Asia Unites on China Threat While NATO Stumbles
Whereas NATO countries can’t agree on China as the enemy, Asian countries are not in doubt
NATO Shifts From Dialogue to Realpolitik Escalation
Escalation on the NATO alliance - it will soon become realpolitics in stead of talks for European politicians
Europe Risks Split: West Eyes China, East Aligns with US
Europe could be fracturing in a Western part, that orients towards China and an eastern part that orient towards USA The Logic is that since China is supporting Russian war in Ukraine, countries close to Russia cannot orient towards China.
Global Leaders Grow From Scratch, Not M&A
Building global leaders is not done via M&A. They are buildt from 0 - 1 and then go from 1 - 100
Rising Economic Pressure on Iran, China Faces Scrutiny
Economic pressure on Iran goes up. Also pressure on China to stop supporting Iran financially and military
Danish Media Misframes US as Strait Blockade Villain
Just to describe the state media in Denmark. In yesterdays news national explained: 1. US is now blocking strait of Hormuz (not: US is blocking ships to or from IRAN, but strait is open) 2. Economic crisis imminent (narrative: due to US...
Europe's Weakness Limits Its Challenge to US
Seems like Europe is siding with China and Iran. USA on the other hand is in war with Iran and Cold War with China. To me it seems like Europe is escalating against USA, and I would then expect USA...
EU Disunity over China Undermines US‑NATO Cohesion
When every EU nation has its own foreign policy agenda, EU as a whole can't navigate the Cold War 2.0. Spain partnering with China will have consequences for the US relationship with all EU members. The issue is even bigger...
Shutting Oil Wells Risks Permanent Damage Without Pressure Relief
Oilwells that are shut down make be permanently damaged, so not being able to take the pressure off is a major problem
Europe‑US Strategic Gap Widens as Spain, Germany Deepen China Ties
Good write on military strategic gap between Europe and US and the inplications. The economical actions of Spain and Germany increasing ties with China will only make matters Worse.
US Global Police Era Ends; China Rises, Europe Resists
Fact is that the past 40 years in an abnormality caused by the dominante of the USA enabling USA to police the world. With the rise of China that dominance is over and the world is back to normal. Europa...
Globalization, Not Valuation, Drives Index Decline; Seek New NABOTS
One thing most misunderstand about “https://t.co/OjEtVHRmkY” is that the problem for the index was not valuation, but globalization. Asian hardware producers killed to US hardwareproducers in the zeroes. So “PE-analysts” has ever since missed the train because of misunderstood fear of...
China Likely to Stay Passive on US Iran Threat
This Will be tested very soon, but China has blinked once, so if USA threatens to obliterate Iranian oil infrastructure China will probably blink again.
Negotiating Safe Passage Signals Acceptance of Iran's Law Violations
Countries negotiating with Iran on safe passage in Hormuz is accepting Iran violating international law - in other words they accept that international law only applies when someone police the law (which is reality)
Europe's Defense Hinges on Tech Access, Not Weapons
If Europe want to defend itself it starts with asking China or USA for access to: 1. Advanced chips 2. advanced AI-models 3. access to advanced Intelligence 4. Access to advanced communications rails Only when all of the above Can be obtained it starts...
Europe's Dependence Makes US Alliance Politically Unsustainable
Meloni can't be reelected if she sees USA as an ally. I think most European politicians faces the same reality. Therefore the break between USA and Europa is probably a done deal. However Europe can't defend itself, is reliant on energy,...
Europe Can't Defend Itself Without U.S. Support
'Can Europe defend itself without USA' - I prompted ChatGPT, I agree with the answer which is no. Do notice what ChatGPT suggest is needed for future defence: Short answer: No — not in the near term. Maybe in the...
AI Disrupts All Value Chains, Erasing Traditional Moats
Phamageddon incoming - AI will change every single valuechain. So all the moats people have talked about might be about to vanish.
Media's Duty vs Clickbait: Why False Stories Spread
There are two interesting questions here: 1. The obligation: Do media get to transmit things they should know are false? 2. The motivation: Do they do it for political reasons or just because it creates more clicks?
Europe May Force US Into Baltic Defense Alliance
So France, Spain, Ireland, Denmark is going to fight Russia in the Baltics if it comes to that? I still think that the european states, that neighbor Russia will seek US into a US defense alliance when it comes to real...
Future Wars Will Boost Tech Dependency; Europe Lags
And the dependency will grow in the future, since war will become even higher tech, and Europe is still only talking about investing in tech
Europe Faces Multi‑Front Naval Threats Without US Oversight
European nations will be a punching ball for Russia, China, the Huthies, Iran and ? on the seas without USA policing the seas.
European Involvement Blocks Chinese Missile Aid to Iran
This is why it is so important for Europa to help create a stabil situation. European participation would make it politically hard for China to support Iran with missiles and drones. Chinese support could make it impossible for USA to...
France's China Pivot Fuels Iran Arms, Threatens West
I have been saying for weeks that the reason EU should participate in a coalition was NOT for defense reasons, but to create a strong political alliance, that China would have to respect for economic reasons. Now France has begun...
Rutte’s Facts Outline NATO’s Future Challenges
Mark Rutte explaining what he thinks are the facts. This is important information, because it will help you (Politicians, businessleader, money manager) to understand what could happen in the future with NATO. (This tweet is not pro- or against Trump, it...
Future Wars Will Be Fought by Tech, Not Soldiers
Future wars will not be fought with men between 17 and 45 years of age. Future wars will be fought with automatic weapons, which will be powered by leading tech which will be powered by energy and startups. So I...
