Figma's IPO: Record Pop, Then Record Plunge
Figma holds two stock price records: 1. Biggest "IPO pop" of major IPOs (or any SaaS company) since 1999 2. Largest subsequent loss from the IPO pop after 6 months (see thread) https://t.co/Z7h6AnLHkI
AI Claims Mask Thin Value Add in Products
Many companies proudly say that their product gets better as AI improves Likely to ease fears that AI isn’t disrupting them. Obviously your product should get better as AI improves. But how much value do you add on top of the base...
AI Raises Stakes, Making Traditional PE Valuations Unsustainable
AI is making the penalty for being mediocre massive. And that is why the profit-focused path (and PE’s traditional playbook) is broken. These company valuations will be crushed over time. Maybe <1.5x ARR…Fine if you are bootstrapped, but completely broken for any...
Accelerate or Die: Only One Viable Path
The illusion of two viable paths will destroy lots of valuations. There is only one path…accelerate or die. The profitability path will seem like a good alternative, but here is what will happen New post 👇 https://t.co/cg40nUY4gq
AI Firms Need
Jim Cramer asks Jensen about AI layoffs… "For companies with imagination, you will do more with more.” Jensen also said that engineers should burn lots of tokens. Translation: You need more shovels. I know a guy… https://t.co/Xmz1mApAc9
Finance Leaders Worry Lower‑level Teams Still Ignore AI
True, but… I’d be more concerned if the next layers down aren’t using it…VP finance, Controllers, and their teams I know many who haven’t touched any AI yet…
We Overhyped Valuations, AI May Follow Suit
It's easy to make fun of 2021 valuations. But how in the world did we ever think Asana should be at a 60x revenue multiple... Seems like we will look back similarly at many private AI companies 🤔 https://t.co/VK8CqatqTn
Limited Context Leads to Costly Layoff Mistakes; Retain Key Staff
Have been in this situation. You have to make a lot of decisions with only a few leaders that don’t have complete context. You do the best you can, but mistakes will be made. Especially with a large layoff like this. Hopefully...
High RPO Guarantees Revenue, Risks Complacency
RPO breakdown of public software companies. High RPO = guaranteed future revenue (your customers are prisoners) Low RPO = you have to win your customers’ love much more frequently All else being equal, high RPO is better. But it can make you complacent…...
Self‑Disruption Is Survival in the AI Era
Playing it safe is a death sentence in the age of AI But that’s what a lot of software companies are doing Wix and Intercom are two great examples of disrupting themselves in order to survive. -Wix bought disruption and provided the distribution....
Brand Becomes a Moat Only After Other Moats
Is brand a real moat? You can’t build a brand moat without having other moats first. So it can’t be an initial moat. But once you have a trusted brand then it becomes a moat itself. And might be the most powerful...
Scale Globally: From Contractors to Costly Entities
There are three stages of compliance when hiring internationally. My rough guidelines for each: 1. Hire as contractors (a few folks) 2. Hire through an EOR (5 - 25 folks) 3. Set up an entity (>25 folks) Warning: setting up an entity can...
Software Debt Maturity Wall Threatens PE Firms Amid Rate Hikes
A $40B software debt “maturity wall” is about to hit at the worst possible time. -Higher rates -AI destroying valuations -Growth slowing All my PE-backed company friends are nervous because they know what comes next…and it will impact everyone https://t.co/VgLWpfUArt
Debt Extensions and Aggressive Cuts Signal Upcoming Layoffs
VCs are telling their port cos with debt to start the extension process early And PE folks are planning aggressive cuts to boost EBITDA in preparation We will see lots of layoffs here… https://t.co/t5Rfcdpvvm
ARR Figures Often Inflated; Cash Conversion Remains a Leaky Bucket
You might be surprised how many companies lie about ARR (or stretch the truth). But also how many CFOs and CEOs can’t explain how their ARR number turns into cash. It’s often a very leaky bucket. https://t.co/lV11H5wOXj
Should SaaS Buy AI or AI Buy SaaS?
I am not sure if more SaaS companies should buy AI startups so they can catch up on tech Or… If more AI companies should buy cheap SaaS companies for the distribution and plug int their stuff
Revenue Swaps Undermine Trust, Lead to Shelfware
This has been happening for a long time. Often there is a potential legitimate reason to buy each other’s stuff, but…it more often than not ends up as shelfware. In diligence, I always compare new customer close dates to new vendor...
AI‑driven Layoffs Demand Generous Severance Packages
If there is a layoff then what will your severance package be? If you are at a large company then it might look something like the below, which is pretty generous. And if AI is used as the layoff excuse….they better be...
Beyond AI: Over‑hiring and Slowed Growth Trigger 2026 Layoffs
It’s not just “AI efficiency” that will cause massive layoffs in 2026. Many overhired and can’t “grow into it” now because revenue growth slowed a lot. -What are companies doing right now? -What are severance benchmarks? -How to best do a layoff https://t.co/Db7jHp7KFa
Block’s 40% Cuts Dwarfed by Bigger Tech Layoffs
To put Block's 40% layoff in perspective... Here are the largest single layoffs by a public tech company: https://t.co/RIuZwREhhC
Fraud Scams Evolve Beyond Classic CEO Email
My accounting team is receiving scary good fraud attempts… It is no longer the yahoo email from the CEO saying “Send $10M to this bank asap. We just acquired a company. Many thanks” Stay safe out there
Asana CEO Spends Billions Selling Meta for $1B Asana Stake
Asana CEO has purchased over $1B of Asana stock since they went public 🤯 Asana market cap today is only $1.7B. The purchases were funded by selling his Meta stock... He lost several billion dollars from selling Meta and buying Asana... >>https://t.co/cRAFDwGz2b https://t.co/ltv5Z71gZq
Domo's 0.8x ARR Price Masks Zero Growth, Broken Economics
Domo trades at 0.8x ARR and just announced they are formally looking to sell. While they have a "cheap" multiple, revenue growth is 0% and they are barely FCF breakeven. I.e. the unit economics are broken. But might make sense to the...
AI May Reverse Dilution From Slowing Revenue Growth
Your slowing revenue growth has created a stock-based comp (dilution) problem AI is destroying software multiples, but it may also be the only thing that can solve our dilution problem. https://t.co/8EiZueMtNK
Early-Stage Startups Don’t Need Costly Big‑4 Audits
Startups ($25M ARR? Get bids from multiple firms. You do NOT need a Big 4 audit. It does not me you are a legit company before the Big 4 did the audit. No one cares. 2nd tier firm is fine 3...
Expensify's $3M Audit Fee Highlights Costly Compliance
Expensify paid $3M in audit fees in 2024. Insane. They had 115 employees and $140M of revenue...They are not complicated. The auditors could have literally redone the books for that much. Hope AI drives audit costs down (but not holding my breath...
Falling Software Valuations Demand 409A Repricing Decisions
Software valuations are falling which means 409As that are getting updated now will fall too. Should you reprice underwater stock options? Here is everything to consider: https://t.co/VumYhlVzRr