April Job Openings Surge, Vacancy Ratio Tops 2025 High
It's one month in a noisy series, but job openings jumped in April, pushing up the 3-month moving average for the first time since last fall. The ratio of vacancies for every worker counted as unemployed rose above 1 to the highest level since January 2025 https://t.co/K8o4srh6gb
Powell Warns Presidential Firings Could End Fed Independence
Accepting an award for political courage, former Fed Chair Jay Powell names no president and spoke in lofty generalities. But he gets specific about one point: that letting a president remove Fed officials over policy disagreements would end the central...
Fed Likely Ditches Forward Guidance Under New Leadership
Bessent: The food is better at the Fed because they don’t have a budget. “We are going to see a new sheriff in town.” He says Warsh is going to get rid of forward guidance. He laments too many Fed governors giving...
Fed's Real Rate Now Below Long-Run Neutral, Says Musalem
St. Louis Fed Alberto Musalem observes that with inflation rising, the Fed’s real policy rate is now “sitting below the FOMC’s notion of long-run neutral.” https://t.co/TzE0gMQxyo
Cook Sees Disinflation Returning, Warns of Rate Hikes if Delayed
Cook: “In my baseline forecast, disinflation should resume in upcoming months without having to raise rates….” “…I am prepared to raise rates, if the expected disinflation does not appear in a timely manner.”
Core PCE Set to Hit 3.3%
Based on the CPI and PPI, forecasters anticipate the core PCE rose 0.28% in April. This would lift the 12-month rate to 3.3%, the highest since November 2023 (when the Fed still had a tightening bias). The 6-month annualized rate...
Navarro Urges Fed Patience, Warns Against Rate Hikes
Navarro counsels against rate hikes (illustrating how the dovish position has changed): “Now we hear the rate hike drums beating louder from Wall Street trading desks to the regional Fed banks and into the bowels of the Eccles building. The right Fed...
Fed Chair Warsh Sworn In by Justice Thomas
Kevin Warsh is sworn in as Fed chair by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. As a Stanford undergrad, Warsh worked as an intern on Thomas's 1991 confirmation to the court. https://t.co/TXX94HfjZz
Waller Signals Hawkish Tone, Warns on Inflation Risks
This is a hawkish speech from Waller. While he doesn’t think hikes are needed in the near-term, he comes across as quite troubled by recent inflation developments. I’ll thread a few highlights: https://t.co/p8k7nMSJ1e
Fed Members Lean Toward Tightening as Inflation Stays Above 2%
Fed minutes: “A majority of participants highlighted…that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2%." "Many" indicated a preference for ditching the easing bias.
Cleveland Fed Median CPI Jumps, 12‑month Rise Hits 2.8
The Cleveland Fed's median CPI was +0.40% in April, or 4.9% annualized. The 12-month median CPI ticked up to 2.8%, the first such increase since last summer. (The median CPI looks at the price change of the item sitting in the...
April CPI Won’t Shift Fed, New Chair Faces Tough Odds
April CPI won't change minds at the Fed. But more of this will complicate the dovish case, which has already flipped away from arguing for cuts and towards arguing against toying with hikes. It's a tough inheritance for a new Fed...
Core Services Inflation Spikes, Undermining Tariff‑only Narrative
The optimistic story on inflation has been that the recent firming has been tariff-led (which would show up in goods) and therefore won't be sustained as tariffs aren't going to ratchet higher year after year. The April CPI, in isolation, isn't...
Core CPI Set to Rise as Shelter Inflation Rebounds
Forecasters expect a higher core CPI reading in April owing partly to how the BLS made an assumption during the government shutdown's data blackout that lowered shelter inflation. That quirk goes the other way now. https://t.co/HnH5OR4uWd
Democrats Coons, Fetterman Back Warsh Fed Nomination
Two Democrats, Coons and Fetterman, voted yes on the motion to proceed with Warsh's Fed nomination.
Half of Fed Forecasters Now Expect No Rate Cuts This Year
More sell-side firms and Fed watchers are removing/delaying cuts from their outlook, including a couple forecasters after the April NFP. Half now see no cuts this year (and risks are clearly tilted to this group continuing to grow given inertial...
