Gold Drops 12% Since War, Defying Safe‑Haven Expectation
I'm a fan of the debasement trade and think precious metals will keep going higher over the medium term. But the fact that gold keeps falling when it should act as a safe haven also isn't nothing. Gold is now down 12% since war began in contrast to 2022... https://t.co/39F4OQ2zto https://t.co/XCzBaVbFEW
Brazilian Real Set to Rally Amid Higher Oil Prices
We've now reached the point where - four years ago after the invasion of Ukraine - the Brazilian Real began to rally and outperform everyone else. As we settle into a higher-for-longer equilibrium on oil, the same will now start...
Oil Surge Boosts Trump TACO Risk, Yet Markets Hold
Brent is at $115. As oil prices rise, the risk of a Trump TACO also rises. That in turn depends on dysfunction in global markets. At the moment, even with Brent up 70% from a month ago, markets are looking...
Brent Surge Won’t Reach $150‑$200 Amid Capacity Limits
Brent is up 70% in the past month. This prices Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic at half its capacity indefinitely. With the Saudis diverting lots of oil to the Red Sea and Iran continuing to export, we're already almost at...
Powell’s Hawkish Tone Risks Market Crash Amid Gulf Tensions
Today is very dangerous for Powell. If he sounds hawkish, markets might tumble given what's going on in the Persian Gulf. Next thing you know, Trump could be attacking the Fed like in Dec '18. Back then, the Fed capitulated...
Gold's 8% Drop Threatens Debasement Trade Momentum
Gold is now down 8% from before the war (blue). That may be due to the crazy run-up in precious metals and people locking in gains now that uncertainty is so high. But - the longer this sell-off lasts -...
10‑Year Yield Falls, Yet 10y10y Hits Record Risk Premium
The 10-year Treasury yield (blue) has fallen, pulled down by expectations of Fed easing and a lower 2-year yield (black). But that's a deceptive picture. 10y10y forward yield is near record highs (red). Markets price big risk premia in long-term...
China Shifts Food Imports From US to Emerging Markets
China retaliated against tariffs by importing much less food from the US in 2025. Canada, Ukraine and the EU also got hit. Instead, China ramped up its food imports from many across emerging markets. Vietnam, Indonesia and Argentina are among...
Big Oil Uses Doom Forecasts as Lobbying Tool
Big oil has its prophets of doom. When it's unhappy, it trots them out to prophesy doom. One such forecast in 2022 was oil would hit $380 because of the G7 price cap. This is lobbying on behalf of big...
Rising Tanker Traffic Could Shrink Brent's War‑driven Risk Premium
Great piece by @MelissaLawford in @Telegraph on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and what's going on in global markets. Brent is up 42% from before the war, a big risk premium. As oil tanker traffic picks up, this...
Brent up 42%, Now Mirrors Post‑Ukraine Invasion Levels
The Brent oil price is up 42% from before the war. This shock has spilled over into all kinds of other things, but what spot and options now markets price (blue) is basically on par with what we saw after...
Yen Slides Below Mid‑2024 Low; Intervention Won’t Halt Decline
The Yen has fallen below its previous low from mid-2024. This even though we're within two months of the NY Fed "rate check," which temporarily lifted it. As long as Japan believes in FX intervention, it's in denial on debt...
Brent Drops Again, Risk Premium Already Overpriced
Today marks the second Monday in a row where - after a weekend with lots of alarmist talk about how high prices will go - Brent has fallen. That tells you a big risk premium is priced and it's not...
Dollar's Rise Is Modest; Will Fall Post‑war
The Dollar has risen against the G10 (lhs) and against EM (rhs), but - once you factor in that this shock is at least 3 times as big as Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine - it's trading quite soft. We're...
Brent's 42% War Surge Faces Three Major Downside Triggers
Brent is up 42% from before the war began. That's a bigger risk premium than after the Ukraine invasion. Catalysts that can make Brent fall: (i) Trump ends the war; (ii) the US blockades Iranian ports (Iran's economy implodes); (iii)...
Embargo Iranian Oil, as Missed Russian Embargo Cost War
The big mistake the West made in 2022 was to not embargo Russian oil. That would have spiked oil prices further, but Russia's economy would have imploded and it likely wouldn't still be waging war in Ukraine. The lesson for...
