Violence Won’t Replace Failed 40-Day Strike Effort
"What 40 days of sustained strikes failed to achieve will not suddenly be accomplished through attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, high-profile assassinations, or even strikes on civilian infrastructure." -- Dennis Citrinowicz.
Brent Spikes 5% as Market Fears Military Escalation
JUNE BRENT FUTURES AT ALMOST $124, ANOTHER 5% JUMP EARLY THU AFTER A 6% RALLY ON WED. It's the last trading day for the June contract, and most volume has already shifted to July. But still, the market is getting...
Traders Dismiss Political Optimism, Align With Physical Oil Reality
So, what is happening in the crude futures market? Simple : Traders are starting to discount the hope/expectation/sentiment shaped by de-escalatory head fakes from Washington to realign with the reality glaringly evident in the physical markets for weeks now.
US Gas Prices Signal Global Inflation Wave Arriving
A lot of attention on US pump prices. But it’s only the tip of the iceberg of systemic inflation already advancing across the globe. And the US will import it too.
Iran Threatens Military Escalation over US Naval Blockade
Ha! Exactly what we foreshadowed in the Vanda Insights client briefing note earlier today. Iran can re-escalate militarily in the face of a continued US naval blockade. @VandaInsights
US‑Iran Stalemate Fuels Energy Shock, Inflation Surge
💯 Every additional day of US-Iran "stalemate" is delivering another crippling blow to the energy and petrochemicals markets, the fertilisers and food sectors, and ultimately, stoking inflation and choking economic momentum. While the two sides play for time, the growth engine in...
Brent Rebounds Above $109 as Ceasefire Stalls
Day 60 of the war -- Brent futures back above $109. Levels are back where they were before the fragile US-Iran ceasefire took effect, around Day 40, prompting optimism over a deal. 20 days of ceasefire have yielded no breakthrough, no...
Trump’s Phone Calls With Iran Blur Verification, Market Signals
BEWARE. The fog of information war is about to thicken even more. Trump says talks with Iran can happen by phone. “They can call us”. Obviously, that gets Washington out of the bad optics of Iran repeatedly keeping Kushner and Witkoff waiting...
Diplomacy Must Prioritize Humanitarian Release of Trapped Seafarers
What more diplomacy and “practical solutions” would be required if Iran and Oman could agree to at least let the stranded ships and the thousands of trapped seafarers through? When you use the word “humanitarian”, it needs to cut across all...
Iran’s Oil Revenue Persists After Export Shutdowns
Important nuance. Most observers are focused on a countdown to Iran’s storages filling up and oil fields shutting down. But the physical and the financial flows move in different cycles, especially for Tehran under the sanctions regime. Revenues will continue to flow...
Two VLCCs Face US Naval Blockade After Iranian Load
Day 3 of US blockade tanker watch -- Will these two VLCCs be able to get past the US naval blockade after loading Iranian crude?
Trump's Limited Port Blockade Unlikely to Deter Iran
Not sure if Trump understands the difference between the US blockading the Strait of Hormuz and blockading ships going into and out of Iranian ports. In about 12 hours, he has retreated from announcing a FULL US blockade of SoH to...
Iran's SoH Blockade Remains Tehran's Ultimate Bargaining Chip
Point No. 1 was entirely to be expected. SoH blockade and the economic pain it is inflecting is Tehran’s biggest leverage. It will hold on to it till the very end. Why would the US think it would surrender it this early?...
US‑Iran Talks Aim to Boost Hormuz Traffic Soon
Will the US-Iran negotiations starting today be able to secure a material increase in the Strait of Hormuz transits early on? Courtesy FT: https://t.co/SLCKkZ5fdc
Trump Claims Oil Will Flow Quickly, with or without Iran
Oil will start flowing "very quickly" with or without the help of Iran, says Trump. Surely, that means within the ceasefire period? If yes, it has to be WITH the help of Iran. https://t.co/zTuohSKNV8
US Troops Hold Position; Tehran Cites Ceasefire Violation
US military is staying put until a final deal is done and delivered on, Trump says in a post minutes ago. Another violation of ceasefire terms, Tehran might say. https://t.co/gfI9iETM3Y
Sarcastic Doubt over Immediate Strait of Hormuz Reopening
Yeah right. Just as it also agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately and unconditionally.
