Sergey CYW
Analyst covering Big Data companies and AI infrastructure (e.g., Snowflake, Confluent, MongoDB) with valuation and growth analysis.
Nebius AI Cloud Surges 483% with $1.2B Run Rate
Top 7 AI beneficiaries 👇 $NBIS (Nebius) | +483% NTM Nebius is building a pure-play AI cloud, optimized for GPU-heavy workloads. AI cloud run rate already at $1.2B annualized, with rapid regional expansion including new European capacity. Focus is not generic cloud — it’s high-utilization clusters, managed training, inference optimization. As AI workloads scale, Nebius benefits from both usage growth and higher-margin platform layers. Investing
MercadoLibre’s Integrated Logistics‑Fintech Flywheel Fuels Growth
4 Stocks Dominating E-commerce + Fintech Outside the U.S. 👇 $MELI MercadoLibre is compounding via a tightly integrated ecosystem. Reinvested 5–6 pts of margin into logistics + credit while handling 500M additional deliveries YoY. Brazil unit shipping costs dropped 11% in local...
Growth Wins When SBC Dilution Stays Low
SaaS dilution check: growth is strong, but SBC is the hidden tax👇 This chart maps SBC/Revenue vs NTM growth • Red → SBC exceeds FCF margin (value leakage) • Yellow → moderate dilution • Green → disciplined compensation Market is starting to price efficiency, not...
Rule of 40: Market Rewards Balanced Growth
Rule of 40 is where SaaS valuation meets reality Growth alone isn’t enough 👇 Chart combines NTM growth + GAAP EBITDA margin • >40 = high-quality balance (green) • 30–40 = acceptable (yellow) • <30 = weak efficiency (red) Market is clearly rewarding balance, not just...
Profitability Drives SaaS Premium Multiples Over Growth
SaaS valuations aren’t random — they cluster around growth + profitability Forward EV/Gross Profit vs NTM growth shows: • Higher growth → higher multiples (expected) • But operating margin is the real filter • Profitable names (green) consistently trade at premium $NET — 48x EV/GP...
AI Winners Show Massive Revenue Growth, Some Still Overvalued
Top 10 AI beneficiaries by est. NTM revenue growth 👇 $MU (Micron) +175% $SNDK (Sandisk) +171% $SKH (SK hynix) +148% $AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics) +103% $LITE (Lumentum) +88% $CRDO (Credo Tech) +77% $AVGO (Broadcom) +75% $NVDA (Nvidia) +69% $ALAB (Astera Labs) +57% $SIMO (Silicon Motion) +43% Some of these are clearly stretched. But...
Tech Valuations Near Par with Overall S&P
S&P 500 Information Technology forward P/E has declined from a peak of 32x in 2025 to 20.9x, now nearly in line with the overall S&P 500 at 19.9x forward P/E. data from Yardeni Research. Investing
CrowdStrike Becomes AI Era’s Core Security Layer
AI-driven cyberattacks are scaling rapidly — and $CRWD is positioning itself as a core security layer for the AI era AI is not only increasing attack volume, but also redefining how attacks are executed. Security is shifting from reactive to autonomous. $CRWD...
Datadog Launches AI‑Powered Observability Layer with MCP Server
Datadog is turning observability into an AI operating layer $DDOG made MCP Server generally available, pushing live logs, metrics, and traces directly into AI coding agents and developer environments. Datadog is moving closer where AI systems do not just assist engineers,...
Micron Leads AI Memory Boom with HBM4
The Real AI Winners: Memory Bottlenecks, and Hidden Infrastructure Plays. NTM growth shows where demand is flowing fastest 👇 $MU +175% NTM Micron sits at the core of AI memory. DRAM revenue reached ~$18.8B in one quarter, with HBM now the key driver....
AI Cyberattacks Surge, Cloudflare’s AI Defense Boosts $NET
AI-driven cyberattacks are scaling rapidly — and $NET is a direct beneficiary Cloudflare’s AI-powered defense, driven by Cloudforce One and its global network, now blocks ~230 billion threats daily. Attack sophistication is rising fast. AI is being used for exploit development, network mapping,...
