Oleg Ciubotaru

Oleg Ciubotaru

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Tech commentator who engages with the scale of resource extraction (e.g., copper demand vs recycling limits) as it relates to electrification, data centers, and AI.

AI Token Burning Is a Short‑Lived Experiment
SocialApr 25, 2026

AI Token Burning Is a Short‑Lived Experiment

The AI tokenmaxxing phase we're in now is weird, and I don't think it lasts. Companies ultimately care about profits and the value creation that drives them, burning gazillions of tokens for experiments is fine, for a few months... Then...

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Most Parent Time Ends Before Adulthood, Now in Tail End
SocialApr 25, 2026

Most Parent Time Ends Before Adulthood, Now in Tail End

"It turns out that when I graduated from high school, I had already used up 93% of my in-person parent time. I’m now enjoying the last 5% of that time. We’re in the tail end." https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/12/the-tail-end.html

By Oleg Ciubotaru
GPT‑5.5’s Higher Price Demands Faster, Better Performance
SocialApr 23, 2026

GPT‑5.5’s Higher Price Demands Faster, Better Performance

with gpt-5.5 being 20% more expensive than Opus 4.7, they really need to deliver on speed and quality.

By Oleg Ciubotaru
GPT‑5.5 Pricing Doubles to $5/$30 per Million Tokens
SocialApr 23, 2026

GPT‑5.5 Pricing Doubles to $5/$30 per Million Tokens

I didn't had this on my binfo card... gpt-5.5 is a ~2x price increase from 5.4: "For API developers, gpt-5.5 will soon be available in the Responses and Chat Completions APIs at $5 per 1M input tokens and $30 per 1M...

By Oleg Ciubotaru
ChatGPT Images 2.0 Unlocks Powerful Commercial Opportunities
SocialApr 21, 2026

ChatGPT Images 2.0 Unlocks Powerful Commercial Opportunities

ChatGPT Images 2.0 - looks impressive. Loots of commercial applications can be built with these advanced features.

By Oleg Ciubotaru
LLMs Excel Where You Lack Expertise, Falter on Familiar Ground
SocialApr 20, 2026

LLMs Excel Where You Lack Expertise, Falter on Familiar Ground

There is a saying: "LLMs are right almost 100% on the topics I don’t know, but ~ 60% on topics I know deeply."

By Oleg Ciubotaru
AI-Driven Attacks Will Cripple Complex Systems Soon
SocialApr 19, 2026

AI-Driven Attacks Will Cripple Complex Systems Soon

Vercel today, someone else tomorrow... Complex systems will be hit hard by sophisticated attacks - augmented by AI systems.

By Oleg Ciubotaru
US Firms Achieve Ocean Drone Ship Rocket Landings
SocialApr 19, 2026

US Firms Achieve Ocean Drone Ship Rocket Landings

2 US companies can land massive rockets on drone ships in the middle of the ocean. Blue Origin's New Glenn booster second landing:

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Inspired by Books and Films, I’ll Tackle the Camino
SocialApr 18, 2026

Inspired by Books and Films, I’ll Tackle the Camino

The Camino de Santiago trail in Spain - has books and movies about it... I'll have to find a way to walk on it.

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Google Gemini Forces Fast Model, Ignoring Compute Limits
SocialApr 15, 2026

Google Gemini Forces Fast Model, Ignoring Compute Limits

Thanks Google for reminding me dozens of times a day that you are too compute constrained. Each time I open a new chat in gemini -> defaults to Fast model. I have to change it every single time. Even Anthropic who's arguably more...

By Oleg Ciubotaru
AI Coding Agents Inspire Me to Dive Into Low‑level Languages
SocialApr 14, 2026

AI Coding Agents Inspire Me to Dive Into Low‑level Languages

Fun fact - the more I use AI coding agents, the more I want to go lower level in the stack. I wasn't really thinking I'd go back to C, or learn Rust. But I'm doing it now. AI is a wonderful tool...