Red Flags Spotted in Rushed Ceasefire Announcement
I see red flags in the hastily announced ceasefire, I told @CNBC earlier today, even before the cracks began to emerge: https://t.co/lfFKPFuTKn
Trump's Stance on Iran's 10‑Point Proposal Remains Unclear
So, which is true? Trump agreed to make Iran’s 10-point proposal the basis for negotiations Or He threw the Iran’s 10-point proposal in the bin Or The 10-point proposal he got was not what Iran made public?
Futures Market Crumbling as Physical Oil Scarcity Persists
The Strait of Hormuz May remain shut, the barrels of oil may remain firmly locked in. The ceasefire may not hold. But nobody will dare go long on crude futures. Because there will be yet another false dawn, and they will get...
Silence of Missiles, Open Hormuz Proves Peace
Trump and Iran can say whatever they like about the 10-point / 15-point plans. The final proof, whether it is a ceasefire or a peace deal, will be in the missiles and drones flying across the region falling silent and ….. The...
Washington Claims Peace as Iran Keeps Hormuz Closed
The war intrigue has gone beyond anyone’s wildest imagination, I wonder what comes next. Washington will declare it has signed a peace deal exactly on its terms and claim the Strait of Hormuz has been fully reopened, while Iran continues to...
US Claims Iran's 10‑point Plan Mirrors Its Own
Now the US will say Iran’s 10-point plan is actually the same as the US’ 15-point plan, with five of the points consolidated into the remaining 10. 🤦♀️
Iran Demands Hormuz Control, US Withdrawal, Sanctions Lift
Iran’s 10-point proposal. (Google translation) The ten points in the proposed Iranian plan, according to a statement from the Iranian Supreme National Security Council: 1. Regulating traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the Iranian armed forces, thereby giving Iran a...
Hormuz Closure Irreversible: Once Shut, No Reopening
The Strait of Hormuz May have been “shut” like a tap. It cannot be turned back “on” like a tap.
Trump’s Praise of Iran Plan Just Buys Time
It’s hard to imagine Trump genuinely thinks Iran’s 10-point plan is “a workable basis” for negotiations, as per his Truth Social post. All that he has done is bought another 2 weeks. What will he do with it — that’s...
Crude's 15% Drop Fueled by Emotion, Not Fundamentals
Why has crude crashed almost 15%? Not because of any rational assessment of the normalisation of Hormuz oil flows. That will take time. The knee-jerk sell-off is 💯 driven by pure emotion and sentiment. This is a market that has been desperately...
Mediators Send 45-Day Ceasefire Proposal; US, Iran Yet to Respond
Just to be absolutely clear, as the headlines on the 45-day ceasefire proposal are misleading. US and Iran “receiving” a ceasefire proposal does NOT mean they have exchanged proposals. Rather, mediators - Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan - have drawn up a proposal...
Ceasefire Stalled: US Wants Open Strait, Iran Opposes
Okay, so here’s how how the ceasefire cookie crumbles: - A ceasefire without the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will likely be unacceptable to the US. - A ceasefire with a reopening will likely be unacceptable to Iran. Iran appears serious...
Iran Threatens Massive Saudi, Israeli Infrastructure Strike Within 24 Hours
“Strategic Assessment: If Iran does not receive a credible signal by tomorrow of Trump reconsidering an attack on Iran's infrastructure, it will preemptively, irreversibly, and on a massive scale target the Saudi electricity and oil production infrastructure, as well as...
India Cuts Fuel Taxes, Firms Absorb Losses, Supplies Secured
Indian government has cut excise taxes on petrol and diesel to help keep pump prices stable. Oil marketing companies are also sharing the burden, bearing losses of INR 24/litre (12 cents) on petrol and INR 104/litre ($1.12) on diesel.
World Powers Divide Leadership: US Yet to Define Role
-- Netanyahu leads by initiating the war -- Tehran leads in shaping the horizontal escalation -- Asia, Europe and the Mideast being asked to take the lead in reopening the Strait of Hormuz -- The US takes the lead in...?
Trump’s Annual Crisis‑driven Theatrics Become Predictable Spectacle
2 April 2025: Trump unleashes his reciprocal tariffs storm 1 April 2026: Trump delivers the hollowest "address to the nation" in the 2nd month of the Iran war oil shock Any guesses for April 2027 and April 2028?
