the post 👇👇 https://t.co/T2sOEitRVD
Critics Are Those Doing Less, Not More
"You'll never be criticized by someone who is doing more than you. You'll always be criticized by someone doing less. Remember that." - Denzel Washington
Fortunes Grow in the Quiet Gap Before Validation
Most investors won't like your investment idea until after it doubles, which means validation comes long after you've purchased and borne the burden of being alone in your conviction. The gap between purchase and recognition is where fortunes are built...
Market Tricks Beginners: Luck Isn't Skill, Double‑Down Costs
The greatest trick the market plays on beginners is making you think luck is skill. It waits for you to double or triple down on your next bet and then it teaches you your first lesson.
High Conviction Doesn't Require Massive Portfolio Bets
I've always been a conviction investor, but I have evolved in how I define "high conviction" and how it is expressed within my portfolio. When most investors hear high conviction, they think of high concentration. To them, concentration means making...
Invest for Few Big Winners, Sell the Rest
During a lifetime you will have 10-20 big winners and hundreds or thousands that didn’t live up to your expectations. Long-term investing success is capturing those 10-20 monsters while also understanding 95% of what you own will deserve to be...
True Quality Endures Beyond Changing Conditions
Quality is an idea, a piece of artwork, a business, a relationship, or even a book that keeps working (providing value) even after conditions change over time. Quality is an interesting topic because it’s one of the most overused terms...
Investing Is Cooking: Show the Full Flavor, Not Ingredients
A Stock Picker is a Chef Envision you are a Chef hosting a dinner. Mise en place is the French term for having all ingredients measured, chopped, and arranged before cooking. Your guests haven't been told what you are making. They only see the...