IREN Leverages Ultra‑Cheap Power for AI & Mining Boom
5 high-risk, high-expectation stocks the market is watching closely 👇 $IREN IREN operates energy-advantaged data centers designed for both Bitcoin mining and AI workloads. Power cost at $0.035/kWh and fleet efficiency of 15 J/TH create a structural cost edge. Over 10,900...
Big Tech's YTD Decline Outpaces S&P, Margins Squeeze
Big Tech is selling off faster than the market. S&P 500 -6.9% YTD Big Tech (MAGS) -15.9% YTD $MSFT -26.2% YTD Capex hit $37.5B in a single quarter. Gross margins dropped to 68% (3-year low). Free cash flow is under pressure. AI is scaling,...
SaaS Multiples Dip as Growth Steadies at 14%
SaaS valuations just hit multi-year lows — while growth is stabilizing. Over the past 12 months, the setup has quietly flipped 👇 • Median EV/Sales fell to 3.44x (at ATL) • NTM revenue growth rebounded to +14% YoY Valuations compressed. Growth held. Growth expectations stopped...
AI‑driven SaaS Valuations: NET Overpriced, ZETA Underval
SaaS valuations based on the Forward EV/Sales multiple relative to their projected NTM revenue growth. • $NET sits far above the curve — 29% growth but trading at 26x Forward EV/Sales. Market pricing in AI + platform dominance. • $APP combines high...
Defense Spending Shifts From Platforms to Systems, Software, Autonomy
Defense spending is broadening beyond platforms into systems, software, and autonomy. Here’s how key players are positioned across the defense ecosystem 👇 $LMT Lockheed Martin anchors U.S. precision strike and missile defense. PAC-3 interceptors, JASSM and LRASM production ramp alongside Next Generation...
Palantir's AI Platform Drives Hypergrowth and Profitability
6 SaaS Stocks Benefiting from AI 👇 $PLTR (50.9x Forward P/S) AIP turns enterprise data into autonomous workflows. Agents execute decisions across supply chains, defense, and manufacturing. Bootcamps convert pilots into production in days. U.S. commercial hit $507M with AIP driving adoption....
Shopify’s Moat Deepens as Valuation Hits Historic Low
5 quality stocks with durable moats and high upside 👇 Some of the strongest platforms are now trading near historical valuation lows. $SHOP Shopify — 10.3x forward P/S Shopify powers $378B in GMV. Not just storefronts anymore. Payments, fulfillment, back-office tools all embedded...
Five Undervalued Moat Stocks to Watch
5 Quality Stocks with strong competitive advantages trading below median valuation 👇 $SOFI Full-stack bank + infrastructure. Galileo + Technisys cut costs, speed launches. Members expand across products, lowering CAC structurally. $ZETA 240M+ identity profiles power targeting. Athena automates campaigns across channels....
Founder-Led Stocks with Durable Moats Are Undervalued
Undervalued founder-led stocks with strong moats 👇 $CRM — Deep enterprise integration + high switching costs $TEAM — Core dev + collaboration stack $MDB — Costly to migrate once built $ZETA — Data + marketing cloud lock-in $RBRK — Critical backup + security layer Which ones...
Rising Energy Prices Supercharge Cash Flow and Returns
$8T+ Oil & Gas market. Goldman sees $115 crude. When prices rise, cash flow explodes across the energy stack. Here’s who wins 👇 Oil demand >104M bpd. Gas >4.2T m³. Supply stays tight while LNG demand grows. Goldman’s near-term price targets show...
Neo-Clouds Target Trillion-Dollar AI Market Amid Rising Competition
Neo-Cloud is scaling into a massive AI infrastructure market. GPUaaS is projected to grow from $24B (2025) → $236B+ by 2031 (~46% CAGR). Broader AI cloud TAM moves into trillions: • $2T cloud revenue by 2030 (Goldman) • $5.2T AI infra investment (McKinsey) But risks...
