Scott Mendelson
Box office/industry analyst (Puck, The Outside Scoop); data‑driven analysis of grosses, release strategies, and theatrical economics.
Fuqua's Michael: Neverland Has Fallen Might Arrive Soon
So I guess this means we might indeed get Antoine Fuqua’s MICHAEL: NEVERLAND HAS FALLEN in a couple of years?
Massive Box Office Shows Fans Prefer Familiar over Critical Praise
With $12.6 million domestic (and around $31 million worldwide) heading into the weekend, even the most brutal pans declare that 'Michael' will give fans what they want while omitting what they don’t. As such, even the sharpest critical takedowns can...
Shawn Robbins Debuts, Talks Mummy Films & Summer 2026
Listen Now | Box Office Theory owner Shawn Robbins makes his long-awaited debut, stopping by on this long(er) episode to discuss ‘Mummy’ movies, CinemaCon and what’s to come for summer 2026.
MJ Biopic Serves Legal Agenda, Not Storytelling
Lionsgate’s buzzy biopic is, amid legal peril (as opposed to commercial pressures), mostly just an (entertaining) IMAX-friendly musical montage, a prologue to a theoretical sequel that’s (mostly) intended to publicly relitigate Michael Jackson’s later years. (Review of #Michael, via @scott_alan_mendelson) https://scottmendelson.substack.com/p/review-michael-jackson-movie-shuts-up-and-sings
Mario Galaxy and Project Hail Mary Dominate Box Office
The top two movies this weekend at the domestic box office will, once again, be ‘The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’ and ‘Project Hail Mary’.
Robotcookie Returns: Hot Takes on Mario Movie & More
Listen Now | The one and/or only @robotcookie returns to discuss ‘The Super Mario Galaxy Movie,' ‘The Drama,’ ‘You, Me & Tuscany’ and ‘Faces of Death'.
Three Hot Takes: Hunger Games Prequel, Scream 8, Prada Sequel
Three quickies on a rock-solid’ Hunger Games’ prequel trailer, a curious choice to pen 'Scream 8' and whether 'Devil Wears Prada 2' will be a 1980s-style "just do the first movie again" sequel
Modest $8M Opening Keeps $18M Film Viable
The Will Packer-produced 'You, Me & Tuscany' opened with $8 million, an underwhelming figure but not a disaster for an $18 million flick that ran into unexpected genre competition.
Packer Profits From Remake Formula, Tokenizing Black Leads
Rrom ‘Obsessed’ in 2009 until ‘Little’ in 2019, Packer found fortune and glory producing remakes, rehashes and genre approximations but with Black leads as added value. https://open.substack.com/pub/scottmendelson/p/you-me-and-tuscany-will-packer-producer-rip-off-dont-remake/
A24 Scores Third‑Best Opening with Youth‑Centric Romance
The Zendaya and Robert Pattinson-led original nabbed A24’s third-best opening weekend, signaling that the "indie studio for cool kids” is now also the place for buzzy, of-the-moment, youth-skewing romantic comedies and dramas... (Weekend box office punditry for THE DRAMA) https://open.substack.com/pub/scottmendelson/p/zendaya-movie-star-box-office-a24-the-drama-dune-odyssey-robert-pattinson/
Zend
Online discourse aside, moviegoers are RSVPing "Yes" to Zendaya and Robert Pattinson's comedy as Amazon's sci-fi epic continues pulling "aspirational for anyone not named Nolan or Coogler" grosses. (Friday box office punditry for THE DRAMA) https://open.substack.com/pub/scottmendelson/p/box-office-the-drama-nabs-awesome/
Visually Stunning but Characterless Animated Spectacle Full of References
Illumination's most visually spectacular animated feature yet is a parade of in-game references and large-scale action scenes, but again, it seems content to exist sans much character of its own.
Universal Extends Theatrical Windows, Studios Refuse to Back Off
Word that Universal will be expanding its theatrical exclusivity windows starting today (just before what should be a very big year at the box office) is hopefully a signal that major studios with a greater vested interest in multiplex revenues...
Pixar/Disney Cold Streak Ends as WB Hot Streak Fades
Listen Now | @charliejaneanders joins the usual gang of idiots (@scott_alan_mendelson, Lisa Laman and Jeremy Fuster) to discuss the apparent end of a near-decade-long Pixar/Disney cold streak alongside the decisive end of a nearly year-long WB hot streak.
Pixar Still Delivers Films on Par with Classics
Not every Pixar flick has risen to the level of ‘Finding Nemo’ or ‘Up,’ but that doesn’t mean the studio hasn’t semi-regularly produced new toons on par with its 2000s-era classics. @scott_alan_mendelson’s early review of Pixar’s ‘Hoppers’)
Sequels Dominate Box Office; Originals Become Long‑term Bets
As long as sequels like 'Zootopia 2' (which just passed 'Minecraft' to become 2025's top domestic grosser) are nabbing sky-high box office, the likes of 'Hoppers' and 'Encanto' can be viewed as long-term investments.
Disney Pitches Mandalorian as IMAX-Friendly, All-Ages Pulp Adventure
Disney is (correctly) selling Lucasfilm’s #TheMandalorianAndGrogu as an IMAX-friendly, mythology-lite all-ages pulp adventure, even while this summer’s streaming-to-cinema follow-up still must help re-establish #StarWars as a must-see-in-theaters franchise.
Mummy Teaser Leans on Cryptic Question, Not Visuals
Save for one spoiler-y (and unconvincing) image, the second tease for the latest 'Mummy' hopes a tantalizing question will entice audiences for an otherwise cryptic concoction.
Sony's GOAT Pulls $7M, Defying Non‑Disney Expectations
Sony’s GOAT scored a solid (especially for a non-Disney original toon) $7 million on Friday, as Amazon’s Crime 101 continued the curse of the Chris Hemsworth movie, and Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die opened pretty well by Briarcliff standards....
Overseas Audiences Expected to Offset Soft NA Opening
A softer-than-hoped opening day in North America will hopefully be of less consequence for ‘Wuthering Heights’ as overseas audiences, who consistently embrace big-deal erotic thrillers and dramas, pick up the slack in the coming weeks. Plus, a quick history on...
Indie Studios Hit Box‑Office Peaks as Hollywood Pauses
With Tinseltown mostly taking a holiday, the likes of Angel Studios, Vertical, and Bleecker Street soared to comparative commercial highs. (The new release Super Bowl weekend box office report)