Biomass RVOs Drive D4 RIN Peaks, Iran Dampens Gains
1. D4 RIN prices have been setting all-time highs on an almost daily basis recently. Yesterday (5/27/2026), 2026 vintage D4s hit a price of $2.26 per gallon. The main reason that D4 RIN prices are so high is the sheer magnitude of 2026 and 2027 biomass-based diesel RVOs finalized by the EPA at the end of March. What may be less well understood is that D4 prices would have been even higher if not for the Iran conflict.
Monthly D4 RIN Generation Pace Needed for 2026‑27 RFS
1. Looking for something to do today before the May WASDE lands? Check out our latest FDD article on the monthly pace of D4 RIN generation that is required to meet the 2026 and 2027 RFS RVOs. ...
New Open‑Access Blueprint Demystifies U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard
1. If anyone thinks that understanding the U.S. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) is confusing, you are not alone. That is why, after 15 years of work with some extraordinary collaborators, I'm thrilled to share that "The Biofuels Blueprint: Understanding...
2026‑27 RVOs Drive Critical D4 RIN Generation Requirements
1. TH and I are out with a new FDD on the implications of the 2026 and 2027 RVOs for required D4 RIN generation. I know that is a mouthful. But the question is a critical one...
EPA Finalizes 2026‑27 RVO Rule; Market Analysis Begins
1. The EPA released the final 2026-2027 RVO rulemaking for the RFS a couple of weeks ago. It is time to go back to work on what it all means for the markets. Our first installment was published...
Iran War Ripple Effects Threaten Corn Belt Yields
Nice article here by my Purdue mates on the impact of the Iran War on Corn Belt crop agriculture https://t.co/eapip2SLMa
Q1 Corn Use Surprises Market, Implied Estimates Rise
1. This chart is drawn from my Monday farmdoc webinar that I did with @JosephJanzen after the USDA reports. It shows first quarter (implied) total corn use estimated based on quarterly grain stocks and the market surprise in...
USDA Planting & Grain Stock Data Signal Market Shifts
While the world (rightfully) focuses on Iran and the price of oil, the USDA released the March Prospective Plantings and the latest Quarterly Grain Stocks reports on Monday. I joined Joseph Janzen for a farmdoc webinar shortly after the...
Market Underestimates Q2 Corn Usage for Seven Straight Years
Even more interesting. This was the 7th consecutive year that the market underestimated second quarter implied usage for corn. Hmmmmm.
Iran War Spurs Debate Over 95M Corn Acres
Now let the debates begin whether we will actually plant over 95 million acres of corn with the change in input prices due to the Iran War
EPA to Halve RIN Value for Imported Biofuels in 2028
Here is the big news from today's RVO announcement: "EPA is announcing that starting in 2028, foreign fuels and feedstocks will receive half the RFS compliance value compared to American-made products, providing American biofuel producers with time to prepare for the...
BBD RIN Gallons Appear to Match Leaked OMB Figures
Will have to do some digging to convert the BBD RIN gallons to physical gallons, but seems very close to the leaked OMB numbers from a couple weeks ago.
Ethanol Market Outlook: EV Shift, E15
Yesterday, I had the opportunity to present a webinar titled "Understanding the Ethanol Market" for the Center for Agricultural Profitability at the University of Nebraska. During the session, I shared my insights on several key topics, including: - EV transition and...
Ethanol Profit Forecasts 2025 Disrupted by CKF Technology
1. My latest FDD is out today and it looks at ethanol production profits for 2025. This is usually a pretty straightforward exercise using a model I have long used. Not so in 2025 due to something...
Final EPA RVO Rule Arrives March, Redefines B
1. Reasonably clear that the all-important final EPA rulemaking on 2026-27 RVOs will be released by the end of March and that it will be fundamentally different from the June 2025 proposed rulemaking. Todd Hubbs and I tackle the...