Jonah Lupton

PLTR's Explosive Growth Justifies Premium Valuation

Hard to love the $PLTR valuation/multiple. Hard not to love the $PLTR fundamentals. Q1 results: +85% YoY revenue growth +16% QoQ revenue growth +104% YoY US growth +133% YoY US commercial growth +84% YoY US government growth 60% operating margins Q2 guidance: $1.8B revenues... implies +80% YoY growth FY2026 guidance: $7.656B revenues... implies +71% YoY growth Based on my estimates for the next 12 months... $PLTR is now trading under 40x NTM ev/revs for the first time in 18+ months $PLTR might be slightly overvalued but there's only a few publicly traded companies on the planet with better fundamentals and their names on Micron and Hynix which ironically trade at less than 6x NTM EPS. Based on my estimates for the next 12 months... $PLTR is now trading at 85x NTM EPS which isn't too crazy when you consider that EPS is growing at least +100% YoY in FY2026 and might grow another +60% YoY in FY2027. Personally I think it's unfair to judge $PLTR's valuation based on a revenue multiple because their margins are so incredible. $PLTR at 85x NTM EPS is expensive but it's not insane if their EPS grows at a 80% CAGR for the next 2 years. I guess the question for investors is what does EPS growth look like in FY2027, FY2028 and FY2029... and whether that P/E multiple will need to compress further and whether the EPS growth can offset the multiple compression whereby the stock still has upside from here over the next 2-3 years. It's possible that $PLTR needs to spend a little more time growing into their current multiple. Think about this... $CRWD now trades at a higher NTM P/E multiple than $PLTR ...yet... $CRWD growth rates are literally less than 1/3 of $PLTR's growth rates. $CRWD is trading at 92x NTM EPS with EPS expected to grow at a 29% CAGR for the next 2 years. No idea how you justify this. This means $CRWD's PEG ratio is considerably higher than $PLTR's PEG ratio because you're factoring in growth rates... tbh, it's not even close... $PLTR looks cheap compared to $CRWD haha $PLTR might be 20% overvalued but $CRWD might be 50% overvalued. NFA. DYOR. *We own $PLTR at @FirstWaveFund and would most likely continue holding our position as long as $PLTR stays above $120 Feel free to share your thoughts on $PLTR or $CRWD and which stock you'd rather own for the next 2-3 years considering their respective fundamentals and valuations.