Shortening Conflict Drives Oil Prices Down, Prolonging Rises
Every time markets think this conflict lasts longer, oil prices rise. Anything that shortens it makes prices fall. A Trump TACO does that or a blockade of Iran's ports, which'll cause Iran's economy to implode, forcing the Mullahs to reopen...
Oil Prices Swing Wildly on Political Hype, Not Trends
Last Sunday night, after being hugely complacent, the market was panicking and Brent briefly went to $120. But then Trump said war would be over soon and it fell back to $80. Oil isn't a one way trip here. There's...
Greek Shipowners Sabotage EU Sanctions for Putin Profits
Greece' shipping oligarchs fatally undermined the maritime services ban that should've been in the EU's 20th sanctions package. They're loyal only to money. If that means helping Putin, they fall over themselves doing it. No one should celebrate them... https://t.co/LOEwsvkjYG https://t.co/xUJgZVccK2
India’s Gulf Oil Imports Vanish, Boosting Iranian, Russian Demand
India used to import 50% of its oil from Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE (blue). All this oil had to transit the Strait of Hormuz and - recently - this is down to zero. It's this massive hole that's...
Greek Oligarchs Sold Half of Putin’s Shadow Fleet
Quick reminder that Greece's shipping oligarchs and their buddies in Malta and Cyprus sold Putin half his shadow fleet. They're loyal only to money and - in this case - are putting desperate people's lives at risk for their own...
Analysts' Oil Forecasts Serve Producers, Not Truth
One of the things I learned after Russia invaded Ukraine is that many commodity analysts are in bed with oil producers and ship owners. They forecast terrible oil price spikes and financial Armageddon to keep the West from being tough....
Market Fear Matches 2022 Levels Despite Complacency
How big is the market fear factor? The 4 charts on the left show what's going on in spot markets. The 4 on the right show options markets. Compared to Russia's invasion of Ukraine 4 years ago, we're now at...
Western Tankers Barred, Iranian Vessels Still Flow Freely
It's absurd that Western tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is shut down, while Iran's tankers continue to run through the Strait unhindered. Iran is a gas station masquerading as an Islamic Republic. Kharg is about shutting down the...
War Spikes Hedging While Markets Stay Oddly Complacent
As war escalates, markets look complacent. The S&P 500 is barely down and USD is up only a bit. But hedging activity in options markets is picking up a lot. That's most pronounced for oil (top left), but it's also...
Block Iran's Oil Ports to Cripple Regime, Open Hormuz
Iran is a one-trick pony. It exports oil. Those exports pay for everything else, including its military. Shut down its oil exports and Iran implodes. Iran's ports need to be blockaded immediately. That's the fastest way to open up the...
US Eases Russian Oil Bans as Iran Fuels Price Surge
Great @business reporting by @DanielPFlatley on US moves to ease restrictions on buying Russian oil. This is all backwards. Russia and Iran are making money while the Strait of Hormuz is shut and global oil prices spike. Iran's oil exports...
Iran's War-Era Oil Exports Surge, Prices Likely Drop
According to this excellent @WSJ story, Iran is today exporting more oil than before war broke out. That’s insane. First order of business for the US Navy is to stop any and all ship traffic out of Iran. That won’t...
Iran's Oil Surges Amid War; Call to Blockade Ports
Iran is a gas station posing as an Islamic Republic. Iran's oil exports are reportedly up since war broke out. That's nuts. First order of business must be to blockade Iran's ports. If that hurts China, all the better. Have...
Oil Prices Now Reflect True Disruption Risk
What happens with oil prices is all about whether risk premia are accurately priced. Initially, markets were massively complacent. Then there was all-out panic. Now, at between $90-100 per barrel, we're accurately pricing risk of a serious disruption... https://t.co/evJVri93wZ https://t.co/EZteEvaeo1
Iran Leverages Hormuz Attacks to Force US Concessions
The Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed to ship traffic because of Iran's attacks. Every Iranian attack is a negotiation. Iran knows it has leverage and is trying to end this war on favorable terms. Only way out is for...
Iran's Strait of Hormuz Leverage Traps Trump in War
The thing with this war is that there's no easy off-ramp for Trump. Simply declaring "mission accomplished" won't cut it if Iran keeps attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has leverage Venezuela and others didn't have and it's...
Rising Oil Prices Boost Putin as Sanctions Ease
High oil prices are great for Putin. At $85 per barrel, Urals oil price is now the highest since 2022. High prices also mean the EU's maritime services ban in its 20th sanctions package is dead and pressure in the...
