Low Multiples Offer Expansion; High Multiples Invite Compression
Guess what, when your portfolio trades at 37x cash flow, multiple compression is a major risk. That’s why my portfolio trades at 3.7x cash flow, so multiple expansion is a major opportunity.
Bumble Rebounds 50% to Rational 30% FCF Yield
Bumble up 50% from the lows. Turns out Mr. Market got a little extreme dumping $BMBL at a >40% free cash flow yield. Now priced at a fully rational ~30% FCF yield.
Weightwatchers Leverages GLP‑1
Weightwatchers now at a market cap of $120m, with: • $160m cash • $110m adj. EBITDA guidance for 2026 • some 80% growth in its GLP-1 business GLP-1 transition couldn’t be any better as Novo Nordisk is going all in on telehealth distribution, with...
Telehealth Gets Discounted GLP‑1 Service, Outsmarts Weightwatchers
GLP-1 as a service and at a massive discount. Entire distribution now massively and exclusively advantaging telehealth providers. Of course Mr efficient thinks that’s a nothing burger for Weightwatchers. Can’t make this up https://t.co/62IYen2o3b
Fewer People, Less Housing; Global Compute Limits Remain Unclear
Obviously, a country with a declining population doesn’t need unlimited residential construction. Much less clear what are the limits to compute needed by the entire world.
Market's Ultra‑Low PE Ratios Signal Doom Forecast
Some next 12 month PE ratios: Bumble: 3.6x Shift4: 7.3x Novo Nordisk: 10.8x HelloFresh: 9.5x Prosus: 9.3x SK Hynix: 5.2x Is Mr Market pricing the end of the world already? $BMBL $FOUR $NVO $HFG $PRX
Clinical Growth Could Flip Earnings by 2028
New writeup (link in bio): WW still looks broken on the surface. Behavioral subs are falling fast. But Clinical is growing so quickly that the whole earnings power story may look very different 12–24 months from now. I break down why 2026...
Shift4 Payments: 7x FCF and 20%+ Growth
New writeup: Shift4 Payments: A Fintech Compounder Trading Like a Melting Ice Cube 7x free cash flow for a business compounding at 20%+ $FOUR Link in bio https://t.co/R6SWOw4hoQ
Bumble's Cash Flow Outpaces Valuation, Fueling Short Squeeze
Bumble is printing cash. Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $71.6m vs $63m guidance. Guides for $78m adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026. Just $413m net debt end of 2026. No cash taxes for the foreseeable future. Should do ~$200m FCF in 2026...
Novo Nordisk and Weightwatchers Extend Collaboration to Germany
Novo Nordisk expands partnership with Weightwatchers to Germany. Dream team. Love to see it. $NVO $WW
Google Trends Predict HelloFresh Revenue Decline Ahead
Google trends for HelloFresh has been tracking at ~20% year-over-year declines for the last two years. It was a pretty solid leading indicator for revenue declines. But look what’s happening now 👀 2026 guidance to be revealed on March 18 could...
Duolingo's $400M Buyback Counters Heavy Short Interest
Duolingo bears are having a great day, but there is an interesting near term set up: 1) 25% of Duolingo float is shorted ($1.2b). 2) Duolingo just launched a $400m buyback program. That adds up to $1.6 billion to be bought sooner...
Duolingo Targets 100 M Users Amid Modest Growth
Duolingo 2026 guidance: Revenue growth and EBITDA margin a slight disappointment, but does everything to double daily active users from 50 million to 100 million. 400 million buyback program initiated ✅ Now at 10.8x EV/EBITDA $DUOL
SoftBank's $30B OpenAI Bet Yields 160% Gain
Quite the investment from SoftBank. SoftBank is up 160% since April 6, 2025 when I wrote it up specifically because of its investment in OpenAI. $9984 $SFTBY