Cautiously Buying Discounted Equities After Cash De‑risking
After de-risking heavily across the board since q4 (went to cash), I’m now nibbling at names I like and are down 30-50% Not jumping out of my seat. Don’t think we’ve bottomed Not buying tokens. Only equities
On‑chain Data Enables Real‑time Price Discovery for Public Firms
Going to be pretty interesting to see real time price discovery on public businesses like @Figure that have verifiable activity onchain. Forget about 10-Qs and 10-Ks
Western Union Poised to Profit From Stablecoins
I started looking at Western Union because I thought stablecoins would kill it. Then I realized WU is better positioned than almost anyone to leverage them. Brand, distribution, 200+ countries, $923M in EBITDA. The key risk was management. They had...
Crypto Tokens Overvalued; Crypto‑enabled Equities Set to Outperform
The disconnect between crypto adoption and token prices is at an ATH. Despite the correction, most tokens are still overvalued and won’t recover to ATHs. Hyperliquid is the exception. The alpha is in crypto-enabled equities. Founder-led companies like Figure, Nubank, and Robinhood...
Make Problems Fun: The Key to Lasting Fulfillment
When all is said and done, just make sure you had fun. Life is too short to do shit you’re not having fun doing. With all the ups and downs. Shit ain’t easy. But what if you manage to make it fun?...
Tokenize Quality Credit, Not TradFi’s Worst Mistakes
private credit. "liquid funds." continuation funds same dog shit, new wrapper. dog shit squared for once, let's tokenize quality, not re-engineer tradfi's worst mistakes on-chain and be the buyer of last resort
Crypto Is AI’s Native Money, Not Human-Friendly
Stop trying to make crypto human-friendly. It’s a native protocol for AI. While we sleep, robots will be using programmable money (stablecoins) to settle global transactions on financial rails that never close
Tokenized Commodities Enable 24/7 Market Trading
Days like today make you wonder why finance isn’t open on weekends I’m sitting next to a macro guy discussing Iran strikes. While he’s speculating what markets will do on Monday I pull up Hyperliquid’s oil perp +5% @ $86 Brain melted. Yeah...
Crypto Cuts HELOC Origination Cost From $11K to $730
Why does it cost $11,000 to originate a HELOC? Most industry experts would point to regulatory and compliance hurdles. After all, it's one of the few departments in FIs that keeps growing. @mcagney and @Figure proved otherwise: 45 days → 5 days to...
Privacy Is a Right, Not a Sign of Guilt
Most people assume that wanting privacy means you’re hiding something, when in reality it’s about preserving what is yours - an innate, inalienable right to live in peace. As we transition to public, open networks, layering in privacy is essential. That’s...
Stakers' Inertia Fuels MEV‑Focused Validators at Scale
How big of an issue is this? What can be done to fix it? And how do other networks overcome this issue as they scale? Stakers are lazy by default and I don’t think they’ll actively be switching to more long...
DeFi Apps Set to Outperform Base Layers Next Year
Next year will be frustrating for many that assume increased adoption will translate to higher prices across the board Why? - it was priced in - broken value accrual and tokenomics Expect more value capture and outperformance of apps esp DeFi vs base layers....
Ripple's Treasury Tactics Outshine Its Product Strategy
Ripple is running the AOL playbook using their treasury better than any other project to grow into their valuation Decentralized everything except product strategy No I don’t hold XRP. I can’t make sense of their valuation today - much like every...
