Recent Posts
Social•Feb 21, 2026
Dollar Declines Despite Hot Inflation and SCOTUS Ruling
The Dollar yesterday fell back to its recent lows against EM, even though core PCE inflation came in hot and the SCOTUS decision should have lifted it. Regime change for USD is upon us. Things that ordinarily lift the Dollar no longer do so. This is big. https://t.co/uBFVE9G5tn https://t.co/GDDHrNQhmS
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Supreme Court Ruling Won’t Boost Dollar Amid Growing Policy Chaos
The rollout of reciprocal tariffs last April caused an alarming and sharp fall in the Dollar, so why isn't today's Supreme Court ruling causing the Dollar to rise? The April fall in the Dollar was about policy chaos in DC,...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Strong US Payrolls Can Depress Dollar, Boost Euro
On Aug. 3, 2012, Goldman put out a trade recommendation to go long Euro. The next day was US payrolls, which were stronger than expected. That caused Euro to jump and USD to fall. An example that strong US data...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Strong US Data Must Decouple to Trigger Dollar Decline
The US is outgrowing everyone else and that'll stay that way into this year's midterms. So, for the Dollar to fall, you need a correlation break whereby strong US data cause USD to fall. This is how the Dollar traded...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 19, 2026
German ECB Critics Exit Over Fiscal‑Support Shift
Only actions matter, not words. The actions: Germans who stand for separation of monetary and fiscal policies (Jens Weidmann, Axel Weber, Jürgen Starck) left the ECB due to its drift into fiscal support for high-debt countries. The ECB is losing...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Dollar Climbs vs G10, Stays Weak vs EM
The Dollar is up sharply in recent days. But this rise is only happening versus the G10 (blue). The Dollar remains near its recent lows versus EM (black) and that's what you want to watch for future Dollar direction. We're...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 19, 2026
China's Auto Export Surge Hits EU Markets, Tariffs Powerless
China's auto exports went vertical in Dec. '25. All those cars go to EM (red), not the G10 (blue). That complicates EU efforts to protect its car makers. China's export surge is decimating EU export markets. There's not much EU...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Lagarde’s Early Exit Fuels Concerns over ECB Politicization
The ECB should be apolitical. But now President Lagarde says she’s leaving early. According to people “familiar with her thinking,” this is so Macron can pick her successor before the French Presidential election in April 2027. Not very apolitical at...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 18, 2026
ECB Yield Caps Mask Fiscal Fragility, Exit Bond Markets
ECB yield caps give the illusion of fiscal sustainability, but it's just an illusion. A real shock like Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows high-debt countries have no money to help Ukraine. For the sake of Europe, the ECB needs to...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Aging Populations Strain Southern Europe; ECB Must Relinquish Yield Caps
Once you reach 60, your conditional life expectancy is another 20+ years. Problem in Southern Europe is that relatively few people work, so population aging becomes very expensive for the state. That only gets fixed if the ECB steps back...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 17, 2026
ECB Favors High-Debt Nations, Sidelining Low-Debt Germany
Low-debt countries like Germany are hopelessly outnumbered at the ECB. That's why ECB policy is inexorably drifting to help high-debt countries at the expense of low debt ones. So no surprise BuBa President Nagel supports Eurobonds. Going with the flow......
By Robin Brooks