Lance Lambert

Lance Lambert

Creator
0 followers

Co-founder & EIC at ResiClub; deep analysis of U.S. housing market trends with regional lens.

Mortgage Rates Dip, Spread to Treasuries Narrows to 212 Bps
SocialApr 7, 2026

Mortgage Rates Dip, Spread to Treasuries Narrows to 212 Bps

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.44% Same day last year: 6.82% ------------------- 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.33% Spread today: 212 bps

By Lance Lambert
Inventory Near 2019 Levels Signals Slower Home Price Growth
SocialApr 6, 2026

Inventory Near 2019 Levels Signals Slower Home Price Growth

Back when I worked at Fortune in early 2022, as it became clear the Pandemic Housing Boom was nearing its final inning, I suggested to readers that a quick-and-dirty metric to follow in the post-pandemic period would be active inventory...

By Lance Lambert
New Leases Get Rent Relief as Switching Costs Drop
SocialApr 1, 2026

New Leases Get Rent Relief as Switching Costs Drop

There’s something your landlord doesn’t want you to know: switching costs in the rental market are low right now New leases are seeing more rent relief right now than renewal leases The reason? New leases must compete on the open market amid...

By Lance Lambert
Lennar's Home Incentives Triple in One Year
SocialMar 31, 2026

Lennar's Home Incentives Triple in One Year

Lennar—America’s second-largest homebuilder—had to spend $62,700 on incentives per average home sale last year Back in 2022, that figure was $17,300 via @ResidentialClub

By Lance Lambert
AI Data Centers Turn to Mass Timber for Greener Footprint
SocialMar 29, 2026

AI Data Centers Turn to Mass Timber for Greener Footprint

AI Data Centers. Wood you look at that. Data centers are typically constructed primarily of steel and concrete—but as the AI data center wave accelerates, Meta and Microsoft are pivoting to build them with mass timber to help reach their...

By Lance Lambert
Two‑Thirds of Top 300 Metro Markets See Price Gains
SocialMar 28, 2026

Two‑Thirds of Top 300 Metro Markets See Price Gains

Among the nation's 300's largest metro area housing markets... LEFT: The 99 markets with falling year-over-year home prices RIGHT: The 201 markets with rising year-over-year home prices Maps via @ResidentialClub

By Lance Lambert
KB Home Sees Demand Rise in Jacksonville, Orlando; Tampa Lags
SocialMar 26, 2026

KB Home Sees Demand Rise in Jacksonville, Orlando; Tampa Lags

Giant homebuilder KB Home is seeing some demand improvement in Jacksonville and Orlando—while Tampa still remains challenged

By Lance Lambert
Iran Conflict May Drive Homebuilding Costs Higher
SocialMar 26, 2026

Iran Conflict May Drive Homebuilding Costs Higher

KB Home warns Iran conflict could push homebuilding costs higher if oil prices spiral out of control @kbhome CEO Robert McGibney: "a lot of the products that go into a home, there's petroleum that's involved in those products" ResiClub PRO report https://t.co/MiVXNJ3ybP

By Lance Lambert
Mortgage Rates Dip, Spread Widens to 214 Bps
SocialMar 25, 2026

Mortgage Rates Dip, Spread Widens to 214 Bps

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.48% Same day last year: 6.80% -------------------- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.34% Spread today: 214 bps

By Lance Lambert
Florida Housing: Extreme Booms, Sharper Downturns
SocialMar 24, 2026

Florida Housing: Extreme Booms, Sharper Downturns

When it comes to housing, Florida doesn't do "average" It overheats more during booms—and corrects more during downturns Florida is the epicenter of the boom-bust phenomenon https://t.co/q5q3SyDu44

By Lance Lambert
Florida Housing Downturn Softens After Post‑pandemic Boom
SocialMar 24, 2026