April Workweek Rises; Private Payrolls up 4% YTD
From the April payroll report: INCOMES: The average workweek ticked up in April after falling in March. The index of aggregate weekly payrolls for private-sector workers (which combines hiring, wages, and hours) was +4% for the year. https://t.co/brQvF8k1Xw
April Jobs Data Frees Fed to Focus on Inflation
The April jobs report allows the Fed to sweat over inflation (as opposed to inflation *and* jobs) https://t.co/6iYFTTwKfI
April Adds 115K Jobs, Unemployment Holds at 4.3%
The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. March hiring was revised up by 7,000 and February was revised down by 23,000.
Iran War Spikes Supply‑chain Pressure; Tariffs Stay Flat
Tariffs did not register any meaningful move last year in the New York Fed's index that measures global supply chain pressures. The Iran war, on the other hand, moved the line up notably in April https://t.co/kDmPxpgitg https://t.co/92UmxGrKV4
U.S. Job Openings Stable at 7 Million, Vacancy Ratio Near 1
U.S. job openings have been stable, and the three-month moving average stood at 7 million in March There were 0.94 job vacancies for every worked counted as unemployed in March, in line with the recent trend. https://t.co/03wCHzdWaT
Treasury Cuts Inflation Table, Keeps only CPI, Food, Energy
Treasury's latest economic report to the TBAC (private-sector advisers on public debt issuance) slimmed down its inflation table, dropping core inflation measures along with a range of subcategories. What's remaining: headline CPI, food, and energy. Q1 (left) vs Q2 (right) https://t.co/XQ4paUIFqa
DOJ Seeks to Erase Ruling, Hints at Future Grand Jury
The DOJ filed today to vacate a federal judge’s ruling tossing out the Fed subpoenas, citing mootness now that the investigation has been suspended. Powell and Tillis flagged this last week. The filing is procedural, aimed at preventing the ruling...
Mideast Energy Crisis Pushes Fed Toward Dovish Stance
Being a Fed dove in 2025: Here’s why we should cut Being a Fed dove in 2026: Here’s why we don’t need to hike How the Mideast energy crisis is reshaping the Fed’s debate
Dallas Fed Warns Inflation May Stay Above Target Longer
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan explains her dissent, which objected to suggesting that the next rate move is more likely than not to be a cut: "I am increasingly concerned about how long it will take inflation to return all the...
Kashkari Urges Fed to Keep Policy Flexible Amid Iran War
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: "Why I dissented" He says the policy statement should signal the next rate move could be a cut or a hike given the broader range of outcomes from the Iran war. He lays out two modalities: a...
Private‑sector Wage Growth Eases to 3.2% in Q1
Private-sector pay growth decelerated ever so slightly in Q1 when looking at wages and salaries for private sector workers ex-incentive paid occupations. It was +3.2% in Q1 from a year earlier, vs 3.4% in Q4 and +3.6% in the same quarter...
67‑Year‑Old Lifts 365
What’s the heavier lift: 365 lbs on your 67th birthday or telling your colleagues you changed your mind on rate cuts? Chris Waller seems comfortable with both. (He posted this video on his LinkedIn account) https://t.co/RIAIyJCkUm
Hawkish Push Gains Party Backers, Warsh Not Isolated
The hawkish case is finding political backers from inside the president’s own party, meaning that declining to cut might not leave Warsh isolated within his own coalition. Sen. John Kennedy said inflation is “kind of like a tick.” “If you get a...
Fed Chair's Era May End Amid Messier Meetings
Four dissents. An outgoing chair who isn't leaving. A new chair who wants "messier meetings." Since Greenspan began releasing FOMC statements in '94, reading the Fed meant reading the chair Wednesday raised the possibility that era is ending https://t.co/80GDuqZwql
Four Fed Dissenters Signal Rare Break From Easing Bias
NEW: There were *four* dissents on the Fed’s rate pause. Three bank presidents wanted to ditch the easing bias, and a governor dissented for a rate cut. The last meeting with four dissents was in 1992. https://t.co/JM88jOXIAg
No Fed Dot Plot—FOMC Statement Takes Center Stage
There's no Fed dots today, which means that until Powell's last (and 64th—but who's counting) press conference at 2:30 pm, it's just the FOMC statement to do the heavy lifting. Here's what I'm watching: https://t.co/8sdY0wHDV8
Kevin Warsh Poised to Become 17th Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh is now on track to become the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve when Jay Powell's term concludes on May 15. https://t.co/mPaGC9If1n
Senate Banking Committee Schedules Warsh Fed Chair Vote
The Senate Banking Committee has set a committee vote for Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination on Wednesday https://t.co/l3pMHESk0G
Bessent Open to Fed Chair, Not Elected Office
Bessent says he has no ambition to run for office but “wouldn’t say ‘no’ to being Fed chair later.” “There’s no election involved. You can shape the economy, and it’s an institution.” https://t.co/3lx7XrYMiD
GOP Banking Chiefs Praise Pirro; White House Warns Case Persists
Both GOP leaders of the banking committees, which oversee the Fed, have issued statements welcoming Pirro's decision. But so far, we have heard nothing from Tillis. Meanwhile, the White House says the case "is not necessarily dropped."
