EPA Finalizes 2026‑27 RVO Rule; Market Analysis Begins
1. The EPA released the final 2026-2027 RVO rulemaking for the RFS a couple of weeks ago. It is time to go back to work on what it all means for the markets. Our first installment was published yesterday: https://t.co/sG40nWRgIz
Iran War Ripple Effects Threaten Corn Belt Yields
Nice article here by my Purdue mates on the impact of the Iran War on Corn Belt crop agriculture https://t.co/eapip2SLMa
Q1 Corn Use Surprises Market, Implied Estimates Rise
1. This chart is drawn from my Monday farmdoc webinar that I did with @JosephJanzen after the USDA reports. It shows first quarter (implied) total corn use estimated based on quarterly grain stocks and the market surprise in...
USDA Planting & Grain Stock Data Signal Market Shifts
While the world (rightfully) focuses on Iran and the price of oil, the USDA released the March Prospective Plantings and the latest Quarterly Grain Stocks reports on Monday. I joined Joseph Janzen for a farmdoc webinar shortly after the...
Market Underestimates Q2 Corn Usage for Seven Straight Years
Even more interesting. This was the 7th consecutive year that the market underestimated second quarter implied usage for corn. Hmmmmm.
Iran War Spurs Debate Over 95M Corn Acres
Now let the debates begin whether we will actually plant over 95 million acres of corn with the change in input prices due to the Iran War
EPA to Halve RIN Value for Imported Biofuels in 2028
Here is the big news from today's RVO announcement: "EPA is announcing that starting in 2028, foreign fuels and feedstocks will receive half the RFS compliance value compared to American-made products, providing American biofuel producers with time to prepare for the...
BBD RIN Gallons Appear to Match Leaked OMB Figures
Will have to do some digging to convert the BBD RIN gallons to physical gallons, but seems very close to the leaked OMB numbers from a couple weeks ago.
Ethanol Market Outlook: EV Shift, E15
Yesterday, I had the opportunity to present a webinar titled "Understanding the Ethanol Market" for the Center for Agricultural Profitability at the University of Nebraska. During the session, I shared my insights on several key topics, including: - EV transition and...
Ethanol Profit Forecasts 2025 Disrupted by CKF Technology
1. My latest FDD is out today and it looks at ethanol production profits for 2025. This is usually a pretty straightforward exercise using a model I have long used. Not so in 2025 due to something...
Final EPA RVO Rule Arrives March, Redefines B
1. Reasonably clear that the all-important final EPA rulemaking on 2026-27 RVOs will be released by the end of March and that it will be fundamentally different from the June 2025 proposed rulemaking. Todd Hubbs and I tackle the...
U.S. Ethanol Efficiency Metric Surges Unexpectedly in 2025
1. Something unusual happened to a key indicator of operational efficiency in the U.S. ethanol industry in 2025. See my latest FDD for all the details: https://t.co/ehKyQvEQGp
Dar
This is consistent with all the chatter about the RVOs lately. Darling Ingredients CEO last week gave a range for BBD RVO of 5.25 - 5.6 billion physical gallons. Appears that half-RIN is dead and the compromise...