Shorter‑term Yields Reveal Future Fed Rate Path
Everyone is talking about UST Yields on 10 Yr Notes (4.607%) and 30 Yr Bonds (5.146%), but they should also start focusing on 2's (4.072%) and 5's (4.257%) which are not just reflecting current Fed Policy, but factoring in what the future path of rates is looking like.
Markets Unfazed by 3.8% CPI and Iran Tensions
CPI 3.8% YOY and Equities, like the War with Iran, just don't seem to care.
Silver Futures Break $83.84, Bulls Anticipate Further Rise
The move above $83.84 (4/17 HOD and matching the 12/29/2025 $83.77 HOD) in July Silver Futures has the Silver Bulls fired up again looking for a spike or grind higher. For me, the verdict is still out........ https://t.co/IXv9NqTS6C
War‑rumor Rally May Be Short‑lived, Sell Soon
Remember the old adage, buy the rumor sell the news... Well if folks are buying in anticipation of the end of war/conflict rally, they appear to have already created that rally. Will be interesting to see how long the spike up...
Fed's Dual Mandate Fuels Record Long-Term Rate Surge
Long-term Exploitation of Extraordinary Monetary Policy Tools, a Fed utilizing either side of it's Dual Mandate to justify lower, a lack of inflation, including CPI & PCE understating reality, helped foster the continuation of an incredible LT bull market in...
GDP Growth May Mask Inflation and Cycle‑Driven Spending
Is all this anticipated GDP growth really just Business Investment, Government spending, Prices going up (inflation), certain Corporate sales rising on what may just be a cycle top.
Balancing CEF Trades Amid NY Muni Uncertainty
@cate_long Any thoughts on NY Muni's.......... I follow and trade a bunch of CEF's and have been selling some based on Disco's and near 52 week highs. Same time adding to others (Swapping into) based on cheap 52 wk price comparison...
Oil Futures Surge Past $100, Stocks Remain Flat
June Crude oil Futures have been moving towards, and now have broken back above $100 ($106.43 +6.50), and stocks are yawning like its still $80. https://t.co/lX4zGyKkb7
Silver Shortage Pressures Speculators Amid Industrial Demand
Given all the hype and talk of a Silver shortage/deficit, and how the available physical supply is being depleted to meet industrial needs beyond mining/production, the Speculators are having their patience put to the test. I think if they...
June Gold Futures Slip Below Dec‑29 High $4
Looking at June #Gold Futures move decisively below the 12/29/25 HOD print at $4645.4 https://t.co/6XqLVzB8I5
RMDs Trigger Forced Equity Sales, Yet Allocations Rise
Not sure this is taking place: Many Managed Retirement accounts with active RMD's (Required Minimum Distributions) should have asset allocation models that result in forced Equity selling in order to rebalance the portfolios weightings. Seems like equity allocation are swelling.
Silver Shortage Claim Challenged by Low Futures Delivery Volume
If there is such a shortage of Silver, as those making the bullish case say there is, what do they say about only 3,301 contracts taking delivery in April Silver Futures....... that's approximately $1.2B which is like an intra day tick...
Mexico Core Inflation Falls to 4.27%
Not sure what to do with this one, but Mexico core inflation down to 4.27%.......
Stocks Should Fall More Amid Straits Closure Warning
I say this with complete humility, stocks should probably be down a lot more tonight, with news the Straits are closed. June E-mini should be down >$100, but the way things are going, if I wake up tomorrow and they...
From $20T to Nearly $40T: Growth Accelerates
I though things might get interesting when we tagged $20 Trillion, we are now closing in on $40 Trillion.......