Simple Diagram Explains How Stablecoins Work
Read this to understand stablecoins or just look at this diagram Very good explainer https://t.co/PyL9uK3Svu
Adoption Uncovers Hidden Overvaluation in Markets
Adoption exposes overvaluation
Adoption Reveals Overvaluation: The Adoption‑Price Paradox
Recorded this yesterday and wrote about it in more depth last night. Adoption comes and exposes overvaluation: adoption-price paradox https://t.co/KKAM8c9YWM
Adoption Grows While Crypto Prices Remain Stagnant
The Most Uncomfortable Phase of Crypto Has Begun When adoption rises but prices don’t https://t.co/NR4HTsU7As https://t.co/bKVgODsDvL
Crypto Hype Cycles Expose Predictable Patterns over Time
HYPE phase: crypto gives you unfair pattern recognition. After a few cycles, hype becomes obvious everywhere
Blockspace Supply Outpaces Demand; Users Drive Future
the L1 debate is over blockspace supply exceeds demand what matters now: users and recurring demand for blockspace
High APYs Mean Higher Risk: Know Your Yield Source
if you don’t know where the yield is coming from, you are the yield was true when DeFi was throwing around 1000%+ APYs, and it’s true now above-market returns = more risk. there's no such thing as a free lunch
Study Bitcoin Miners Before Buying GPU Farms
Everyone buying GPU farms should study Bitcoin miners vs Bitcoin returns
Crypto's Golden Age Ends, Opening Path to Maturity
The end of crypto’s “golden age” and why it’s a good thing https://t.co/s5V7dQjDLh
Detach Emotion, Embrace Flexibility in Trading Positions
Sat down with @jdorman81 to give additional thoughts on where I could be wrong on my L1 thesis, and what would make me change my mind on it. On this point, I've changed my mind many many times - and have...
DeFi's Evolution Validates 2021 Stablecoin Predictions, Accelerates Ahead
That time of the year I’m reflecting on the year and thinking about predictions for 2026 Before I do that, I like to revisit my prior predictions. Here’s an old episode (2021) I recorded with @aeyakovenko @ValidatedPod talking about stablecoins and...
Why Great Tech Still Fails to Drive On‑Chain Adoption
If the tech is that great, why don't we have more active users onchain? I went deep with @Austin_Federa on @ValidatedPod to discuss what's really holding back adoption... Give it a listen: https://t.co/duN1njLVFD
Crypto's Future Depends on Mass On‑Chain Adoption
crypto is better when there are a billion users on-chain Shame if we build all these incredible apps and no one shows up I used to think building the tech was enough that everyone would clearly see the benefits to sending and storing...
Crypto’s Hype Outpaces Real User Growth and Monetization
Most of you wouldn’t make it past the first-round interview at a major investment bank, let alone PE or a hedge fund. You punted some crypto in a bull market, made a bag, and now think you’re a genius. You were...
Crypto Needs Billions of Users to Hit $10T
A sober reminder of where we stand as an industry: - Crypto has ~40M monthly active users (MAUs) today - Facebook IPO’d with 845M MAUs at a ~$100B market cap - OpenAI has ~800M MAUs and was last valued at $500B We want a...
Inversion Rebuilds Legacy Firms on Ready Blockchain Infrastructure
“A new company called Inversion is emerging within this shift, acquiring traditional businesses and rebuilding their infrastructure on blockchain rails to create more transparent, programmable, and globally interoperable systems. Five years ago, the technology was not fully developed, regulatory frameworks...
Maximalism Hinders L1 Adaptability and True Valuation
I’m not “hating” on ETH (or other L1s). I just don’t like the valuation. Simple What I am calling out is the maximalism. Wild to be this closed-minded when we’re still so early No chain is perfect. The only thing that matters...
Ethereum Trades at 146× Amazon’s Revenue Multiple
Amazon is a network and arguably one of the most successful networks ever built. Which is why comparisons are uncomfortable: when you line Ethereum up next to real, scaled networks like Amazon or Facebook, the valuation gap becomes impossible to...
Can Ethereum Hit a $1 Trillion Market Cap?
Will ETH reach a $1T market cap this cycle?
ETH Buys Future Tax Claims, Not Underlying Assets
This is the most absurd analogy I’ve heard. When you buy ETH you’re not buying the buildings or businesses in that city which capture most of the value. You’re instead buying a claim on future tax revenue. And btw (checks...
App Layer Set to Capture Majority of Crypto Fees
To every DeFi, DePIN and crypto application founder, hang in there. The market clearly favors L1s but most fees are captured at the application layer - and increasingly so L1s capture 90% of market share and only 12% of fees (down...
