Claim: US Entrepreneurial Dynamism Still Outpaces Pre‑2020 (Sarcastic)
Fortunately, you are probably not aware that the (assumed) level of entrepreneurial dynamism in the US labor market continues to exceed all periods prior to 2020... /s https://t.co/pbpkvBkZ3D
AI Shifts Firm: Seniors Rise, Juniors Fall
Deeply misunderstood. Within firm behavior has shifted dramatically due to AI/LLM implementation. Senior employee value up, junior employee value negative. No fire, no hire… for now.
CPI Overstates Inflation; Truflation Reveals Gas‑Driven Deflation
Remember the CPI is a one year fixed basket, which by definition ignores demand destruction in categories that rise in price (gasoline) and demand substitution in areas with falling prices. By definition this leads to an overstated CPI vs actual...
Supply Boost Beats Demand Subsidies in German Price Control
In a shocking turn of events, German economists discover that govt policy of increasing supply more effective than subsidizing demand at controlling prices.
Critics Admit Bitcoin Can't Stand on Its Own Merits
“The most common response to the critique you are about to read reduces to a single structural move: reframe the evaluation as a binary choice between Bitcoin and fiat, then win by comparison with a system the critic has already...
Follow the Flows, Not the Active/Passive Hype
1/2 If you're going to follow the active/passive debate, you gotta follow the flows. Fortunately, I have a reliable source. My oldest son, @senseiverde18, is putting out some great material at Nasdaq. His latest for February was excellent https://t.co/1FmfNEqUE1 and...
Ex‑ETF Sales, Not Bitcoin ETFs, Drive Price Bounce
As many others have pointed out, Bitcoin ETF flows have stabilized, but the relatively muted Bitcoin ETF flows since the October peak offer much less explanatory power for Bitcoin returns than the entire period. Suggests ex-ETF sales were a driver. Positive...
SPX's VIX Sensitivity Drops to Unsettling Low
Beta of SPX to 1pt chg in the VIX has fallen to uncomfortable levels. Opposite in many ways to Volmaggedon where VIX was at depressed levels, but SPX showing almost no response to implied vol changes. https://t.co/zaPe03rueo
Low Volatility Seeds Future Turbulence; Powell‑Trained Models Miss Warsh
Low vol begets high vol, to paraphrase Minsky. Systems trained on Powell, and they all have been trained on Powell, will struggle to interpret Warsh… especially as he himself will struggle with the same.
Jane Street’s IBIT Trade Is Hedged, Not Accumulating Bitcoin
It is so painful to watch this fumbling. Jane Street may be taking a position in IBIT, but that position is almost entirely offset by undisclosed options (on IBIT) and futures positions. They are certainly not “accumulating” a position in Bitcoin. That’s...
Tariffs Drove Inflation; Rate Now Irrelevant, CPI Lagging
The scary part is tariffs HAVE increased inflation. The lagging and imputed portions of CPI are the only remaining sources of inflation. We may get a hit from oil some day, but inflation RATE is no longer the problem. And...
