Trump's Policies Turn Inflation From Crisis to Choice
Covid inflation was a global phenomenon. It went away when the covid supply shocks went away. Today, inflation is a policy choice. And all of Trump's policies so far have been--to one degree or another--inflationary War: inflationary Deficit: inflationary Tariffs: inflationary Politicizing the Fed/loose money advocacy: inflationary Immigration: inflationary Cuts to renewables: inflationary Corruption: inflationary
S&P Hits 103 Highs; Inequality Defies Policy
The $SPX has made 103 all-time highs since the Fed started shrinking the balance sheet. If inequality increases with QE and low policy rates and also increases with QT and high policy rates, maybe inequality is not about monetary policy. Warsh knows...
Market Always Finds Fault in Fed Transparency, Past or Present
The market will go back to criticizing the Fed for lack of transparency the way it used to before the Fed ramped up its transparency. The only constant is that the market is always find something to complain about in...
Stop Treasury's TGA Use to Shrink Fed Balance Sheet
One serious way to reduce demand for reserves--which is the only way you can reduce the balance sheet from here--is to get Treasury to stop using the TGA. Treasury's use of the TGA both increases the minimum necessary size of...
QT Arguments Clash with QE-Driven Inflation Narrative
You see a lot of people try to argue that quantitative tightening didn’t tank markets and reduce inflation because it came out of the RRP. But you can’t argue this if you also argue that QE going into the RRP...
Warsh Vows Monetary Policy Independence From Trump
Warsh: I'll make monetary policy decisions independent of any advice or pressure from President Trump Also Warsh:
Warsh Denies President Asked About Rate Cuts
Warsh says reports that the president asked him if he would lower rates if nominated were fake news.
Fed Must Prioritize Chronic Inflation Risk Management
Warsh addressed none of this in his nomination hearing. FTR, I think inflation is more of a chronic risk than an acute problem, but risk management is central to what the Fed is supposed to be about.
Fed Balance Sheet Shrinkage Doesn't Cool Inflation or Markets
The notion that Warsh shrinking the balance sheet would put downward pressure on inflation or that it would deflate asset prices is one of the most ludicrous propositions that anyone following monetary policy and markets over the past 20 years...
Warsh Pushed 2008 Rate Hike over Oil Price Worries
The reason Warsh wanted to hike rates in 2008, just months before the financial collapse was...wait for it...concern over high oil prices
Warsh's Trump Ties and Consistently Poor Fed Calls
It's not just that Warsh would be beholden to Trump. That is the most important thing, but it also overshadows the fact that his Fed calls down the years have been bad--not uniquely bad, but systematically bad. I'm old enough...
Every Trump Policy Proves Inflationary, Says Analyst
Dog-walking and Kernenfreude aside, all of Trump's policies have been--to one degree or another--inflationary. War: inflationary Deficit: inflationary Tariffs: inflationary Politicizing the Fed/loose money advocacy: inflationary Immigration: inflationary Cuts to renewables: inflationary Corruption: inflationary Trump cheerleaders will mumble something about the deregulation fairy and the productivity fairy...
Iran Takes First Control of Strait, Keeps Nuclear Arsenal
Iran will control and toll the Strait for the 1st time. They keep their nuclear program and enriched stockpile. They keep their missiles. Thank you Mr president for your attention to this matter.
We Handed Iran Leverage; Now They'll Wield It
Now that we've powered up Iran's use of the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, they're going to want to wield it. It's the only major card they now have. And we gave it to them.
Self‑sufficiency Exists, Yet Rewiring Distribution Is Costly
Technically, we have self-sufficiency, but it would be an expensive and lengthy process to re-work our entire distribution & refining system to tap into it. The internal distribution system (shipping, pipelines, etc) would have to be totally rewired to re-route...