Florida Housing Downturn Softens After Post‑pandemic Boom

The intensity of Florida's post-pandemic housing boom correction is easing Softness—and even outright weakness—remains across parts of Florida’s housing market. However, the intensity of the downturn in Florida has eased over the past 6 months

By Lance Lambert
Florida's Housing Boom Peaks, Then Corrects Dramatically
SocialMar 24, 2026

Florida's Housing Boom Peaks, Then Corrects Dramatically

What's happening across Florida housing markets, as told by 10 charts Florida experienced one of the most intense Pandemic Housing Booms—and subsequent corrections. Here’s where things stand now. My latest ResiClub PRO report https://t.co/Nesqr0w1OL

By Lance Lambert
Join Roofstock's Survey for SFR & BTR Operators
SocialMar 23, 2026

Join Roofstock's Survey for SFR & BTR Operators

Are you a single-family rental (SFR) owner/operator/manager or a build-to-rent (BTR) owner/operator/developer? If yes, we’re inviting you to participate in the @Roofstock-ResiClub BTR and SFR Housing Survey: https://t.co/XsJUYtBYDF

By Lance Lambert
Most Major Metro Home Prices Cooling; New Orleans Defies Trend
SocialMar 20, 2026

Most Major Metro Home Prices Cooling; New Orleans Defies Trend

47 of the nation's 50 largest metro area housing markets have a weaker year-over-year home price shift this early spring than a year ago The biggest exception is New Orleans—which is firming up after passing through a 'material' correction Analysis via @ResidentialClub...

By Lance Lambert
U.S. Home Prices Edge Up Slightly, Still 43% Above 2020
SocialMar 19, 2026

U.S. Home Prices Edge Up Slightly, Still 43% Above 2020

U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, rose +0.1% month-over-month between January 2026 and February 2026. Year-over-year: +0.4% Since the 2022 peak: +1.6% Since March 2020: +43.2% Table via @ResidentialClub https://t.co/LC4jle3nVp

By Lance Lambert
Top Homebuilders Trust ResiClub for Data-Driven Decisions
SocialMar 18, 2026

Top Homebuilders Trust ResiClub for Data-Driven Decisions

Teams inside major homebuilders, lenders, and operators are using ResiClub research and analysis to inform real decisions—including firms like Meritage Homes, a giant homebuilder ranked No. 554 on the Fortune 1000. That’s exactly what we’re aiming for: clear, data-driven housing market...

By Lance Lambert
Mortgage Rates Dip, Spread Hits 206 Bps
SocialMar 18, 2026

Mortgage Rates Dip, Spread Hits 206 Bps

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.31% Same day last year: 6.78% 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.25% Spread today: 206 bps

By Lance Lambert
China Housing Prices Could Fall Another 10% by 2027
SocialMar 18, 2026

China Housing Prices Could Fall Another 10% by 2027

China's housing market has been undergoing a nasty correction since '22 Goldman Sachs: "If China follows the typical timeline of housing busts around the world, there might be another 10% drop in home prices ahead, and real prices may not...

By Lance Lambert
Zillow Launches Preview, Showing Pre‑market Listings with Major Brokers
SocialMar 17, 2026

Zillow Launches Preview, Showing Pre‑market Listings with Major Brokers

Zillow fires back at Compass/Rocket/Redfin Today, Zillow announced "Zillow Preview", a "product" that makes "pre-market" home listings visible on their site Launch partners include Keller Williams, REMAX, HomeServices of America, Side and United Real Estate

By Lance Lambert
Housing Softening Turns Sellers Into Accidental Landlords
SocialMar 16, 2026

Housing Softening Turns Sellers Into Accidental Landlords

A jump in "accidental landlords" often occurs when a housing market softens/weakens Some sellers list their home, fail to sell, and then test the rental market—often temporarily—while they wait for for-sale conditions to improve https://t.co/dFiL2EDnQJ

By Lance Lambert
Lennar Sees Modest Tariff Impact as Costs Fall
SocialMar 15, 2026

Lennar Sees Modest Tariff Impact as Costs Fall

After initial have a concerned reaction to tariffs back in spring 2025, most giant public homebuilders walked back their tariff concerns last summer. That commentary shift reflected a combination of factors: some of the proposed tariffs didn’t ultimately go through,...

