Monday: Aussie Dollar Riding High on RBA Hike

The latest U.S. CPI report showed headline inflation at 0.2% in January, just under forecasts, while core inflation held steady at 0.3% year‑over‑year. ANZ’s G3 chief highlighted unchanged core goods prices and a modest decline in super‑core inflation, signalling gradual disinflation as tariff effects fade. These data kept equity markets flat, nudged the 10‑year Treasury lower, and left the Aussie dollar resilient, buoyed by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent rate hike and expectations of a forthcoming Fed easing cycle.

Commodity markets reacted to Indonesia’s decisive two‑thirds cut at the world’s largest nickel mine, pulling prices back toward $17,000‑$18,000 per tonne after a brief surge. The supply curtailment promises a more stable nickel market, easing pressure on downstream battery manufacturers. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s fourth‑quarter GDP surged to 6.3% YoY, outpacing estimates thanks to robust services, tourism, and heightened domestic investment. The central bank now faces a policy dilemma: balance strong growth with modest inflation, while investors eye the country’s AAA rating and expanding electronics sector as growth catalysts.

In the deep‑dive segment, ANZ’s Greater China chief economist framed 2026 as the “year of the firehorse,” forecasting a shift toward productivity‑led growth under China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan. Emphasis will move from property‑driven expansion to AI, robotics, and high‑tech manufacturing, leveraging total factor productivity to sustain development. The contraction in fixed‑asset investment last year, paired with rising machine‑tool spending, underscores this structural pivot. For global investors, the transition signals new opportunities in technology supply chains and a rebalancing of risk away from traditional real‑estate exposure.