The 12,000 Mile Detour: Can Russia Save Iran’s Oil?
With Western sanctions restricting Iran’s maritime exports, the country is exploring a 12,000‑mile overland and inland‑waterway corridor through Russia to reach Chinese markets. The route would move oil from Iran’s Caspian ports onto rail, through the Volga‑Don Canal, and onto Russian tankers bound for the Black Sea. However, canal depth, tanker size limits, and added transportation costs make the detour economically marginal. Analysts also note that Russia may be reluctant to facilitate the flow due to geopolitical risk.
Global Warning Intelligence Summary 12 - Free for All Members
The Global Warning podcast has released its latest intelligence brief, the McBeth Intel Report 012, as a free PDF for all members. The 840 KB report is available for direct download from the Substack page and accompanies the weekly podcast episode. This...
It's All About the Qubits, Baby
Quantum computing remains in its infancy, with the Department of Defense estimating practical machines are at least ten years away. A recent Congressional Research Service report echoes this timeline, noting that scalable qubit architectures are still experimental. Despite the technical...
The Soviet MiG-23 “Flogger”
The Soviet Union introduced the MiG-23 to address the MiG-21’s limitations in speed, range, radar capability, and missile load. Featuring a variable‑sweep wing, more powerful engine, and beyond‑visual‑range missiles, the aircraft could operate from short or damaged runways. Over 5,000...
Anthropic & the Fight to Avoid AI Abuse
On February 27, 2026, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth used X to criticize Anthropic’s CEO and the company’s Silicon Valley culture, branding the firm a supply‑chain risk. He asserted that the Department of Defense must have full, unrestricted access to...
What's Going on in Iran
In this episode, open‑source intelligence analyst Ryan McBeth breaks down the current Iran‑U.S. standoff, highlighting that Iran’s blockade is costing it roughly $450‑$500 million a day and that its oil storage capacity could be exhausted within weeks. He explains the dilemma...
Canada’s HIMARS Moment
Canada is moving from interest to acquisition of the U.S.‑made M142 HIMARS, with the State Department approving a sale of 26 launchers, rockets and missile pods valued at roughly $1.75 billion. A separate Lockheed Martin contract earmarks an additional $1.13 billion for...
OPEC Shenanigans
The blog spotlights United Nations Treaty Series document No. 6363, published in 1962, which records the formal agreement that created the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The post links to the original text, highlighting its role as a primary source...
Moldova’s Bold Move Against Russia
On April 16‑17, 2026, Moldovan parliament speaker Igor Grosu announced that four to five senior Russian officers operating in the Transnistrian breakaway region were declared undesirable on Moldovan soil. The list includes commander Dmitri Zelenkov, his deputies and staff officers, whom Moldova...
Ukraine's Fortress Belt
Since 2014 Ukraine has maintained a defensive line called the Fortress Belt, encompassing the eastern cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka. Heavy fortifications and entrenched units have turned the belt into a barrier that has repeatedly halted Russian attempts...
Defeating the Drone
The author released a free white paper titled “Defeating the Drone Version A,” which translates key sections of a Ukrainian drone‑operator manual and compiles the latest U.S. Army Counter‑UAS doctrine (ATP 3‑01.81) updates from 2017, 2023 and 2025. The document is offered to...
The Bridge That Taught America to Aim
The Thanh Hóa bridge in northern Vietnam stretched 540 feet, supporting both road and rail traffic across the Song Ma River. In 1965 it served as a vital logistics artery for North Vietnam, prompting the U.S. Joint Chiefs to rank it as...
The Superpower That Could Clear a Valley but Couldn’t Hold a Country
The April 14, 1988 Geneva Accords set a timetable for the Soviet Union’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, marking a formal diplomatic step toward ending its direct involvement. On February 15, 1989, the last Soviet troops crossed the Friendship Bridge, completing the...
Korea’s New(ish) Indigenous Fighter: The KF-21 Boramae
South Korea’s KF-21 Boramae is a domestically designed, next‑generation multi‑role fighter intended to replace aging F‑4, F‑5 and F‑15K aircraft. Developed by Korea Aerospace Industries, the jet incorporates an AESA radar, electronic‑warfare suite, infrared search‑and‑track system and an electro‑optical targeting...
Global Warning Episode 6
Episode 6 of Global Warning examines four pressing geopolitical developments. It highlights the Taiwanese opposition party’s unprecedented visit to mainland China, the Royal Navy’s current inability to field an operational warship, the United States’ rollout of a more aggressive cyber‑defense...