Russia Taps Civilian Airlines to Fill Military Transport Gaps
Interesting look at how Russia is mobilizing civilian aviation to compensate for readiness shortfalls in military transport.
Danger Zones Shift: 15km Risk Varies by Location
It varies quite a bit depending on location as well. In some areas 15km from the presumed FLOT is a lot more dangerous than others.
Russia's Energy Crisis: Production Decline, Revenue Strains, War Impacts
A new episode of Russia Contingency is out. I talk to @SergeyVakulenk0 about Russia’s energy sector. We cover declining production, how the Russian state receives revenue, impact of strikes and the war with Iran. @WarOnTheRocks https://t.co/U5OXvbXssG
Future Historians Will Struggle With Our Victory Narrative
Ryan raises good questions here, which I think many have had, about the theory of victory. Just reading through the recital of goals and objectives I do not envy historians years from now having to wade through this time period....
Ukraine's Refined Strike Tactics Boost Energy Target Success
Ukraine's campaign against Russian energy export infrastructure have been more effective. One theory is that's due to degraded Russian air defense, but folks should consider that Ukraine has gotten much better in how it organizes and executes these strikes.
Skala 425 Attack Exposes Deep Rift Over Assault Tactics
A good piece by KI about a set of long standing concerns and disagreements on how to conduct assault operations, which have spilled out into the open, prompted by the latest mechanized attack by Skala 425 outside Pokrovsk.
Scaling FPVs Demands Structure, Experience, Not Just Basics
I agree there is to some extent an easy adoption fallacy. Getting FPVs to a basic level of proficiency may not be hard, but it takes dedicated force structure, experience in employment, org capacity, C2 adaptations, to scale and get...
Both Drone Fetishism and “Obsolete” Myths Miss Reality
Both perspectives are problematic. Papperger was dismissive and ill informed. The fetishization of drones is also unhelpful. The 'big stuff obsolete' crowd is wrong in theory, plus ill informed on recent developments that are helping return mobility to the battlefield.
US Coast Guard Allows Russian Oil Tanker to Reach Cuba
Interesting development. "The United States Coast Guard is allowing a Russian tanker full of crude oil to reach Cuba, delivering a critical supply of energy to the island nation after months of an effective oil blockade by the Trump administration..." https://t.co/WTcPH6z6eD
Address Chronic Shortfall in Domestic Weapon Procurement
We should get back to the topic of chronically insufficient procurement of weapons that we can produce and could have been easily contracted.
Russia Repurposes S‑
The use of RM-48U is a growing issue, supplementing existing SRBMs. Russia is dedicating certain S-400 air defense units to this strike role. https://t.co/RPvaVKxyaE
Insights Shared on OWA Drone Discussion
Good discussion on OWA drones and happy to contribute some thoughts to this piece. https://t.co/9wzT67vLWy
April Mech Assaults Prove Costly; UA Excels at Defense
Usually there is a wave of mechanized assaults around April and then they're once again revealed to be costly and ineffective. UA defense is optimized for defeating mech assault, and much of the fight is about suppressing or displacing opposing...
Drone‑enabled Mechanized Assaults Resurging Across Ukraine Front
From Kupyansk to Zap we now have cases of drone-assault units having success. There are different approaches. But drone-enabled mechanized assault is working on making a comeback.
Ukraine’s Shifting Launch Sites Highlight OWA’s Adaptability
Ukraine uses a variety of launch sites and changes between them. It’s much easier to adapt OWA to launching from fields, rotating sites, or even using mobile platforms. Some things in wars are observations vs lessons. Context matters.