Nick Gerli

Nick Gerli

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CEO, Reventure Consulting; charts and commentary on housing cycles, valuations, and macro linkages.

Seattle Inventory Spikes 88%, Buyers Finally Gain Leverage
SocialMay 10, 2026

Seattle Inventory Spikes 88%, Buyers Finally Gain Leverage

Seattle's housing market is going through a historic inventory shock. There are now 8,630 listings across the Seattle metro as of Apr 2026. In a normal April, there are only 4,600 listings. Meaning inventory today is 88% above normal. This is happening due to...

By Nick Gerli
Collin County Housing Correction Opens Buyer Bargain Window
SocialMay 10, 2026

Collin County Housing Correction Opens Buyer Bargain Window

Collin County, TX is in the midst of a stiff housing correction in 2026. Inventory has spiked 62% above the long-term average, to over 4,300 listings. This high supply is causing values to drop, down -6.1% over the last year already. Sellers...

By Nick Gerli
New U.S. Homes Still Larger than Past Decades
SocialMay 9, 2026

New U.S. Homes Still Larger than Past Decades

Are houses getting smaller or bigger? Today, builders are delivering new single-family houses around 2,150 SF. This is down 14% in size from the "McMansion peak" of 2015. However, it is still above 2009 downturn lows, and about 24% bigger than back in...

By Nick Gerli
New Home Prices Drop 16%, Boosting Buyer Power
SocialMay 9, 2026

New Home Prices Drop 16%, Boosting Buyer Power

Some encouraging signals are coming out of the new home building market. The median sale price for a new house fell to $387k in March 2026. This is now down 16% from the 2022 peak. Some people think it's all due to builders...

By Nick Gerli
Opendoor's $32K Cut Signals Nashville Home Value Drop
SocialMay 4, 2026

Opendoor's $32K Cut Signals Nashville Home Value Drop

Some crazy stuff is going on in Nashville's housing market. Opendoor, America's largest homebuyer, just purchased this house for $462K in March. But then immediately relisted and cut the price to $430k. a $32,000 loss on price in a matter of weeks. On...

By Nick Gerli
Nashville Inventory Spikes, Prompting Steep Price Cuts
SocialMay 4, 2026

Nashville Inventory Spikes, Prompting Steep Price Cuts

Nashville's housing market is rolling over hard. The music city just eclipsed 10,000 listings, the most inventory in a decade. And an astounding 67% above the long-term average for the month of April. Such high supply is now leading to a burgeoning...

By Nick Gerli
Reverse Migration Swings Housing Supply: TN Up, NY Down
SocialMay 3, 2026

Reverse Migration Swings Housing Supply: TN Up, NY Down

In Tennessee, housing supply is skyrocketing. In New York, it's contracting. So much so that both states now have 30,000 listings. (with TN having a 65% smaller population) This represents a vast change from pre-pandemic norms, when New York had nearly 3x...

By Nick Gerli
U.S. Homebuyers Spend 38% of Income on Mortgages
SocialMay 2, 2026

U.S. Homebuyers Spend 38% of Income on Mortgages

The U.S. Housing Market is contending with its worst affordability crisis in decades. Today, U.S. households need to spend nearly 38% of their gross income on mortgage costs to buy a house. This figure is nearly the same as the mid-2000s bubble,...

By Nick Gerli
Westchester Housing Supply Collapses 64% Amid NYC Exodus
SocialMay 1, 2026

Westchester Housing Supply Collapses 64% Amid NYC Exodus

A major housing crisis is occurring right outside NYC - and no one is paying attention. Housing supply in Westchester County has plummeted 64% from 2019 levels. And bidding was with double-digit price growth are still commonplace. With little sign...

By Nick Gerli
Buyer Demand Near Record Lows; Price Cuts Needed
SocialApr 30, 2026

Buyer Demand Near Record Lows; Price Cuts Needed

Homebuyer demand remained near record lows to close out April. With Reventure's buyer demand index downshifting to 9/100 this month. For comparison: a 50/100 is "normal", and the current readings are near the lowest on record. Suggesting that the spring 2026 season...

By Nick Gerli
Miami Records Historic Domestic Exodus, Real Estate Slumps
SocialApr 29, 2026

Miami Records Historic Domestic Exodus, Real Estate Slumps

Miami's domestic migration just plunged to the lowest level on record in 2025. With an astounding -113,000 net Americans fleeing the 3-county metro. Note that Miami usually loses Americans due to outbound migration, and makes up for it with international immigration. But...

By Nick Gerli
Midwest Migration Surge Threatens West Coast Decline
SocialApr 29, 2026

Midwest Migration Surge Threatens West Coast Decline

A new migration shift is happening in the U.S. The Midwest, after losing people for 30+ years, is now surging. With +16,000 migration in 2025. On the flip side, people are leaving the West Coast. California continues to lose people, and...

By Nick Gerli
Nashville Home Sales Plummet, Inventory Peaks—Buyers Win
SocialApr 27, 2026

Nashville Home Sales Plummet, Inventory Peaks—Buyers Win

A silent homebuyer exodus is sweeping through Nashville. Sale transactions have collapsed 28% from the pandemic peak. And just hit their lowest March level in 12 years. There's a giant vacuum in demand, with many of the California buyers who propped...

By Nick Gerli
Sun Belt Inventory Surges, Northeast Housing Shortage Spikes
SocialApr 26, 2026

Sun Belt Inventory Surges, Northeast Housing Shortage Spikes

The housing market has broken into two. Sun Belt markets like Denver, Austin, Seattle, and Orlando are experiencing exploding inventory (+30% or more from 2019 levels). Prices are now dropping in these markets. However, in New York, Chicago, Providence, and Hartford,...

By Nick Gerli