Jason Goepfert

Jason Goepfert

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Founder of SentimenTrader (now White Oak Consultancy); focuses on breadth/positioning and index/earnings extremes; site verifies.

S&P Hits Record, Home Depot Plunges 25%—Rare Divergence
SocialMay 5, 2026

S&P Hits Record, Home Depot Plunges 25%—Rare Divergence

S&P 500 $SPY at/near all-time high while Home Depot $HD is more than 25% off. 3rd time in 30 years. Oh, well. This time is different. https://t.co/4WQAXlMCTv

By Jason Goepfert
S&P Hits New High with Under 40% Stocks Advancing
SocialMay 1, 2026

S&P Hits New High with Under 40% Stocks Advancing

The S&P 500 $SPY rallied at least 0.25% to a new high. Not even 40% of its stocks rose on the day. This has happened two other times since 1962. LOL, make of it what you will. https://t.co/2WJkbcn7CA

By Jason Goepfert
Tech's Rare +20% Monthly Gains at All‑Time Highs
SocialApr 30, 2026

Tech's Rare +20% Monthly Gains at All‑Time Highs

Here's every time the tech sector had a +20% monthly total return at an all-time high. https://t.co/9aARGfGuZL

By Jason Goepfert
Nasdaq 100 Climbs as only 29% Stocks Rise—28‑year Rarity
SocialApr 29, 2026

Nasdaq 100 Climbs as only 29% Stocks Rise—28‑year Rarity

The Nasdaq 100 $QQQ closed up more than 0.5%. Fewer than 29% of stocks on the Nasdaq advanced today. This has not happened in at least 28 years. https://t.co/L36DesYWH4

By Jason Goepfert
Rare Market Divergence: More Lows Than Highs After Record S&P
SocialApr 29, 2026

Rare Market Divergence: More Lows Than Highs After Record S&P

On Monday, the S&P 500 $SPY closed at a record high. The next day, at least 1% more stocks hit a 52-week low than a 52-week high. In 70+ years of history, that's happened twice. Yesterday was one. January 3, 2000 was...

By Jason Goepfert
Equal‑weight S&P Stalls as Cap‑weight Hits Fresh High
SocialApr 27, 2026

Equal‑weight S&P Stalls as Cap‑weight Hits Fresh High

As stock indices rise, fewer stocks are going along. This is why the S&P 500 equal-weight index $RSP hasn't made a new high for 40 days, while the cap-weight version $SPY just did. In 70 years, this is only the 3rd time...

By Jason Goepfert
Bullish Odds Slip: 58% Chance S&P Rise
SocialApr 23, 2026

Bullish Odds Slip: 58% Chance S&P Rise

Probabilities are becoming less favorable for bulls. Roughly a 58% chance for a higher S&P 500 a year from now, down from 82% a little over a week ago. https://t.co/IpLeBfyhKL

By Jason Goepfert
Next Week Determines Whether Tech Rally Is Bottom
SocialApr 22, 2026

Next Week Determines Whether Tech Rally Is Bottom

Why the coming week is crucial... Tech stocks rallied 20% in 3 weeks. That's (usually) either a market bottom or a near-peak in a bear market rally. The big tell: if buyers persisted over the following week, it was (usually) the former....

By Jason Goepfert
S&P 500’s Rare 13%+ Rally in 13 Days Since 1928
SocialApr 17, 2026

S&P 500’s Rare 13%+ Rally in 13 Days Since 1928

What a remarkable run. Here is every time since 1928 when the S&P 500 rallied to a record by at least 13% (rounded) in 13 days. Don't take this too seriously. https://t.co/YlnHmYAUlZ

By Jason Goepfert
S&P
SocialApr 16, 2026

S&P

The S&P 500 $SPY recovered from a 9% pullback in under 3 months. It hit a new high with few of its stocks participating (net new highs or above moving averages). There has been only one precedent since 1928. People tend to...

By Jason Goepfert
Record S&P Close Would Mark Fifth Fastest Rebound
SocialApr 15, 2026

Record S&P Close Would Mark Fifth Fastest Rebound

If the S&P 500 closes at a record, it will be the 5th-quickest recovery from a deep pullback. The others weren't necessarily all-clear signs. https://t.co/RDoP06CRSs

By Jason Goepfert
S&P Rebounds in April Five Times, Hinting Momentum-Seasonality
SocialApr 14, 2026

S&P Rebounds in April Five Times, Hinting Momentum-Seasonality

This is the 5th time the S&P recovered from a YTD pullback in April. Yeah yeah, tiny sample size. The only purpose is to show the few similar cases of momentum + seasonality. https://t.co/KayfEI5bgb

By Jason Goepfert
S&P's 6% Six-Day Rally Raises One-Year Return Odds to 81%
SocialApr 8, 2026

S&P's 6% Six-Day Rally Raises One-Year Return Odds to 81%

This is now a powerful "triple six" rally. The S&P rallied 6% in 6 days from a 6-month low. It failed in 2001 and was painful in 2008. But otherwise, excellent one-year returns. It bumped up the probability of a positive one-year return...

By Jason Goepfert
Speculators Panic: Smallest Options Traders Surge Put Buying
SocialApr 6, 2026

Speculators Panic: Smallest Options Traders Surge Put Buying

The most speculative traders panicked. For only the 3rd week ever, the smallest options traders spent 1/3 of their volume buying put options to open. The only other weeks were at the height of the Covid washout. https://t.co/rkG2ARDrLF

By Jason Goepfert