MercadoLibre’s Ecosystem Creates Undervalued Founder‑led Moat
6 undervalued founder-led companies with real moats 👇 $MELI — MercadoLibre (31.07 Forward PE) MercadoLibre operates a closed-loop ecosystem: commerce → payments → credit → logistics. Over 60M fintech MAUs interact across multiple layers of the platform. Mercado Envíos delivers a majority of orders...
SaaS Valuations Plunge, yet Growth Stays Robust
SaaS valuations have reset — but growth remains intact. Significant multiple compression - Median EV/Sales declined from 15–17x to 4–5x. Median subscription SaaS snapshot 👇 • EV/Sales: 4.7x • NTM Growth: 16.5% • 51 public companies • for SaaS companies (including device / fixed-capacity subscriptions and...
Growth Alone Isn't Enough: Prioritize Low Dilution
SBC/Revenue vs NTM growth 👇 High growth ≠ shareholder-friendly $TEAM $FIG → strong growth, but SBC eats a large portion of value The best companies balance both $PLTR $APP $SHOP $ZETA → high growth with controlled dilution Low SBC = real operating leverage $MSFT $FICO $FTNT...
Efficiency Is the New Competitive Edge in SaaS
SaaS efficiency is separating winners from the rest. The SaaS Magic Number shows how well companies convert sales spend into revenue. >0.75 = elite efficiency. In the AI era, efficiency compounds. Better products → lower CAC → stronger expansion → higher margins. Here are top...
AI Drives Cybersecurity Consolidation Around Data‑Rich Platforms
AI is forcing a shift in cybersecurity - here’s who benefits 👇 AI accelerates attacks and expands the surface area. At the same time, it’s forcing consolidation around platforms with data, scale, and automation. Investing
MELI's Explosive Growth Shows Market Undervaluation
$MELI - Why the market is underestimating this stock. 👇 Revenue growth accelerated to +40% YoY (+36.8% FX-neutral). Gross merchandise volume grew +36.8% YoY (+36.5% FX-neutral), while successful items sold increased +43% YoY — suggesting higher engagement, increased purchase frequency, and...
Forward P/E Reveals Hidden Profitability in SaaS Valuations
SaaS valuations through a different lens: Forward P/E vs expected revenue growth Looking at SaaS only through EV/Sales often hides an important dimension — profitability. This chart compares Forward P/E with analysts’ NTM revenue growth estimates, helping highlight how much investors pay...
AI-Fueled SaaS Leaders Outpace Industry Growth
SaaS growth - a few companies are accelerating. This chart ranks public SaaS companies by NTM revenue growth estimates, and the distribution tells an important story about where the industry stands today. The fastest projected growers include: $PLTR (+62%) $APP (+38%) $ZETA (+35%) $FIG and $NET...
Rubrik's Cloud ARR Surges 48%, Nears Full Transition
$RBRK subscription ARR grew +33.8% YoY, with a record $115M in net new ARR. Cloud ARR now represents 88% of total ARR and is growing +47.7% YoY, indicating that Rubrik is nearing completion of its transition to a cloud-first subscription...
Adobe's Stock Dip Driven by CEO Change, Not Earnings
My thoughts on $ADBE. Although Adobe shares fell -7.8% after earnings, the quarter itself was not as weak as the market reaction suggests. In my view, the decline was largely related to the CEO transition, which introduced uncertainty for investors. One point...
UiPath Posts 111% EPS Surge, 17% Margin
$PATH earnings: profitability inflection with operating margin at 17%, EPS +111% YoY UiPath delivered a strong quarter. Revenue reached $481M (+13.6% YoY) and exceeded expectations, while adjusted EPS also came in ahead of estimates. Investing
SaaS Giants Trade at Sky‑high EV/Sales Multiples
15 Most expensive SaaS stocks by Forward EV/Sales $PLTR — Palantir — 51x $NET — Cloudflare — 26x $APP — AppLovin — 21x $CRWD — CrowdStrike — 18x $FICO — Fair Isaac — 15x $AXON — Axon Enterprise — 13x $SHOP — Shopify — 12x $DDOG —...