Hormuz Shutdown Spikes Brent Upside Risk Despite Parity
The Strait of Hormuz remains almost shut, even as the risk premium priced into Brent currently (blue) is on par with that after Ukraine (black). The Strait is 3 times more important for global oil supply than Russia, so risk...
Gold Surged 60% Post-Powell, Fell with War
At the end of February, gold was up 60% from Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole on Aug 22, which is what sparked the "debasement trade." After a massive gain like that, it's no surprise that gold fell once war...
Oil Prices Drop, Likely Stabilize at $90‑$100
I wrote this piece: "What can make the oil price fall?" on Sunday night because debate around oil had gotten far too one-sided. We've now fallen significantly and - while hostilities continue - I think we'll bounce around in a...
Supreme Court Strikes IEPPA Tariffs, Highlighting Endless Instability
The Supreme Court ruled IEPPA tariffs illegal on Feb 20. That's less than 3 weeks ago, but feels like eons. That's Trump 2.0. Nothing's ever stable. You have to wonder if we'll even remember war with Iran 3 weeks from...
Goldilocks Market Boosts EM Commodity Exporters Amid Brent Dip
We're in a goldilocks environment for EM commodity exporters like Brazil and South Africa. Brent has fallen significantly, which is good for risk appetite. But it's still 20% above where it was before hostilities. That's good for EM commodity exporters......
Skip Oil Frenzy; EM Differentiation Lifts Brazil, South Africa
Trump yesterday said war will be over soon. Oil tumbled. As I signaled over the weekend, better to steer clear of the frenzy around oil and focus on EM differentiation. That theme's only been traded for a few days and...
Oil Prices Held by Hormuz Tanker Standstill Risk Premium
The oil price isn't one of those things that spirals infinitely up. At current levels near $100, a big risk premium prices the temporary standstill of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. You can bet Trump is working like crazy...
Strait of Hormuz Shutdown Starts Impacting Brent Prices
My chat with @SoumayaKeynes about oil on the @FT podcast. When we did this on Thursday, Brent was $83 and there was lots of humming and hawing if they can go higher. We discussed the shutdown of the Strait of...
Brazilian Real Surges, Echoing Post‑Ukraine Shock
In the last two trading days, the Brazilian Real has outperformed every other EM currency. This parallels price action after Russia invaded Ukraine. The same terms of trade shock that took $/BRL to 4.50 then is happening again now. Prime...
Markets Split Winners and Losers After Oil Spike
Today is the second day in a row (after Friday) that markets are trading winners and losers from the spike in oil prices. That's a big shift from the blanket risk-off that clobbered all EM currencies this time last week....
Hormuz Reopening Could Trigger Sharp Dollar Decline
The Dollar (blue) and rate differentials (black) are massively diverging. When the Strait of Hormuz reopens - even if only a little bit - we'll see a very large drop in the Dollar. We're still very much in a regime...
Closed Hormuz Strait Shifts Oil Risk to Reopening
The Strait of Hormuz is closed. It's not going to get more closed than it already is. All the risk is now on the other side, i.e. when and to what extent it opens. You can bet Trump is very...
Don't Chase Brent Spike; Hormuz Closure Unlikely to Worsen
Brent is $106 and markets are in full panic mode. They were slow to price the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but at this point the Strait isn't going to get any more closed. If anything, it'll...
Iranian Regime Collapse Could Drive Oil Prices Down
The Strait of Hormuz is shut. So what's a catalyst for oil prices to fall and not rise as everyone's now saying? The most obvious thing would be the collapse of Iran's regime, the odds of which are rising every...
Hormuz Closure Boosts Russian Crude to Record Highs
We already know the winner in the war with Iran and that's Russia. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has swung Russian crude from pariah to prized commodity. Urals oil price is the highest since right after the Ukraine...
Commodity Exporters Rebound as Brent Spikes, EM Currencies Rally
Friday marked a turning point. Brent rose 9% (CO1), but - instead of a broad sell-off across EM - South Africa (ZAR), Brazil (BRL) and Chile (CLP) rallied. Markets are transitioning to rewarding commodity exporters like in 2022 after the...
Oil Hits $90, Yet Dollar Weakens—New Trend
Something really unusual happened yesterday. While oil was pushing above $90 per barrel, the Dollar fell. That's very significant because we'd normally expect to see the oil spike drive the Dollar higher. We've transitioned back into a weak Dollar world... https://t.co/2nXDj5db75...