By Lance Lambert
Lennar Prices Fell 13.6% After Incentive Adjustment
SocialMar 15, 2026

Lennar Prices Fell 13.6% After Incentive Adjustment

If you’re active on “Housing Twitter,” you’ll likely see charts circulating this coming week that show Lennar’s average selling price down roughly -23.8% from its 2022 peak. It’s worth noting, however, that the figure reported by Lennar is net of...

By Lance Lambert
Institutional Pullback Threatens Builder Supply, Says Lennar
SocialMar 15, 2026

Institutional Pullback Threatens Builder Supply, Says Lennar

Lennar says pushing institutional homebuyers out of the housing market could cause big builders to 'build less supply' Lennar CEO Stuart Miller said on Friday that institutional investors are already pulling back further this year given the heightened policy pressure

By Lance Lambert
Japanese Builders Accelerate U.S. Homebuilder Acquisitions
SocialMar 14, 2026

Japanese Builders Accelerate U.S. Homebuilder Acquisitions

WOW. ANOTHER ONE. Japanese builders are rapidly acquiring U.S. homebuilders—striking their third deal in a month This week, Japan-based Hajime Construction agreed to buy Utah-based Wright Homes My latest for ResiClub: https://t.co/FgJwjNewbx

By Lance Lambert
2026 Mortgage Rates Show Record‑Low 42‑bp Spread
SocialMar 13, 2026

2026 Mortgage Rates Show Record‑Low 42‑bp Spread

Since 2000, the average year has seen an 87 bps range between the highest 30-year fixed mortgage rate reading in the calendar year and the lowest reading So far in 2026, that range has been 42 bps Lowest this year: 5.99% Highest...

By Lance Lambert
Lennar's Margins Hit 2009 Low Amid Aggressive Incentives
SocialMar 12, 2026

Lennar's Margins Hit 2009 Low Amid Aggressive Incentives

Lennar—America's second largest homebuilder—gross margins fall to the lowest levels since 2009 Among giant public homebuilders, Lennar has been the most aggressive in using affordability adjustments/incentives to maintain volumes/take market share @ResidentialClub research

By Lance Lambert
Schatz Calls 7‑Year Sale Clause Drafting Error, Bill Closed
SocialMar 11, 2026

Schatz Calls 7‑Year Sale Clause Drafting Error, Bill Closed

WOAH Senator Brian Schatz says the provision that forces future build-to-rent development to be sold after 7 years is a "drafting error" But he added that: "But what we were told last week is: The bill is closed." via @Eleanor_Mueller

By Lance Lambert
Institutional Homebuying Ban: What It Actually Changes
SocialMar 11, 2026

Institutional Homebuying Ban: What It Actually Changes

What the institutional homebuying ban actually does, according to ResiClub’s reading of the bipartisan Senate housing bill Me + @MalasMeghan's latest ResiClub PRO report: https://t.co/GIci6e5eqY

By Lance Lambert
AMH Offers Lease Buyouts for Tenants Amid Builder Aggression
SocialMar 10, 2026

AMH Offers Lease Buyouts for Tenants Amid Builder Aggression

Institutional landlord AMH says some Florida homebuilders are buying out their tenants leases "Some of the builders in our Florida markets got pretty aggressive, and we're willing to buy out some of our leases for our residents who were...