North Korea's Unique Path Explains Its Nuclear Arsenal
The only good example here is NorthKorea - what not happened in NK - which is why they have nukes.
Finland's Iran-China Talks Risk US‑NATO Tensions
The NATO problem is that USA sees China as the enemy. Iran, Russia and China are allies. So when Finland discusses the war in Iran with China the relationship with US is going to be problematic.
1969 NASA Relied Solely on Sealed Fairchild Chip
And it was done in 1969 using a Fairchild semiconductor chip. As I have heard the story, NASA had to chose between either manual navigation or automatic navigation, because the chips had to in a sealed system to avoid moisture...
Europe's Iran Deal Without Hard Power Is Naïve
Signing a deal with Iran without hard power (fighter jets flying over Theran) to back it up would be immensely naive, so if it is true that Europa is negotiating with Iran it seems ... unrealistic ☹️
Shift From GDP to Statecraft for Better Forecasts
This YouTube video in 45 minutes explains the bigger picture of the world right now. It makes a lot of sense. You can have your own political opinions, but what is unfolding globally follows a clear logic. Michael Every has actually forecasted many...
NATO Misaligned: Europe and US Opposite on Russia, China
Yes, the NATO issue is misalignment. Europes enemy is Russia and Europa sees China as a partner whereas USAs enemy is China and Russia as a partner is better than fighting both China and Russia.
Europe Will Rearm Regardless; Neighbors Seek New Security Guarantees
1. NATO or not, Europa will rearm (which is actually the discussion that started everything) 2. If NATO ruptures the countries nabouring Russia, ie Baltikum, Finland, Polen etc will need to seek Ukranian or US security garanties / alliance
Media Repeats Questions to Manipulate Public Narrative
A way the media affects the narrative is by asking the same Q again and again. For 6 months Bloomberg was asking "Is there an AI-boble" and eventually the non tech part of the market started to question "ROI on...
NATO’s Threat Split: US vs Europe’s Conflicting Alliances
NATOs core problem is misaligment: USAs enemy is China, but Europa sees China as a partner. Europas enemy is Russia but USA would like to do a reverse Nixon with Russia to weaking the Dragonbear ties. Europa supports Ukraine to fight against Russia...
Bessent’s Comment Signals Strength; Europe Likely Stays Out
A comment strong that signals strength, since it abandons one of the 3 main scenarios (that US goes home). This sounds like they a having succes. What remains TBD is if Europe is participating in the coalition (unlikely), before the...
Europe Must Choose: US Alliance or China‑Russia Bloc
This article is actually correct, but gets the context wrong: The true context is the misaligment of Europas and US objectives Europe is focusing on Russia and sees China as partner. However China is USAs enemy, and therefore Europa can’t...
Europe Stuck Between China Dependency and US Reliance
Yes, this is the key question right now. And the answer is No because Europes economy depends on China, but also Yes, because we need American defense, energy, tech and trade. The alternative is Russian energy, Chinese Tech, defense and Trade So...
China-U.S. Parity Threatens Europe, Gulf Eyes New Alliance
These are hard words, and will create resentment. Fact of the matter is that they are true. China and US are equals and in a few years China could be stronger than US in many ways. Therefore Dunroe doctrine is...
NATO Split: US Sees China as Threat, Europe Partners
Agree with a lot of this below. I think an important context is the misalignment in NATO around China. USA considers China the main enemy/rival, Europa considers China a partner. (NATO was built to defend against Sovjetunionen)
Cold War with China Underm
This is important 👇 1. USA is in Cold War with China 2. Europe is economically dependent on China. Something has to change because 1+2 is incompatible with a partnership, which is why the partnership is deteriorating
Only US and China Can Police Hormuz Strait
This is important especially since US and China are the only countries able to ‘police’ the strait of Hormuz
Europe Must Choose: Align with the US or China
I think your opinion here is shared by the European elite. Now: 1. Consider that US's geopolitical rival is China (which Europa would rather coorporate with and rely on) 2. Then think about what the implications of...
Europe‑US Alliance Needed for Global Peace, Amid Middle East Chaos
I think this is more about Europe - war ends when Europe is entering on US side, because China needs a good relation with Europe. When Europa partners with USA (Trade, energy, defense and tech) the West has the upperhand...
Waiting Keeps Strait Open, Avoids Disaster
There are 3 options atm: 1. Call it a victory destroy as much as possible and go home - a disaster for the west. 2. USA secures the strait alone - a potential disaster for USA and especially a political...
Europe Must Intervene Now to Stop Chinese Gulf Takeover
Trump prepares to end the campaign in Iran, but offers to help an international coalition policing the Gulf and the strait. Very important for Europa to think long term here. If USA leaves now, the Gulf will no longer be...
Joint Hormuz Securitization Needed Before US Exits
This is the US off-ramp plan. However the best solution for the west is a joint securitization of Hormuz (secures the strait, makes control over Iran permanent, and creates leverage towards China) US is unlikely to do this alone, thus they...
US May Abandon Hormuz, Destroy Iran’s Oil Infrastructure
Here is what I think will happen if USA can't keep strait of Hormuz open - I do think that USA will have a very low threshold for pain in the Gulf because Trump is elected on avoiding 'forever wars'....
Russia's Neighbors Shift Away From Europe, Remain Pro‑US
Countries bordering Russia is not going to rely on defense from Europe in the future. Poland, the Baltic, Finland and Ukraine are not going to be hardliners against USA
China's Arms Support Could Endanger European Flights over Iran
I think it is much more a matter of taking a side. If China starts sending weapons then European planes in the sky over Iran will matter, because China supports shooting down European planes