Market Holds Near Highs as Volatility Crumbles
Despite war, an oil shock, and nonstop tweets, the market is holding near highs and volatility just got crushed. With OPEX coming up next week, @spotgamma and I are back to break it all down. https://t.co/FIJLn2JfZr
Investors Bet Wrong AI Layer; Profits Flow Elsewhere
“The layer you’re investing in may not be where the profits end up.” On the latest @excessreturnpod, we sit down with GMO's Tom Hancock to discuss their excellent recent paper Hype vs. High Conviction. We cover: ☑️the 4-layer AI stack and where...
Walmart Signals Recession, Yet Bullish Signals Remain
The Walmart indicator is flashing recession. But that’s not the full story. On the latest Jim Paulsen Show, we break down what it’s signaling, the implications of the oil shock, and the bullish indicators most investors are missing. 🎙️https://t.co/6nYM17bPMj 🍏https://t.co/JjLRDxh7gP 📺https://t.co/FzjaKKwQ5m
Investing in Inevitable Tech: Wang’s AI Playbook
“I like to invest in inevitabilities.” Anthony Wang, manager of the $12B T. Rowe Price Science and Technology Fund joins us to discuss his approach to finding the inevitable, and where he sees it in tech and AI today. https://t.co/th3u4YuK6L
Asset-Light Myth: Investments Now Hit Income, Not Balance Sheet
"I always thought this idea of asset light was a bit of a myth because if you're just laser focused on investment, you're just realizing the investment was not in the balance sheet as it was historically, it's now...
Volatility Surge Highlights S&P Momentum and Value Shift
With volatility picking up, it is a great time to check back in with @StocktonKatie. We take a look at what the charts are saying about: • S&P 500 momentum • Mag 7 leadership • The shift to value • Gold and oil trends https://t.co/dn9QritHPV
Defy Base Rates Only When Conviction Is Proven
"If you have a strong conviction that they're gonna do something other than the base rate, then you better be very, very good in making that assumption or calculation." Base rates usually win. But the great companies defy them. I thought...
New Show Unpacks AI Impact with Fresh Frameworks
Really excited to launch this new show. This was an exceptional episode. So many great frameworks for analyzing the impact of AI. Here are a few clips as a preview: Listen and subscribe here: Spotify: https://t.co/6a6URmgLQv Apple: https://t.co/Hm9mpeZUis https://t.co/Ch2CEPJI5q
Systematic Strategies for Inflation‑Driven Market Regime Shift
With the recent inflation shock and a rapidly changing market landscape, it’s a good time to think more systematically. On our latest @excessreturnpod, we’re joined by @AahanPrometheus to do just that. We cover: - inflation and energy dynamics - shifting expected returns - trend following -...
Understanding 100‑Baggers: Beyond Traits and Survivorship Bias
This was great from Chris Mayer. You tend to see two reactions to studies like the 100 bagger research: 1. “I’ll just copy the exact traits and find winners.” 2. “It’s all survivorship bias” Chris explains why both miss the point. https://t.co/iYW8itthV3
Weekly Wrap: Oil Shock, Credit Panic, Century-Long Rate Insights
For our weekly wrap, @CultishCreative and I cover all ends of the spectrum. We've got Bob Elliott on the oil shock We've got Larry Swedroe on why private credit panic may be overblown And we've got the 100 Year Thinkers of...
Dissecting Iran War, Oil Shock: Macro, Narrative, Flow Insights
However you want to analyze the Iran war and oil shock, @CultishCreative and I have it covered on the latest Last Call on @excessreturnpod. @dampedspring on macro @EpsilonTheory on narrative @spotgamma on flows @ericpachman on what the jobs data misses https://t.co/bbX3cSwFWe
Private Credit Risks Overstated, Swedroe Says Crisis Unlikely
There has been a lot of talk about the risks of private credit. On our latest @excessreturnpod, @larryswedroe joins us to break down what’s real, what’s misunderstood, and why the talk of a crisis may be overblown. https://t.co/2YaxfJoTXx https://t.co/sJIN95N8lD
War, Volatility Premium, and Oil Shock Stress Fed
Lots of unusual stuff going on in markets right now. A war that’s tough to price, a big vol premium with VIX still in the 20s, and an oil shock putting the Fed in a tough spot. @CultishCreative and I break it...
Vol Premium Soars While VIX Stays Low
Vol premium is near historic highs. But VIX is only 25. On the latest OPEX Effect on @excessreturnpod, @spotgamma explains what’s going on behind the scenes and what it could mean for the market. https://t.co/fKAHUZs21I