By Lance Lambert
30-Year Mortgage Rates Drop 63 Bps, Spread Narrows
SocialMar 10, 2026

30-Year Mortgage Rates Drop 63 Bps, Spread Narrows

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.09% Same day last year: 6.72% -------------------- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.12% Spread today: 197 bps

By Lance Lambert
Feb 2026 Home Sales Fall 17% Below
SocialMar 10, 2026

Feb 2026 Home Sales Fall 17% Below

U.S. existing home sales total 257,000 in February 2026 Since 2000, February has averaged 310,000 U.S. existing home sales Resale turnover remains constrained Table via @ResidentialClub Data via @nardotrealtor https://t.co/4g2dE9eSU5

By Lance Lambert
Lennar's Q4 Incentives Jump to 14%, Outpacing PulteGroup
SocialMar 10, 2026

Lennar's Q4 Incentives Jump to 14%, Outpacing PulteGroup

Q4 2024 incentives rate: Lennar —> 10.0% PulteGroup —> 7.2% Q4 2025 incentives rate: Lennar —> 14.0% PulteGroup —> 9.9%

By Lance Lambert
Inventory Growth Slows, February Still Outpaces Season
SocialMar 8, 2026

Inventory Growth Slows, February Still Outpaces Season

This ResiClub table helps you see through the seasonal inventory shift noise The inventory growth slope has decelerated from last year However, based on the February figure—the most important print of the year—we’re pacing a tad above the normal seasonal pace https://t.co/6IrsSaR9mW

By Lance Lambert
New‑construction Markets Naturally Show Higher Baseline Metrics
SocialMar 8, 2026

New‑construction Markets Naturally Show Higher Baseline Metrics

One thing to keep in mind with this analysis is that some markets have significantly higher baselines than others for this metric. Heavier new-construction markets, for example, usually have higher levels of this. https://t.co/7R3355tzyg

By Lance Lambert
Essex's Housing Supply Dwarfs Charlotte's Per 1,000 Residents
SocialMar 8, 2026

Essex's Housing Supply Dwarfs Charlotte's Per 1,000 Residents

For every 1,000 local residents, there are: 2 homes for sale in Essex County, NJ right now 43 homes for sale in Charlotte County, FL right now via ResiClub Terminal

By Lance Lambert
Lennar Tests Tiny Homes Amid Housing Affordability Crisis
SocialMar 8, 2026

Lennar Tests Tiny Homes Amid Housing Affordability Crisis

Housing affordability remains so strained that giant homebuilder Lennar continues testing how willing buyers are to go smaller Price: $174,990 3 beds 2.5 baths Sq ft: 1,360 Houston metro (Huffman, TX)

By Lance Lambert
Banning Institutional Investors May Worsen Housing Affordability
SocialMar 6, 2026

Banning Institutional Investors May Worsen Housing Affordability

'The housing paradox: why banning institutional investors could make affordability worse' Commentary by Amherst CEO Sean Dobson in @FortuneMagazine (no paywall) https://t.co/mXFQpGRK2m

By Lance Lambert
All Major Homebuilders Face Year‑Over‑Year Margin Compression
SocialMar 6, 2026

All Major Homebuilders Face Year‑Over‑Year Margin Compression

All 11 of the biggest homebuilders tracked by ResiClub are seeing year-over-year margin compression Homebuilders—especially those with a big presence in some of the softer markets in Texas and Florida—are still in cost-cutting mode ResiClub PRO report: https://t.co/w9iTXbeCx0

By Lance Lambert
Rate Shock Slashes Listings; Gradual Recovery Underway
SocialMar 6, 2026

Rate Shock Slashes Listings; Gradual Recovery Underway

As soon as the rate shock occurred—and switching costs surged—we saw U.S. new listings fall a notch as some of that attempted churn was knocked off That effect was most acute out of the gate Ever since, we’ve slowly seen new listings...

By Lance Lambert
Japanese Builders Accelerate U.S. Homebuilder Acquisitions
SocialMar 6, 2026

Japanese Builders Accelerate U.S. Homebuilder Acquisitions

Japan’s big bet on the U.S. housing market got even bigger last week Japanese builders are rapidly acquiring U.S. homebuilders—now Daiwa House is buying United Homes That came just 10 days after Japan-based Sumitomo Forestry said it's buying Tri Point Homes...