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Artemis 2: A Bright Gift Amid Growing Negativity
SocialApr 12, 2026

Artemis 2: A Bright Gift Amid Growing Negativity

what a gift to humanity drowning in so much negativity lately - Artemis 2 was... We should celebrate our astronauts, engineers, scientists, and all the awesome people at NASA who made it possible.

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Designing Legible AI Codebases & Embracing Friction
SocialApr 11, 2026

Designing Legible AI Codebases & Embracing Friction

AI Engineer conference in Europe is pretty good. A few slides from Armin Ronacher's talk: Designing agent legible codebases and embracing friction links below

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Court Denies Anthropic's Pause Request, Blacklist Remains
SocialApr 9, 2026

Court Denies Anthropic's Pause Request, Blacklist Remains

A bit of a setback for Anthropic "a federal appeals court said no to Anthropic's emergency request to pause the blacklist by DOW". This is not the final decision in the lawsuit between Anthropic and DOW, but for now they are...

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Meta Must Deliver on Llama 4, Not Embarrass
SocialApr 8, 2026

Meta Must Deliver on Llama 4, Not Embarrass

I hope this is not Llama 4 level of embarrassment when it will be released. Let's see when it comes out, Meta has the talent & compute - they just need to deliver. Will definitely try it.

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Fishing Rod Vs. High‑Tech Russian Drone Threat
SocialApr 7, 2026

Fishing Rod Vs. High‑Tech Russian Drone Threat

Highly sophisticated & technologically advanced drone warfare. Using a fishing rod to catch russian drones :)

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Gemma 31B Runs Locally: High Quality, Very Slow
SocialApr 6, 2026

Gemma 31B Runs Locally: High Quality, Very Slow

got Gemma 4 31B on my mac... at ~10k tokens input it does struggle quite a bit to give me a response, the fans are getting pretty loud. Finished answering in 6 min 52 sec. Quality wise, it's good. Super slow, but...

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Will OpenClaw Usage Rise After Anthropic Subsidy Cut?
SocialApr 5, 2026

Will OpenClaw Usage Rise After Anthropic Subsidy Cut?

I'm curious if OpenClaw's usage on OpenRouter will go up after Anthropic closed the subsidies.

By Oleg Ciubotaru
OpenAI's Explosive Growth: $122B Funding, 900M Users
SocialMar 31, 2026

OpenAI's Explosive Growth: $122B Funding, 900M Users

OpenAI shared some interesting stats: - closed a new round: $122 billion in committed capital at a post money valuation of $852 billion. - 900 million weekly active users, and over 50 million subscribers - 15 billion tokens per minute processed on their...

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Leaked Claude Code to Be Reverse‑engineered and Open‑sourced
SocialMar 31, 2026

Leaked Claude Code to Be Reverse‑engineered and Open‑sourced

Leaked Claude Code will be dissected, analyzed, and reverse-engineered. Every pattern and trick will end up in open-source projects. Chinese model makers will absorb whatever they can.

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Future Tech Imagined, but Not Niche Video Platforms
SocialMar 31, 2026

Future Tech Imagined, but Not Niche Video Platforms

Sci-fi writers ~50 years ago were talking about flying cars and space colonies. I don't think anyone predicted that something like YouTube will exist, where niche videos like this 3h study video with 24M views

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Npm Supply Chain Attacks Becoming Disturbingly Frequent
SocialMar 31, 2026

Npm Supply Chain Attacks Becoming Disturbingly Frequent

is it me or supply chain attacks on npm are getting regular occurrence these days?

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Meta Aims for Default AI, Not the Best
SocialMar 29, 2026

Meta Aims for Default AI, Not the Best

Meta doesn’t need to build the best AI model. It needs it to be the default one for its 3.7B users.

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Copy‑pasting PDFs Into Web Forms Remains Absurd in 2026
SocialMar 28, 2026

Copy‑pasting PDFs Into Web Forms Remains Absurd in 2026

Copy pasting from PDFs into web forms is the dumbest thing you are still required to do in 2026. Looking at you IRS.

