Neil Cybart (Above Avalon)
Apple analyst publishing multi‑part earnings reviews, iPhone segment analysis, buyback/FCF insights, and "reading between the lines" of Apple’s earnings Q&A.
Apple Can Absorb 5× DRAM/NAND Hike, Margins Unfazed
I think consensus is overestimating the degree to which DRAM and NAND pricing will impact Apple’s products gross margin. In yesterday’s Above Avalon update, found below, we went over a simple financial exercise that showed how Apple can absorb a 5x increase in DRAM and NAND pricing with only minor overall impact on iPhone gross margins.
Comprehensive Apple 2Q26 Earnings Review Released Today
I just published today’s Above Avalon Daily update. Subscribers, this should now be in your inboxes. A collection of earnings-related items that wrap up my Apple 2Q26 earnings review. As is the case with Above Avalon analysis, no financial stone...
Apple Abandons Net Cash‑Neutral Goal, Implications Explored
Following Apple’s earnings release, the most prevalent incoming question that I received dealt with Apple’s decision to sunset its net cash neutral goal. While we went over my initial thoughts regarding the topic in last Friday’s update, there was room...
IPhone Demand Hits Decade-Highs, Excluding Pandemic Spikes
My initial analysis regarding Apple’s 2Q26 earnings and 3Q26 guidance is found in the Above Avalon Daily update linked below. After spending some time going through my Apple earnings model (which is accessible via an Above Avalon Models subscription), the...
Apple Will Reinvest Tariff Rebate Into U.S. Manufacturing
Tim Cook: If Apple gets a tariff rebate, we are going to take the cash and add it to our U.S. manufacturing initiative.
Apple’s Future Products Driven by Core Ideals
Following last week's Apple CEO transition news, one incoming question that I received dealt with where Apple is headed from a product perspective. What ideals are guiding Apple’s decisions regarding where to compete? I tackled that multifaceted topic in yesterday’s...
New Media Boom May Be Illusion, Not Reality
It increasingly feels like some of the prevailing assumptions underpinning new media’s growth over the past decade has been a mirage. Take a closer look at the new newsletters, podcasts, videos, Substacks, and livestreams entering the market. You undoubtedly are seeing...
Cook's Legacy Unfinished, Ternus's Success Will Define It
There’s a lot of talk regarding Tim Cook’s legacy as Apple CEO. Such talk is premature. Time will be needed for proper context. Also, Ternus’s success as CEO will be part of Cook’s legacy.
Apple CEO Succession Takes Center Stage on Avalon Podcast
Check out this week’s AVALON podcast for Apple CEO succession talk (among other discussion topics).
Apple's Future Under Ternus Won’t Be Just Hardware
I just published today’s Above Avalon Daily email. It took longer than expected to write, but I think it fully explains my view on where Apple stands and what things may look like with John Ternus as CEO. Much of what...
Tim Bradshaw’s FT Scoop Predicts Early 2026 Apple CEO Transition
When the Financial Times reported that Apple CEO succession in early 2026 was on the table - much earlier than anyone else had said - my initial reaction was to believe the reporting. Tim Bradshaw doesn’t miss.
OpenAI's TBPN Acquisition: Risky Hail Mary with Flawed Logic
My Inside Orchard essay this week is about OpenAI buying TBPN. I discuss two reasons OpenAI is buying the media company and the holes in OpenAI’s logic. It’s a Hail Mary pass with low odds of succeeding as planned.
OpenAI's TBPN Acquisition Threatens Podcast Independence
OpenAI just bought TBPN 1) I doubt this is about the podcast itself as there is no reason for OpenAI to buy a tech podcast. In addition, the TBPN podcast will now face new headwinds as they officially lose their independence....
Apple’s Failure Fueled Its Greatest Renaissance
I talked about Apple at 50 in this week’s AVALON podcast episode. Later this year will mark 12 years of covering Apple’s every move via Above Avalon. That’s a quarter of Apple’s life. While we can’t ignore Apple’s early years...
AI's Uncertain Moment: Chatbots Cool, NVIDIA Falters, $599 MacBook Sh
NEW ESSAY: AI Is in a Weird Place Right Now https://insideorchard.com/essays/ai-is-in-a-weird-place-right-now We discuss nine AI developments that have been on my radar including chatbot platform craze cooling, NVIDIA not convincing Wall Street, and a $599 MacBook being the leading contender for device of...