Companies Capture More Crypto Value Than Layer‑1s
More value will be captured by companies using crypto than crypto layer 1s User aggregation theory prevails
Data Beats Narrative: L1s Are Overvalued
You can only throw so many narrative jabs. The data hits harder. L1s are overvalued 🥊 https://t.co/iVsejrbhLB
Most L1/L2 Overvalued; Few DeFi/DePIN Undervalued
I can’t think of a single L1 or L2 fairly priced Definitely some DeFi and DePIN projects Wrote about it here: https://t.co/7sLvK4vfco And here: https://t.co/8zhnsYr96z Will be publishing a dashboard with this fundamental analysis soon expanding to more protocols
Seeking On‑Chain User Retention Analysis
Has anyone done an analysis of user retention onchain?
Live Debate: Are L1 Tokens Overvalued?
We’re live-sparring for the sake of the market and your bags Wednesday, 1:30PM PT / 4:30PM ET @hosseeb and I will debate whether L1s are overvalued moderated by @notthreadguy Tune in and fire up the Polymarket: https://t.co/Cs9DXXKpHM
Bitcoin Mirrors Gold; Other Tokens Are Infrastructure Platforms
Dan @DTAPCAP, you’re a great macro thinker, but tech platforms and gold are not the same asset class Bitcoin absolutely has monetary network effects. I’m not out here comparing BTC to social apps. BTC is a monetary commodity, a social construct...
Monetizable Fees, Not Theory, Define Crypto Moats
Crypto industry is struggling to define what a "moat" is for open-source systems. It’s really hard It reminds me of when I was investing in open source back in the day. Most VCs didn’t believe you could monetize it until IBM...
Crypto Becomes Last‑Resort Lender for High‑Risk Real Assets
Crypto consistently ends up as the lender of last resort for RWAs. Why? Demand: Prime borrowers stay in TradFi. It’s cheaper, deeper, and frictionless. Supply: Crypto investors yawn at sub-10% yields So the only borrowers left are the bottom of the pile who...
Patience Beats Impulse in Today’s Momentum‑Driven Crypto Casino
Markets today are increasingly short-term and momentum-driven. Everything moves fast, everyone’s online, and you don’t need a banker anymore when you can try to be Soros from your phone. Investors (institutions and retail) care more about growth than value Crypto is...
Amazon Was Profitable Early; Crypto Analogies Must Use Reality
Amazon wasn’t a 22-year science experiment — it was profitable in 1998 and profitable in 22 of the last 28 years. If we’re going to use Amazon as the analogy for crypto, we should at least use the real company, not...
Crypto's Real Divide: Insiders Chase Charts, Outsiders Seek Tech
The biggest disconnect in crypto today isn’t price vs fundamentals. It’s insiders vs outsiders. Outsiders want to use the tech. Insiders only stare at the chart Full convo w/ @ProfGPod: https://t.co/dDOcf7Lixk
Data Shows Crypto Valuation Defies Network Effect Theory
Interviewed @RaoulGMI, who says crypto should be valued on network effects. Fair point - so I tested it. The numbers tell a very different story. 🔗 https://t.co/XHKAeMxtl5
Crypto Users Overvalued 5‑50× versus Meta
Crypto's users are valued 5×–50× higher than Meta’s with none of the monetization, retention, or network effects that would justify it. New post: 🔗 https://t.co/XHKAeMwVvx 📉🧮 https://t.co/15ZpuZqZdc
Distribution Matters More than Product for Seasoned Founders
First time founders focus on product Second time founders focus on distribution If an exchange is your distribution then don’t be surprised when your “users” walk away when they claim and dump the airdrop
Hype Promises Gains, Reality Leaves Everyone Losing
Bull: "We’re gonna be x% of Ethereum - send it 🚀" Bear: "We relatively outperformed our benchmark" Reality: Everyone lost money and the moon-math was never math
Crypto Valuations Ignore Lack of Recurring Revenue Streams
You don’t value casino flow like recurring software revenue. Haven’t heard a single case why crypto projects should be worth >30x P/S when the best tech companies are valued less than that and they have recurring revenue, unlike the casino