By Oleg Ciubotaru
GPT‑5.4 Slower yet Corrects
SocialMar 27, 2026

GPT‑5.4 Slower yet Corrects

Aligns with my experience with gpt-5.4, it is waay slower but catches up a lot of silly mistakes from Opus 4.6

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Drones and IEDs Make Ground Invasion of Iran Fatal
SocialMar 26, 2026

Drones and IEDs Make Ground Invasion of Iran Fatal

Just read an older report on - IEDs accounting for roughly 70 percent of all American combat casualties in Iraq. I hope people got the memo, in 2026 the "IEDs" are flying after you - day and night. In Ukraine 80% of...

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Grok Finds YouTube Video Gemini 3.1 Pro Misses
SocialMar 25, 2026

Grok Finds YouTube Video Gemini 3.1 Pro Misses

Weird that gemini 3.1 pro couldn't find the original video, but Grok did in one shot. This is not even funny... Gemini should have better access to YouTube than Grok.

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Many Early Threads Users Abandon Platform for X
SocialMar 25, 2026

Many Early Threads Users Abandon Platform for X

Cleaning up Threads accounts I followed back in the day... Most of the people I initially followed no longer post here. For ex AOC has 2m followers here, didn't post anything in 3 years. But she's actively posting on X, where she has...

By Oleg Ciubotaru
From Awe to Frustration: Coding Models Stall AGI Progress
SocialMar 24, 2026

From Awe to Frustration: Coding Models Stall AGI Progress

I remember when Opus 4.5 dropped I had about 2 weeks of constant WOW moments, I was so impressed of how big of a jump it was compared to previous models. Fast forward to today... and you find a lot...

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Know When to Trust AI—And When to Hold Back
SocialMar 23, 2026

Know When to Trust AI—And When to Hold Back

Learning the hard way on when to use AI and when to avoid it. You need to learn on your own which tasks require keeping the LLM on a short leash and which ones you should just do yourself -...

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Iranian Missile Breaches Israeli Defense, Highlighting Intercept Challenges
SocialMar 21, 2026

Iranian Missile Breaches Israeli Defense, Highlighting Intercept Challenges

Intercepting ballistic missiles is really hard. Iranian ballistic missile making through the air defense in the Southern Israeli city of Dimona

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Cheap $800 Drone AK‑47 Threat Redefines Warfare
SocialMar 20, 2026

Cheap $800 Drone AK‑47 Threat Redefines Warfare

This is the equivalent of AK 47, but for drones. The world is not prepared for this yet, as we have seen it with the Gulf states. If you're using anti-aircraft missiles to shoot these things down, you're going to be in...

By Oleg Ciubotaru
AI-Native Startups Outpace Sluggish Incumbents
SocialMar 16, 2026

AI-Native Startups Outpace Sluggish Incumbents

The new AI-native companies are leaner, meaner, and move fast. The sabertooth tigers are coming for the giant sloths.

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Iran Could Block Hormuz Using Low‑Cost Drones, Like Ukraine
SocialMar 11, 2026

Iran Could Block Hormuz Using Low‑Cost Drones, Like Ukraine

I'm no Middle East expert, but looking at how Ukraine, without a Navy, destroyed the Russian Black Sea fleet using cheap drones, I would expect Iran, which is 3x larger than Ukraine, will find a way to block the Strait...

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Scaling Context Windows to 10M Tokens Is Far Harder
SocialMar 10, 2026

Scaling Context Windows to 10M Tokens Is Far Harder

We've had 1M token context windows for 2 years [with many caveats]. By now you'd expect 10M+ of coherent, high quality context window to be available everywhere. Turns out unlocking that is a much harder [expensive] problem than anyone wanted to...

By Oleg Ciubotaru
AI Code Tool Costs Explode From $50k to $6M
SocialMar 10, 2026

AI Code Tool Costs Explode From $50k to $6M

Dylan Patel, SemiAnalysis CEO: Late last year we were spending $50k on Claude Code. By Super Bowl weekend, our run rate hit ~$6M/year... Our data center team lead, not a developer, now spends $5k/day on Claude Code building his own tools.

By Oleg Ciubotaru