Pivato Investing
Macro investor who regularly analyzes the U.S. yield curve and recession risk signals from government bond markets.
Higher‑than‑expected Inflation Dampens Fed Cut Hopes, Stay Cautious
Inflation (CPI) just came in at 3.8%, higher than expected. Last month’s CPI was 3.3%. Higher inflation reduces the odds of Fed rate cuts, which is bad for risk assets like stocks and crypto. Markets seem to be overlooking the negative impact of oil disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Not the kind of market environment to get overly bullish in. Stay cautious.
First $100K Is Hardest; Then Growth Accelerates
It took me 56 months to hit my first $100K. After that, each $100K came much faster: $200K — 19 months $300K — 6 months $400K — 4 months $500K — 8 months $600K — 9 months $700K — 2 months The first $100K is about saving. After that,...
Smart Picks Outpace S&P: Massive Gains in 2026
2026 performance: $SNDK +331.26% $INTC +152.95% $MU +71.90% $AMD +61.34% $GOOGL +22.38% $AMZN +18.51% While the S&P 500 is only up +5.42% The S&P 500 is good, but it's worth picking individual stocks if you know what you're doing.
AI Hype Fades, SaaS Growth Remains Robust
People thought ChatGPT would destroy Google $GOOGL. Since then, $GOOGL is up nearly 300%. Now people think Claude will destroy SaaS. Feels like we’re about to see the same story again. Yes, these AI tools are disruptive, but I believe the market is overreacting. ServiceNow...
Patience Beats Hype: Buy Low, Hold Long
It’s tempting to buy stocks that are pumping right now. But ask yourself first: Are you swing trading? Are you planning to sell soon for a quick gain? If not, chasing pumps usually ends badly. My biggest winners (5–20x) weren’t bought during hype. I bought...
Growth and P/E Misaligned, Market Def
Apple $AAPL +16% revenue growth 34 P/E Visa $V +17% revenue growth 30 P/E Johnson & Johnson $JNJ +6% revenue growth 26 P/E Coca-Cola $KO +2% revenue growth 24 P/E Exxon Mobil $XOM -1% revenue growth 23 P/E Meta $META +33% revenue growth 22 P/E A reminder that the market is not always rational.
AMD: The Overlooked AI Winner You Should've Bought More
In hindsight, AMD has been an obvious play over the past few months. The biggest tech companies clearly signalled in their earnings reports that AI spending was ramping up fast, and we knew they were buying directly from AMD. I even posted...
AMD Surges as Big‑tech Earnings Tumble
Big Tech earnings just dropped today. Still a lot to read through. But one thing already looks clear: AMD is going so much higher.
Crypto Repeats: Hype, Bear, Quiet, Bull—Learn the Cycle
The history of crypto: 2013 — hype, people buy the top and lose 2014 — bear market, people leave at the best prices 2015 — quiet, no attention 2016 — bull run begins Then it repeats: 2017 — hype, people buy the top 2018 — bear market,...
Bitcoin Poised for $83‑85k Surge, 70% Confidence
Bitcoin is $76,200 now. I expect it to hit $83,000 - $85,000 very soon. ~70% confidence. Do with that what you want.
Bitcoin's Expected Drop May Be Misread, Prediction Coming
Perfection. Bitcoin’s move from $66K played out exactly like this. Now the next move looks like a brutal drop. But here’s the good news: I think that’s wrong. I’ll post my updated Bitcoin price prediction later today. 🤝
Invest in ChatGPT and Claude Now Before IPOs
You can invest in ChatGPT and Claude today. OpenAI (ChatGPT) and Anthropic (Claude) are both preparing to IPO later this year, but you don't have to wait until then. Big Tech isn't waiting either. They're loading up on both. 3 ways to get...
Bitcoin Poised for Near‑term Rise, Long‑term Dip
Reviewed a lot of charts and data today. Bitcoin still looks like it has some upside in the next few weeks, targeting $78–85K. It also likely still has further downside over the next few months, targeting $50–60K. Hard to predict short-term moves and...
Endure the Grind, Invest Now, Brighter Days Ahead
Smiling on the outside but dying on the inside. That was me in 2023. - Living with my parents to save on rent - 2 hour commute to my job in downtown Toronto - 10-14 hour work days - Woke up miserable, went to bed...
Big Wins Require Accepting Losses
Down $150K+ in crypto since Q4 2025. Loaded up on PayPal $PYPL the past few years for it to go nowhere. Plenty of other losers too. But I also made $300K+ in crypto in 2024. And scooped up Palantir $PLTR under $10. Sold most...