Law Requires Powell to Remain Acting Fed Chair
“That’s the appropriate legal understanding.” NEC Director Kevin Hassett tells Bloomberg’s @SalehaMohsin he agrees with Fed Chair Jay Powell’s view that the law “calls for” him to stay on as the Fed’s acting leader if a successor isn’t confirmed by May...
Immigrant‑heavy Low‑skill Jobs Lag Wage Growth Post‑Trump
Industries in which immigrants with low educational attainment are overrepresented have seen slower wage growth than the broader private sector since Trump took office, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows. https://t.co/dSm4Lvudzj
Pirro Vows Continued Fed Probe, Appeals Grand Jury Ruling
Pirro says her probe of the Fed’s construction project is ongoing and Boasberg's ruling will be appealed: "The cost overruns on that building are well over $1 billion dollars. This investigation continues. I am in the legal lane. There are...
Warsh Calls Core PCE ‘Rough Swag,’ Favors Trimmed Mean
At his confirmation hearing, Warsh dismissed core PCE as "rough swag" and said he'd prefer to focus on better gauges of underlying inflation like median or trimmed mean. This got attention because Dallas Fed trimmed mean was 2.3% in February (y/y)—well...
Former FOMC Insider Says Warsh Lacked Independence at Hearing
This is quite a comment from someone who served on the FOMC for nearly four years with Kevin Warsh. He says Warsh failed to project independence at his hearing.
Warsh Pushes Fed Reform, but Independence Risks Political Pushback
What we learned at the Warsh hearing today • He's serious about his reform agenda, which extends from how the Fed does its economic analysis to how it communicates with the public • He cited inflation measures that are a bit more...
Fed's 2021‑22 Mistakes Fuel Ongoing Inflation Legacy
Warsh opens the hearing by noting that today's inflation is a residual of the Fed's past mistakes "The Fed missed its mark, and we are still dealing with the legacy of the policy errors in 2021 and 2022." "Once you let inflation...
Trump Backs Rate Hikes yet Demands World’s Lowest Rates
Kernen: Would you ever be OK with the Fed raising rates if inflation becomes a problem? Trump: “I think Kevin’s great…. I’ve been in favor of interest rate rises to fight inflation” but “we should have the lowest interest rate in...
Wall Street, FOMC Scrutinize Warsh Amid Trump Rate‑Cut Pressure
The toughest audiences at Warsh's confirmation hearing won't be in the room. Wall Street and the FOMC are watching how he'll manage Trump's pressure to cut interest rates. The president is watching for signs he'll deliver on expectations he set...
Ethics Lawyer’s Trust Overrides Senate Concerns over Warsh
The Bush WH ethics lawyer who cleared Warsh for the Fed in 2006, on his opaque disclosures: He trusts Warsh, but understands why senators are uneasy. "If it were somebody I didn't know and trust, with this administration, I would say,...
Warsh: Fed Independence Rests with Itself, Inflation Its Duty
Kevin Warsh is set to tell the Senate at his hearing Tuesday that "Fed independence is largely up to the Fed" and that inflation is the Fed's responsibility "without excuse or equivocation" https://t.co/tzi2zEeXj8
Warsh's AI‑Productivity Pitch Meets Fed Colleagues' Resistance
Kevin Warsh rode an AI-productivity argument to Trump's Fed chair nomination. He says the boom will hold down prices and let the Fed cut rates. The pitch has run into a public wall of opposition from his future colleagues before...
Tillis Stands Firm on Fed Blockade, No Bluff
Tillis’s colleagues don’t see him backing down on his Fed blockade and aren’t trying to stop him “If you’re asking me if I think that Tillis is bluffing, the short answer is no. Long answer is hell no,” said Sen. John...
Fed Governor Warns Energy Shock Delays Rate Cuts
'One Transitory Shock After Another' Fed governor Chris Waller lays out two scenarios: The strait reopens "leaving me cautious about rate cuts now and more inclined toward cuts to support the labor market later this year." Or it doesn't and the Fed...