Treasury Yields Surge; Fed Cuts Needed to Reach 6%
Bond Market on Edge: Treasury Yields Spike, 30-Year to 5.03%, Mortgage Rates to 6.52%, as Gulf War Reheats. Which raises a question: How many more Fed rate cuts would it take in this inflationary era to drive the 30-year Treasury yield to 6%? https://t.co/LDXFZSRgYW https://t.co/bD6Ce7mxjh
Core Services Inflation Surges to 3.7%, Beyond Energy
Inflation in the Entire US economy Is Rocking and Rolling, and It’s Not Just Energy. The 6-month core services PCE inflation index, accelerating since August, hit 3.7% annualized. Chip prices and software wreak havoc amid consumer electronics https://t.co/tJlBtm0nLC https://t.co/BYiIsiCep8
AI Fuels 2.5% Q1 GDP Growth Amid Shrinking Government Spending
Without Government Spending & Trade, GDP Rose by 2.5% in Q1, Boosted by AI Investments. Debt-to-GDP ratio Ticks up to 122.6%. Consumer Spending Was OK-ish. Federal government spending spiked back partially after collapsing during the shutdown. Trade worsened https://t.co/8UANSTsuey
Powell to Lose QE Chair, Warsh Takes Over
And here is Powell at the press conference: Regime Change: Powell, Chair of Mega-QE & “Ample Reserves Regime,” to Be Replaced by Warsh, who Wants Smaller Balance Sheet But Powell will stay on as governor until “the investigation is well and...
Fed Holds Rates Amid Record Dissent, Split Hawk‑Dove
This Fed Meeting Must Have Been a Hoot. Fed Holds Rates amid 4 Dissents, most since 1992: 1 Dovish, 3 Hawkish. “Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.” In part. And in part for other...
Housing Supply Surges Past Population, Creating Accidental Landlords
Housing Unit Growth Far Outruns Population Growth: Vacant Units on the Market and the “Accidental Landlords.” These dynamics are now moving in the right direction. https://t.co/J2ThoTPrRD https://t.co/GVUspOBlLG
Real‑Estate Brokerage Stocks Crash 70‑85% Amid Debt Crisis
Two More Imploded Real-Estate Brokerage Stocks Tie the Knot: REMAX -85% from Peak, Real Brokerage -70%. Been brutal for real-estate stocks plunging from overhyped or meme-stock valuations amid thick losses, lots of debt, frozen housing market https://t.co/0ex7YYwN5x https://t.co/PNvZEUojQM
Treasury Sales Surge, Inflation Beats T‑Bill Yields
US Government Sold $524 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. Inflation to Surpass T-Bill Yields. Brutal Bond Math The effects of Tax Day. The 10-Year Treasury yield rose to 4.31%, 30-Year Treasury yield to 4.91% https://t.co/NSPwUq5RC8 https://t.co/v0dwKukdIK
Warsh's Fed Balance Sheet Cut Push Gains Senate Confirmation
Senate Confirmation of Warsh, who Wants to Reduce the Fed’s Balance Sheet, Gets Unstuck as DOJ Ends Powell Investigation. Even during the Senate hearings, Warsh stuck to his guns: the Fed should have a smaller balance sheet https://t.co/NHR0nbQLhS
US LNG Exports Surge: 10th Terminal Ships First Cargo
Dynamics and Surging Magnitude of US LNG Exports: Started 10 Years Ago in a Glut of Natural Gas that Collapsed the Price. Now 10th liquefaction & export terminal shipped first cargo. List of LNG export terminals, operating & under construction https://t.co/HdkB6QZpYk https://t.co/chnWGcbNcj
Avis Budget Crashes 72% as Hedge Funds Clash
Hedge-Fund Meme-Stock Short-Squeeze Queen Avis Budget [CAR] Implodes by 72% in 26 Hours. “Stairs up, express elevator down” as hedge funds sock it to each other. https://t.co/eUZopg0LLd https://t.co/2QfJTVrZ5B
RTO Stalls, Full‑paid Remote Work Falls Just 1% Annually
RTO Languishes Despite Efforts to Force it to Happen, only Minuscule Reduction in WFH since Early 2023. The share of “full paid days worked from home” has been declining by only about 1 percentage point per year https://t.co/W72JXZ7Ow8 https://t.co/9oubj4h3lR
Pending Home Sales Plunge
Pending Home Sales Still in the Deepfreeze, Drop in the West & Midwest, Tick up in the South & Northeast . Down by 35% from 2021, by 30% from 2019, and by 31% from 2018. The housing market is in the 4th...
