AI Agents and Content Slop Could Kill Social Media
There's a very real chance that social media dies because of AI agents and an overwhelming amount of SLOP.
Bank of America Agrees $72.5M Settlement with Epstein Victims
Can someone help me answer this- how come Bank of America has to pay a settlement for sex trafficking when there has been ZERO arrests for sex trafficking? How does that work? "A federal judge gave preliminary approval for Bank of...
Yen Support Aims to Cool Dollar, Delay Iran Risk
The vol controllers are definitely trying to strengthen the Yen here to make the US dollar go lower. They know the USD wrecking ball was at a point it was about to wreak havoc if it broke higher. JPY/USD most important currency...
Hormuz Vessel Traffic Plummets From 300s to 13
Straight of Hormuz Traffic over time. Vessel traffic dropped by Mid 300s in late Feb to 13 the last week. Just to give you a sense.... https://t.co/lVJpLM2VFe
AI Infrastructure Bubble May Outlast Bears, Financing Key
One of my favorite newsletters, from my friend @Vikram4NH who wrote Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst… “Does this mean an AI infrastructure collapse is imminent? Not necessarily. The strength of hyperscaler balance sheets — more than $200 billion...
Decade of Gains: Taxpayer-Funded Buybacks Enrich 1%
With the Mag 7 rolling over, is there a good case to be make that the last 10 years of outperformance was just a giant Debt-for-Equity swap from taxpayers (more tax dollars allocated to unfunded pensions) to the top 1%...
Brace Yourself: Global Macro Markets Turning Dicey
Grab you lunch pails and get your hard hats on.... Global Macro gettin DICEY @fejau_inc @qthomp https://t.co/c1n3INbRN3
Yen Poised for 30‑year Breakout as Dollar Stalls
30 year base in the Yen and it's about to breakout higher...US Dollar wrecking ball locked & loaded at the same time the geopolitics won't allow for a release of global dollar liquidity. @crossbordercap What say you?! @SantiagoAuFund What're you seeing? https://t.co/pGBvvssGL6
Friend Predicts Market Tops Faster than Anyone
I have a normie friend who is the greatest contra-indicator. He has top-ticked (within a day or two) every blowoff top in single-stocks & sectors in the last 5 years. In a recent single-stock parabolic rise he nailed the top within minutes...It's...
Fed Expands FIMA Access, Extends Window, Could Crash Yields
This is a really great divergent policy thought we should keep on our radar. If it comes to fruition, we could see a collapse in treasury yields. Fantastic work from @ericwallerstein ! “The solution: the Fed should expand FIMA access to sovereign wealth...
Volatility Controllers Push Rates Down, New Acronyms Loom
This chart really says it all from Torsten Slock. The volatility controllers will do anything in their power to get these rates down or things could really snowball in the wrong direction. Can't wait to see what acronyms come out of the...
A Simple Binary Framework for Choosing Trusted Experts
This is a very good macro framework to adopt😂 This is the 1's & 0's of which experts to trust.
Short‑Term Inflation Peaks as Oil Prices Stall
Non-consensus view here @fejau_inc @qthomp ... Feels like short term inflation expectations are likely making a top here. Obviously this has a lot to do with oil. If oil can't go any higher on the headlines now, time to pay attention.......
Homogenized Quant Trading Turns Markets Into Volatility Risk
The public market is just one giant volatility trade now-based off of quant factors. This is what happens when you hollow out active management. You could make the argument it’s way more efficient now, but I think we’ll find out that...
Trump’s AI Ambitions Undermined by Risky Iran Oil Move
On one hand, Trump laid out the 21st Century Manhattan project with the Genesis Plan, promising to lead the world in AI- an objectively good thing for America. @DavidSacks On the other hand, he goes into Iran cutting off oil...
Oil Spikes to $110, Framework Holds—Briefly
This is actually looking like a great framework after oil hit $110 tonight… Aged pretty well for now. Can change in about ten minutes tho 😂
Geopolitics Ignored by HFT, Active Management Becomes Vital
The HFT algos/CTA trend followers don't discount geopolitics very well. If @hkuppy is right, he makes a real case why active management is of ultimate importance when there is a real global change. The VIX is not mean reverting this time,...
AI‑Driven Revenue Drop Threatens Sovereign Bonds, Raises Capital Costs
This is an incredibly thought-provoking global macro piece from @infraa_. If the gov't revenue decline from AI disruption of white collar workers isn't counter-balanced by taxation from AI productivity, we could be tip-toeing into a potential Sovereign Bond Implosion....
Capital Shifts From Tech to Real Assets Amid Deglobalization
This is what happens when export $ recycling slows in a world that is deglobalizing. I.E. When the movement from Capital to Labor shifts, the flow of equity flow moves from digital to real things, from software to hardware, trade...
TLT Call Skew at 90th Percentile, Expect Shakeout
Yep- Skew on TLT (calls expensive to outs) like 1 month out is in the 90th%tile. Gonna get shaken out before yields go lower. Let’s talk about this tomorrow on @ForwardGuidance
Regulation Entrenches Incumbents, Stifling Innovation and Growth
Why is the mkt so centralized? Well, only megacorps survive the red tape & regulatory fees. “Regulation favors the incumbent” Most scaled companies extract value instead of innovate. They use short-vol strategies that extract from the middle class instead of grow...
Software Short‑squeeze Looms as Consumer Staples Pull Back
Whose ready for the short-squeeze in software over the next week because the 26 year-old analysts at the multi-platform funds convinced their PM's to go max short? Then we'll get the Consumer Staples pullback at the same time, when all the...
Older Americans Hold 70% Wealth, Drive Consumer Spending
The least productive part of our economy keeps getting wealthier...If you have a larger balance sheet you've relatively benefitted because of continuous gov't support, while labor has been shoved in a locker. Whatever happened to the party of labor?? hmm🧐🧐 "About 30%...
Seven Firms Command 35% of SPX Investment Dollars
Employment in S&P 500 companies is 18% of total US employment, but 35 cents of every dollar that goes into the SPX goes to 7 companies. This is a market structure problem and a major issue with our 401k system.