By Lance Lambert
Florida Inventory Dips; Connecticut Buyers Still Stuck
SocialMar 6, 2026

Florida Inventory Dips; Connecticut Buyers Still Stuck

Florida is one of the few places where active inventory is down a little year-over-year right now Also: Connecticut homebuyers still can't catch a break Analysis via @ResidentialClub https://t.co/cp8T0N2iHu https://t.co/OFTPOagq2t

By Lance Lambert
Fannie Mae Predicts Steady 6% Mortgage Rates Through 2027
SocialMar 6, 2026

Fannie Mae Predicts Steady 6% Mortgage Rates Through 2027

Fannie Mae: Get use to these mortgage rates Fannie Mae's forecast for the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate: Q3 2026 --> 6.0% Q4 2026 --> 6.0% Q1 2027 --> 6.0% Q2 2027 --> 6.0% Q3 2027 --> 6.0% Q4 2027 --> 6.0%

By Lance Lambert
NAHB Warns Congressional Housing Bill Will Curb Supply
SocialMar 4, 2026

NAHB Warns Congressional Housing Bill Will Curb Supply

National Association of Home Builders: The Congressional housing package being pushed through right now would HURT housing supply NAHB: The latest version of the bill would 'undermine' build-to-rent construction The @NAHBhome email obtained by @PunchbowlNews/@BrendanPedersen 👇

By Lance Lambert
Fast‑track Housing Startup Leaves Dozens Unfinished Near Austin
SocialMar 4, 2026

Fast‑track Housing Startup Leaves Dozens Unfinished Near Austin

Boom to bust. Onx Homes came to Austin MSA in 2022—backed by $167 million in investor capital—w/ a plan to deploy a rapid construction process (builds completed in under 60 days) Now several dozen of its half-built homes are sitting neglected about...

By Lance Lambert
New Construction Opportunities for Mom‑Pop Investors – Join Webinar
SocialMar 3, 2026

New Construction Opportunities for Mom‑Pop Investors – Join Webinar

Should mom-and-pop single-family investors consider new construction? On Thursday at 3 pm ET (noon PT), I'm hosting a webinar with the team behind the Lennar Investor Marketplace. To join the March 5th webinar, use this link to register: https://t.co/HOSCTKZc96

By Lance Lambert
Luxury Builders See Low FHA Use; Affordable Homes High
SocialMar 2, 2026

Luxury Builders See Low FHA Use; Affordable Homes High

Homebuilders with the most—and least—FHA exposure 2% of Toll Brothers buyers use FHA financing 46% of LGI Homes buyers use FHA It makes sense… Toll Brothers average price is $1.19M LGI Homes average price is $364K ResiClub PRO report: https://t.co/vTkPhe0k9z

By Lance Lambert
Mortgage Rates Drop a Year
SocialMar 2, 2026

Mortgage Rates Drop a Year

BACK TO A 6-HANDLE The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.12% Same day last year: 6.74% ------------------ 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.06% Spread today: 206 bps

By Lance Lambert
Reduced Listing Transparency Sparks Political Pressure, Consumers Resist
SocialMar 2, 2026

Reduced Listing Transparency Sparks Political Pressure, Consumers Resist

If listing transparency meaningfully declines in the housing market, political pressure will follow, IMO. Consumers are unlikely to relinquish the market access they’ve gained over the past decade-plus.

By Lance Lambert
LA Metro Land Value Doubles National Average at 68%
SocialMar 1, 2026

LA Metro Land Value Doubles National Average at 68%

In the Los Angeles–Long Beach–Anaheim, CA metro, land accounts for 67.7% of the total property value. That's 2X the national average. If you’re not already following ResiClub on X, show your support: @ResidentialClub https://t.co/n4Tlenhfco

By Lance Lambert