Condo Prices Drop 12‑31% Across Major Markets
Condo Prices Dropped by 12% to 31% in 31 Bigger Markets. Some Are where They’d Been 20 Years ago, such as Oakland. Condos face some special challenges. Oakland (-31%), St. Petersburg, FL (-28%), Austin (-26%) … the names pile up. https://t.co/SfUETbLV1D https://t.co/Jqb669OFDP
Expensive U.S. Cities See Sharp Housing Price Swings
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, March 2026. From “Mansion Shortage” in AI-bubble-epicenter San Francisco infecting mid-tier home prices, to Austin & Oakland prices plunging over 25% since 2022 https://t.co/gQYh2m0pnZ https://t.co/v3Kk4XR5CY
Foreign Share of US Treasury Demand Likely Overstated
The Largest Foreign Holders of US Treasury Securities and the “Basis Trade”: April 2026 Update. Foreign demand for the ballooning US Treasury debt is an increasingly important issue. But how much of that demand is actually “foreign?” https://t.co/qUbusfuVOx https://t.co/HYoQrWI8cP
Vehicle Ownership Costs Jump 36% Since 2020
Car & Truck Inflation in America: Cost of Vehicle Ownership Soared by 36% since 2020. Prices of new & used vehicles, insurance, gasoline, maintenance & repairs, parts & accessories, and fees https://t.co/XQGaCM6zaV https://t.co/oRSKzIye85
PPI Climbs >6% Monthly, Energy Spikes Drive Third Rise
PPI Jumps by over 6% Month-to-Month Annualized for 3rd Month in a Row. Energy Price Spike just Latest Wrinkle. Hit from energy in March was softened by food and services, which briefly backed off. In prior months, services were the...
Home Sales Plummet as Supply Peaks, Condos Hit Record Low
Single-Family Home Sales Drop Further into Deepfreeze, Supply Hits 10-Year High, Condo Sales Plunge to Record Low March was a lousy beginning of spring selling season. But mortgage rates ticked up only modestly. https://t.co/B5wK4sU0lw https://t.co/jYisYhV9je
Energy Price Surge Drives up U.S. CPI Inflation
First Wave of Energy Price Spikes Hit CPI Inflation. Energy that Americans pay for directly: Gasoline, propane, fuel oil, other fuels, utility natural gas, and electricity https://t.co/SiGQSZV2zn https://t.co/uO9XHnvFt8
US Debt Costs Remain High, Slightly Less Ugly
It’s ugly, but slightly less ugly: US Government Interest Payments, Tax Receipts, Average Interest Rate on the Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q4 2025 https://t.co/DGqm2fqkjX https://t.co/HaOX0c5eRE
ECB Cuts QE by Half, Sheds €66B in March
The Once Uber-Dovish ECB Continues QT, Shed €66 Billion in March, Has now Shed 50% of QE Assets since Peak. Marking its gold to market every quarter (unlike the Fed), the ECB booked another big write-up of its gold holdings in...
Six‑Month Core PCE Inflation Hits Biggest Rise Since June
Six-Month Core PCE Inflation (still before Iran War) Jumps by Most since June 2024. The Fed Needs to Pay Attention. “Market-Based Core PCE price index,” which excludes the imputed housing components, spiked by the most since Feb 2023 https://t.co/KOLueRyxu5 https://t.co/DPUqjECgON
European Home Prices Span Bubbles to 2010 Lows
Home Prices in the 19 Largest European Countries Range from Housing Bubbles to a Market that Fell back to 2010. Here's Germany: https://t.co/aRKT01YIiS https://t.co/yIGmTLgpMC
Used Car Prices Soar, Signaling New Inflation Pressures
Used Vehicle Wholesale Prices Jumped. That’s How it Started in 2020 when Broad Inflation Took Off. These new inflation pressures suddenly building up in the pipeline are concerning https://t.co/B4HOh7mQGF https://t.co/9BkcLbGOSG
Japan's 10‑Year Yield Peaks, Yen Slumps to 160
Japanese Government 10-Year Yield Highest since 1997, Yen at 160 despite Intervention Threats, But Bond Vigilantes Still Dead. Inflation and deteriorating yen pushed the BOJ into hawkish stance, and bond yields are on their own https://t.co/sF7g5sRsaq https://t.co/XX7yIUKRhS
US Labor Market Paradox: Low Demand, Shrinking Workforce
This is the Weirdest US Labor Market I’ve Ever Seen. Demand for labor is weak amid job destruction at federal & state governments, which should push up unemployment. But the supply of labor has plunged https://t.co/AyqHHkWDji Federal government jobs lowest since 1966. Hi...
