Steve Rattner
Chairman of Willett Advisors (Bloomberg family office CIO); posts timely macro/institutional capital flow charts and commentary relevant to allocators and hedge fund positioning.
Trump Budget Puts Defense Ahead of Domestic Spending
The Trump budget is historic. For the first time in recent history, the government would spend a larger share of its annual budget on defense than on domestic programs. @morningjoe
Trump Budget Prioritizes War, Slashes Social Programs
The Trump budget is war first, American people last. It explodes military funding and brings departments like Labor, Education, and Agriculture to historic lows. @morningjoe
Trump Must End War, Iran Open Hormuz to Curb Prices
The only way to stop an economic spiral is for Trump to end the war and for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. The longer he delays, the longer Americans will struggle with higher oil—and gas—prices. @morningjoe
War and Inflation Likely Cancel Fed Rate Cuts This Year
Markets were expecting two to three rate cuts from the Fed this year until Trump’s War in Iran began to wreak financial havoc. With inflation picking up, it looks like we might not get any rate cuts at all this...
Iran War Creates Unprecedented Oil Shortage, No Spare Capacity
The Iran war has disrupted a greater share of oil supplies than any previous shock. And this time, there is virtually no spare capacity available to make up the gap. @wsj
Iran War Triggers Four-Week Mortgage Rate Surge
Rising inflation and gas prices aren’t the only economic challenges arising from the Iran war. Mortgage rates have risen 4 weeks in a row since Trump started the conflict; the average 30-year rate is now 6.38%. @wsj
Tariff Revenue Too Small to Fund Stimulus Checks
Trump bragged that his tariffs are making so much money, he will be able to send stimulus checks to every American. The truth: tariff revenue is a drop in the bucket in reducing the federal deficit. Source: Peterson Institute
US Inflation Surges to 4.2% Amid Tariffs, War
U.S. consumers will be among the hardest hit by Trump’s tariff policies & the Iran war. The OECD raised its U.S. inflation estimation for this year to 4.2% — an increase of 1.2 percentage points, the 4th largest uptick among all...
Iran Oil Shock Could Lift U.S. Unemployment 20‑40 Bps
Oil shocks don’t just drive up inflation. They also increase unemployment. In the context of an already weak labor market, GS estimates the Iran oil shock will increase the unemployment rate by 20-40 basis points by the end of the year. Source:...
Trump's Policies Hurt Poor, Enrich the Wealthy
Trump was elected on promises to help working Americans catch up. His policies are having the opposite effect. Together, his tariffs and “One Big Beautiful Bill” will decrease incomes for the poorest Americans and disproportionately benefit the highest earners. Source: Tax...
Trump's Iran Conflict Pushes Oil Prices Higher Longer
Trump’s war in Iran is putting extreme pressure on global oil supplies, driving up crude prices that now may stay higher for longer. My @morningjoe Chart
War‑Driven Gas Prices Up $1 per Gallon Nationwide
Rising gas prices caused by the war are already hurting Americans’ bottom line — in both expensive and affordable states. On average, Americans are paying almost $1 more per gallon than they were last month. My @morningjoe e Chart
War‑Driven Fed Outlook Ends Rate‑Cut Expectations
Despite investors’ previous hopes for rate cuts, Trump’s war has worsened the Fed outlook — with markets now not expecting further cuts this year (or next). My @morningjoe Chart