Elliott Wave Update of USDCAD – March 11th, 2026

Key Takeaways

• USDCAD flat despite oil price swings.
• Critical resistance at 1.3800 identified.
• Elliott Wave suggests upcoming corrective move.
• Traders advised to monitor oil volatility.
• USD strength linked to geopolitical tensions.

Summary

The latest Elliott Wave update notes that USDCAD has remained virtually unchanged this week despite extreme volatility in crude‑oil prices. Analysts highlight a critical resistance level around 1.3800 that could dictate short‑term direction. While oil surged 36% following geopolitical tensions, the currency pair’s stability suggests divergent market drivers. The report advises traders to watch this key level for potential corrective moves.

Pulse Analysis

The USDCAD pair’s near‑flat performance this week stands out against a backdrop of sharp crude‑oil fluctuations, where prices have jumped over a third following the Israel‑US confrontation with Iran. Such divergence underscores the currency’s sensitivity to broader risk sentiment rather than commodity‑driven flows. For investors, the pair’s steadiness signals that traditional drivers—interest‑rate differentials and macro‑policy—remain dominant, while oil’s volatility is being priced elsewhere in the market.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current price action aligns with a completed impulse wave, positioning USDCAD at a potential corrective phase. Analysts have pinpointed a resistance zone near 1.3800, which historically marks the termination point of similar corrective patterns. A breach above this level could initiate a fresh impulse, while a sustained test below may confirm a deeper retracement. The wave count suggests that traders should remain vigilant for price oscillations that respect Fibonacci ratios, providing a framework for timing entries and exits.

Practically, forex traders should incorporate the identified resistance into their risk‑management protocols, setting stop‑loss orders just below 1.3800 to guard against false breakouts. Simultaneously, monitoring oil price movements remains prudent, as any sustained shift could eventually spill over into the CAD, given Canada’s commodity exposure. Looking ahead, if geopolitical tensions ease and oil stabilizes, USDCAD may resume its typical correlation with risk sentiment, offering opportunities for directional bets anchored in Elliott Wave analysis. This nuanced view equips professionals with actionable insight beyond headline volatility.