Tariffs Cut Trade Deficit to Lowest Since 2020
The Massive Unsustainable Trade Deficit in Goods Has Improved Sharply. Tariffs Are Doing their Job. The 6-month average trade deficit in goods fell to $80 billion, the least-bad since 2020 https://t.co/xhTU8KRbPU https://t.co/pDi3O4iYwF
California March Home Sales Near Decade High, San Jose Leads
Homes for Sale in California Rose to the 2nd Highest for March in at Least a Decade as Demand Withered: The Biggest Markets. In the San Jose metro (Silicon Valley), active listings hit at least a 10-year record for March. But...
US Dollar Reserve Share Hits 31‑Year Low Amid Diversification
Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Drops to 31-Year Low as Central Banks Diversify into Other Currencies & Gold. The spike of the “non-traditional reserve currencies.” https://t.co/cHnT24iCcd https://t.co/kINZT79BbA
Lock‑in Effect Keeps Sub‑3% Mortgages Alive, ARMs Plummet
Update on the “Lock-in Effect” in the Housing Market: Below-3% & 4% Mortgages Fade Very Slowly. Share of ARMs originations fell further and is at historic lows: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database https://t.co/ZUvlUdW3RE https://t.co/bqPa12CUrs
US Labor Market's Mixed Signals Signal New Normal
The US Labor Market Confounds with its Countercurrents. It May Be the New Normal Labor Market. The Fed has also struggled in dealing with this labor market https://t.co/5TJNIc4U16 https://t.co/JLm2HmsMRX
Fed's Losses Shrink; QE Hangover Eases After QT
Fed’s Operating Losses Declined to $19 Billion in 2025, “Unrealized Losses” Declined to $844 Billion. QE hangover a little less atrocious after years of QT and lower interest rates https://t.co/iwXBD2STH5 https://t.co/JmA1t7ABYD
Mortgage Rates Surge, Home Purchase Applications Plummet 35%
There Goes the Spring Selling Season: Mortgage Rates Jump, Mortgage Applications to Purchase a Home Drop. Mortgage purchase applications are down by 35% from the same period in 2019 in a housing market that remains frozen https://t.co/sR0N0Jznl0 https://t.co/Hkfy4IziDs
Rising Diesel Prices Threaten New Inflationary Spiral
$5+ Diesel Could Unleash Inflationary Mindset the Fed Better Not “Look Through.” Inflation Was already Hot before Iran War. When this inflationary mindset takes off, inflation becomes like a runaway train https://t.co/51qim5kPk6 https://t.co/cBfjwNFSno
Data‑center Spending Tops Office Building Outlays for First Time
Construction of Data Centers, Power Plants, Factories, and Office Buildings: Boom & Bust. Explosive spending on data-centers exceeded plunging spending on office buildings for the first time ever https://t.co/tQEp35k7kh https://t.co/Q5rHJ5IIDT
Treasury Yields Spike, Curve Uninverts, Signaling Rate Hike
2-Year, 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Flip to Rate Hike. Yield Curve Uninverts. Government Sold $606 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week as the Borrowing Must Go On. Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front...