Trump’s Address: Empty Rhetoric, Iran Threat Over Oil
What was the purpose of Trump's address to the nation? - He said absolutely nothing that hadn't already been said multiple times in recent days - He offered nothing to sustainably drive oil prices lower and US equities higher - Given the widespread...
Trump Open to Ending War Without Reopening Hormuz
Not sure what to make of words on the war from Trump any more, but here you go: "Trump tells aides he's willing to end war without reopening Hormuz" -- WSJ Admin officials assess that forcing the waterway back open would mean...
20 Massive Oil Tankers Set to Transit Strait of Hormuz
Relax, everyone in Asia. 20 "big boats of oil" are about to pass through SoH.
India, Pakistan Seek Iran Ship Passage Deals; Trump Inflates Claim
India, Pakistan and a few other countries are labouring to seal bilateral diplomatic deals with Iran -- on a case-by-case basis -- to secure safe passage for some of their ships out of the Persian Gulf via the SoH. Trump is...
Trump Backs Seizing Iran's Kharg Island, Hints Prolonged US Presence
Trump tells the FT he likes the idea of seizing control of Iran’s Kharg Island. It could mean US troops have to remain there “for a while”. https://t.co/J48vWMuepX
Zelensky Seeks Diesel Abroad as Drones Hit Russian Oil
Make it make sense. Zelensky tours the war-ravaged Middle Eastern countries over the weekend, anxious to secure Ukraine’s diesel supplies. In the latest stepped-up strikes on Russian oil ports, Ukrainian drones damage Ust-Luga.
US Steps Back, Lets Others Pay Iran's Strait Fees
But of course. It's not the US' problem. Literally saying, "now let the rest of the world fight it out with Iran. We're done here." Interesting new angle, though: Is it all just about money for Iran? What about their...
Iran War Unleashes Unprecedented Oil Market Disconnect
The complexity, uncertainty and fluidity of the Iran war’s impact on oil markets have made it increasingly challenging to compress analysis into 45-second soundbites in 5-7 minute TV interviews — though I’ve done my best over the past 4 weeks. So...
Iran's Hormuz Fee Push Spurs Focus on Malacca
Iran's bid to start charging a fee to vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz (Tehran never ratified the UNCLOS despite signing it in 1982) is making other countries ensure they don't encounter such risks in other chokepoints -- the Straits...
Iran Threatens Retaliation over Planned Island Occupation
Iranian parliament speaker Ghalibaf. "Based on some data, Iran's enemies, with the support of one of the regional countries, are preparing to occupy one of the Iranian islands. All enemy movements are under the full surveillance of our armed...
WTO Tracker Shows Heavy Oil/LNG Traffic Through Hormuz
Look at the number of oil and LNG vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz in the WTO's newly-launched tracker. It is based on "AIS-traceable vessels only" -- but I think that's a fair picture. Who in their right mind would think "dark...
US Media Fuels Unwarranted Optimism on Iran Talks
Where is all the latest burst of optimism and positivity about US-Iran "negotiations" coming from? 100% US-based media. There are 3 parties in this war. Think about that.
Iran’s Fragmented Leadership Clouds US Negotiation Prospects
Important nuance before assuming the stage is set for US-Iran negotiations: ❓ How unified is Iran’s top leadership at present — across the legislative branch, the military (especially the IRGC), and the religious establishment? ❓ Does Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf hold...
US Eyes Iran Talks, War Likely Persists Weeks
This could be the beginning of the end. But feels tentative. 👉Axios reports the Trump administration is "game-planning" for potential negotiations with Iran. ❗️BUT expect the conflict to continue for at least another 2-3 weeks. Important -- It's an exploratory stage planning for...
US Lifts Iran Oil Sanctions, but Supply Stays Scarce
US suspends Iran oil sanctions for a month, allowing sale of all barrels on water as of March 20. Another band-aid. There are no more than 30 million barrels of Iranian oil in floating storage waiting for buyers, as per ship-tracking...
Brent Slides to $105 as Hormuz Remains Shut
Brent cools down to $105 early Friday. The war has entered its 21st day, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed. Have some in the market drunk the kool-aid again?
Joe Kent Claims Israel Relies on U.S. Lobby Power
Joe Kent tells Tucker Carlson: Israel alone cannot execute "regime change" operations on its own, so it needs the US ... which is why the Israeli lobby is so "potent, powerful and aggressive".