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"Shadow Activism": - actionable mid-large cap idea (for wholesale investors only). Mitsui OSK - diversified shipping business. - Market cap US$12.4bn - liquidity US$170m+/day - price/book 0.7x This opportunity looks to have potential for above-market returns through realisation of excess cash and real estate holdings to improve cash returns to shareholders. For wholesale investors, to learn more, visit the link in the comments.
Japan's Public Stocks Valued at One‑Third Private Equity Price
Why do public companies in Japan often trade for 1/3 of the value a private equity fund would pay to acquire them? Or another way to say it, why is the underlying value often worth 3x the public market price? I discuss...
Japan's Take‑Private Deals Turn Hyper‑Competitive Amid Activist Pressure
As the number of take private deals in Japan continues to DOUBLE year on year, the nature of some of those deals is undergoing a tectonic shift. What we are witnessing in some cases is the dismantling of traditional, friendly,...
Voters Overwhelmingly Back CGT and Negative Gearing Reforms
Did you explain to the respondents first that capital is mobile? That Australia already has a productivity problem and that increasing capital gains tax likely makes it worse?
Seek Low‑Beta Stocks for Quality Returns
It has been tough to be a "quality" investor in Japan (and globally) over the last year or so. With low "beta" underperformance at the greatest levels since the TMT boom, it could be time for investors to consider lower-beta...
CGT Discount Removal Hampers Young Wealth Compounding
They’re right only from a dollar value perspective, not from a wealth-growth / impact on wealth compounding perspective. It is easier to earn higher % returns when you have a smaller capital base If you generate higher % returns, assuming...
Value Investing Prioritizes Today's Tangible Assets Over Future Stories
Most investors buy stocks because of a story — a narrative about why the business should be worth more than it is today. The platform is growing. The market is expanding. The product is sticky, the customer base is loyal, and...
Activist Oasis's Kao Board Challenge Fails, Pressure Remains
Have you heard the story of the battle between the "P&G of Japan", Kao Corporation, and one of the largest and most successful Japan-focused shareholder activists? This one has everything. Kao is a household name, with a...
Japan's Topix Cash Payouts Double, Unlock $312bn Potential
Wow. Cash payouts from companies in Japan's broad Topix index have practically doubled since the Tokyo Stock Exchange started telling companies to focus more on capital efficiency. This growth is forecast to continue, as Shrikant Kale points out, . The combination...
Seeking Interest for Weekly Shadow Activist Stock Analyses
Who would like to see regular Senjin Capital analysis of “shadow activist” ideas? That is, where existing activists are involved, but may not have said anything publicly about their thesis? I have seen some complaints that there aren’t enough actionable stock ideas...
Beware: Fake Senjin Capital Job Ads Are Phishing Scams
I have been made aware of fake job advertisements using Senjin Capital’s name as the employer. We are not currently hiring, and when we are hiring you will see a post on this page about it. These ads are likely an...
Activists Target Hidden ONE Cash, Driving Discounted Value
Another standard-looking activist headline, but for those in the know, this situation runs a lot deeper. I’ll explain. Elliott is asking shipping firm Mitsui OS&K for better cash returns to shareholders. Quite a standard approach for activists everywhere, and Japan is...
Japanese Cross‑shareholdings Shield Incumbents, Hurt Shareholders
Shareholders are supreme under Japanese corporate law, but shareholders' economic interests are not. What is the distinction? Japan is (in)famous for its webs of cross-shareholdings. Suppliers, customers, financial institutions own shares in each other, and always support incumbent management with their...
Japan, Australia Currencies Slide Together
The upside to Japan’s risk aversion – ample petroleum reserves The Yen has weakened against the US$ since the Iran war drove the oil price higher, but so too has the AU$. Japan imports most of its energy needs, so a...
Unlock Japan’s Investment Secrets: 10 Key Questions Answered
This morning was for content creation. Watch this space for my filmed answers to the big 10 questions 😅 - What is the downside to following the crowd in the stock market? - How can you create your own upside in stocks? - What...