Americans Stockpile Low‑Risk, Interest‑Earning Assets
Money-Market Funds & CDs: Americans’ Ballooning Piles of Interest-Earning Low-Risk Investments. They’re investment choices, like bond funds, bonds, etc., not that illusory “cash on the sidelines” https://t.co/lVQU0uXsDh https://t.co/eIxrOAhyxN
New Home Prices Fall, Inventory Peaks Since 2009
Prices of New Single-Family Homes Drop Further, Inventory of Completed New Homes for Sale Highest since 2009. Hoping for lower mortgage rates that may not come https://t.co/xfMYbwdtVK https://t.co/ImauhfwDWA
US Debt Surges to $39T, Bond Market Turns Edgy
Bond Market Gets Edgy as US Treasury Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Spiking by $2 Trillion in 7.5 Months and Not Slowing Down. But debt doesn’t exist in a vacuum: The Debt-to-GDP and Deficit-to-GDP ratios provide (ugly) context https://t.co/0XZ6rkEoI5 https://t.co/ZYPLRQgVkY
Fed Holds Rates, Warns No Cut Without Inflation Progress
Fed Holds Rates, now with Only 1 Dissenter, Sees Accelerating Inflation & GDP Growth. Dot Plot projections still point at 1 rate cut in 2026. Powell: “If we don’t see that progress [on inflation], then you won’t see that rate cut.” https://t.co/d1jJR0aFr2
Producer Prices Surge, Undermining Fed’s Rate‑Cut Gains
Hot Producer Price Inflation Adds to Fed’s Complex and Worsening Inflation Problem. Worst 6-month PPI inflation since August 2022 (+5.3% annualized). After multiple rate cuts by the Fed, inflation heats up everywhere: services, food, energy, other goods https://t.co/bCQedto2Yy https://t.co/l9dugS4fI2
Housing Bubbles Vary: Some Cities Plunge, Others Soar
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, February 2026. Each city has its own housing market. In some, home prices have dropped a lot; in others, prices have hit new highs https://t.co/ILCCiyvcIJ https://t.co/AfImn5LKKw
Pending Home Sales Rise, Yet Mortgage Rates Surge Past 6.3%
Pending Home Sales Ticked Up from Record Low. But Now Mortgage Rates Spiked Back over 6.3%. Home sales in February, as feeble as they were, benefitted from the lowest mortgage rates in years. Those rates are now gone https://t.co/2mll3eAbGK https://t.co/lVfYXLQXRz
Treasury Yields Surge, Mortgage Rates Spike Amid Deficit Fears
Treasury Yields Jump, 10-Year to 4.28%, 30-Year to 4.90%, Mortgage Rates Spike to 6.41%, on Inflation & Deficit Fears. US Government sold $651 billion of Treasury securities this week into these rising yields https://t.co/PBjZjAGHme https://t.co/VXWtZ8bNKw
Lennar Slashes Prices to 2017 Levels Amid Market Sl
What it Takes to Sell Homes in this Market: Lennar Cuts Average Selling Price to 2017 Level Lower margins, lower revenues per sq.ft., lower construction costs. “We're adapting to market conditions as they are not not waiting for the market to...
Q4 Domestic Inflation Rises to 3.8%, Worst Since 2022
BEA also released its revised GDP data for Q4, including the Price Index Gross Domestic Purchases, broadest inflation index for domestic inflation, which excludes import prices. It was revised up today to 3.8% for Q4, worst since Q4 2022 https://t.co/ATVMhOch9V...
Core PCE Inflation Peaks at 3.1%, Surpassing CPI
Core PCE Inflation Hits 3.1%, Worst in 2 Years, in Unique Twist Blows way past CPI Inflation. Driven by Core Services. Energy spike is still to come. The Fed needs to pay attention https://t.co/ATVMhOch9V https://t.co/fBae4ie2QQ
Gasoline Dip Masks Rising Electricity and Natural Gas Costs
Energy Inflation for Americans. Dropping gasoline prices since mid-2022 papered over big price increases in electricity and natural gas. But that’s now over https://t.co/KjuZv4jN7V https://t.co/8HsWsulfsD
US Food Inflation Accelerates Amid Mixed Category Trends
Food Inflation in America. Not good. Looking at major categories of foods. Some continued to spike (beef, coffee), others continued to plunge (eggs), others changed less. Overall food inflation accelerated on top of already very high prices https://t.co/taRrQJWe4I https://t.co/IdfYxkT1G2