AI-Driven Workflows Boost Cyber Risk; Security Platforms Poised for Growth
As AI agents begin operating across enterprise systems, cybersecurity becomes even more critical. Autonomous workflows increase API calls, expand attack surfaces, and accelerate the speed of cyber threats. Security platforms that combine AI detection, real-time telemetry, and integrated infrastructure are becoming...
AI Capex Surge Nearing Peak, Chip Stocks at Risk
We may be near the peak of the semiconductor & memory supercycle. 🧵 Goldman warns hyperscaler AI budgets are consuming a record share of cash flow, suggesting the growth rate of AI capex may soon peak—leaving chip stocks vulnerable to even...
Veeva Sustains 16% YoY Growth, Beats Guidance
My thoughts on $VEEV Revenue growth has remained around +16% YoY over the last four quarters. Veeva beat its own Q4 revenue guidance by 3.2%, and if it similarly beats the forecast next quarter, growth could accelerate to +16.7%. Subscription services non-GAAP...
MDB's 24% Drop Overreacts to Solid Growth
My thoughts on $MDB The stock dropped 24% after earnings. In my view, that’s an overreaction. It wasn’t a perfect quarter, but it was far from weak. Revenue growth accelerated to +26.7% YoY, and the company beat its own guidance by ~3.7%....
Duolingo’s Free‑user Push Stalls as MAU Drops
In Q3, $DUOL management emphasized a strategic shift toward expanding the free-user base to strengthen long-term monetization. Experimentation was positioned around prioritizing DAU growth over short-term revenue optimization. However, Q4 trends show moderation. DAU growth is now expected to slow to...
Snowflake Posts 30% Revenue Surge, Record Bookings
Snowflake prints 30% revenue growth and record bookings momentum $SNOW delivered Q4 revenue of $1.28B (+30% YoY) with product revenue at $1.23B (+30%) and EPS of $0.32, beating estimates by 23%. Growth is re-accelerating at scale. RPO climbed to $9.77B (+42%), billings...
AI Could Boost ServiceNow, Not Just Threaten It
Is $NOW really at risk of AI disruption? $NOW is down ~52% from ATH. The bear case is simple: ~97% of revenue is seat-based. If AI reduces headcount, seat growth slows. But the real question is whether AI replaces ServiceNow… or makes...
AppLovin's 66% Growth, 77% Margin, Stock Still Falls
$APP Growing 66% With 77% Operating Margin — Yet Stock Is Down 42% YTD AppLovin delivered numbers most software companies can’t even model. Revenue up +66% YoY. Operating margin at 77%. And yet the stock is still down 42% YTD. Valuation argument? Forward P/S around 16x. Forward...
TOST Q4 Margins Surge, Profit Spikes over 200%
$TOST Q4: Operating income +140% YoY, net income +216% YoY. Margins expanding across the board. Revenue came in at $1.63B, up 22% YoY. Growth moderated vs +25% last quarter, but profitability stepped up meaningfully. Gross profit grew 27% YoY with gross margin...
AI Data Center Stack: System Build, Not Chip Cycle
AI DATA CENTER STACK — this is a systems build, not a chip cycle 👇 COMPUTE & SERVERS: $NVDA Owns accelerated compute end to end. CUDA locks software, NVLink locks topology. Sells architectures, not chips. Switching costs scale with clusters. $AMD Pressure valve...
AI Infrastructure Drives Hardware Winners in Hyperscaler CAPEX
Hardware winners of the $600B+ hyperscaler CAPEX wave 🧵 Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are prioritizing compute, power, and networking control into 2026. ~75% of spend is AI infrastructure. Price sensitivity is low. Supply is tight. This is a vendor-selection cycle,...