Recent Posts
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Euro's Neglect Highlights Geopolitical Weakness
We live in a beggar-thy-neighbor world. Everyone is trying to get their currencies down except for the Euro zone, another symptom of geopolitical weakness. While everyone else is managing their currencies down, the Euro is suffering from benign neglect... https://t.co/QpUo91Xcq2 https://t.co/7qByDtUMFN
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 15, 2026
Core Services Inflation Stays Tame, No Overheating Signs
There's lots of commentary that US inflation will overheat, but there's no sign of that. My proxy for core services inflation was very well behaved in all of 2025 (purple) and the Jan. '26 data point (pink) was much more...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Yen Poised for New 2025 Lows Amid
The Yen will keep falling in trade weighted terms in 2025 and make new lows. Two reasons: (i) Japan remains in denial on the scale of its debt and what's needed to fix this; (ii) the Yen will be falling...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Warsh Fed Expected to Slash Rates 100bps, Dollar Falls
My forecast is for the Warsh Fed to cut policy rates by 100 bps in the 4 meetings after he takes over (June, July, September, October) ahead of midterms. Markets are moving in this direction, but still price only 63...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Dollar Decouples: US Growth Rises as USD Falls
Great piece by @katie_martin_fx in the @FT on the correlation break happening for the Dollar. As Trump leans more and more on the Fed, positive data surprises like payrolls no longer lift USD. The US will boom this year. But...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Anti‑Trump Bias Skews Dollar and Inflation Forecasts
A lot of economic commentary is inflected by anti-Trump sentiment. That's why so many forecast the Dollar would go into a death spiral last year (it didn't) & why there's so much focus on inflation overheating now (it isn't). Yesterday's...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Yield Drop Signals Benign CPI, Boosts Gold Prices
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) fell sharply at 8:30 am today, a sign markets think today's CPI was benign and so the Fed cuts more. Bloomberg's XAU/$ gold price (white) rose around the same time, which is consistent with that...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 13, 2026
January 2026 Defies Post‑COVID Seasonal Inflation Surge
Ever since COVID, the start of the year has seen hot inflation prints, because residual seasonality pushed up inflation in the first quarter. That isn't the case in Jan. '26 and I think that holds a warning for those forecasting...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Trump Backs Off as Treasury Market Wobbles, Risk Premium Spikes
One constant in the Trump administration is that - when the Treasury market wobbles - it backs down. That happened on China in Apr. '25 and again on Greenland recently. 10y10y forward yield remains near its highs, even as 10y...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 13, 2026
US Loses Cheap‑borrower Advantage, Now Pays Debt Premium
The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium, the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 12, 2026
Dollar Regime Flip: Strong Data Now Weaken Currency
Something big is going on with the Dollar. In the past decade, strong data have pushed the Dollar up, but that isn't what happened yesterday. We're going back to the regime that prevailed before, whereby strong data push the Dollar...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 11, 2026
Strong Payrolls Fail to Boost Dollar, Correlation Shifts
Tepid response of the Dollar to a big upside surprise in payrolls. The whisper number for consensus was weak, so this was a solid beat, yet USD is barely able to rise. We're on our way to the correlation switch...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 10, 2026
Gold Surges Past $5,000 Amid Debt Monetization Fears
Gold is back above $5,000. The rise in gold is one manifestation of the debasement trade, which is about markets seeking safe havens from debt monetization. Big thanks to @DavidWestin from @BloombergTV for all the right questions and a great...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 10, 2026
Dollar vs EM Hits New Low, Signaling Further Weakness
The Dollar versus EM today is down to a new low, which is below its level 2 weeks ago at the height of Greenland headlines. It's the Dollar versus EM you want to watch for future direction. The signal it's...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 9, 2026
Gold Surges Past $5,000 Amid Reckless Fiscal Policy
Gold is back above $5,000. The rally in precious metals is reckless and crazy, but so is global fiscal policy. At some point over the past 20 years, policy makers who believe in keeping public debt stable stopped existing. Makes...
By Robin Brooks