Dangote Drives Nigeria’s Domestic Fuel Supply Above 57% as Imports Retreat

Why It Matters

The refinery’s ramp‑up reduces Nigeria’s reliance on costly fuel imports, strengthening the balance of payments and stabilising domestic fuel prices. It also positions the country as a regional energy hub, attracting downstream investment.

Key Takeaways

• Domestic output up 25% to 40.1 mln L/day
• Petrol imports fell over 54% YoY in Q1 2025
• Ex‑depot petrol price dropped to $0.50 per litre
• Expansion plan targets 1.4 m bpd capacity
• Refinery now supplies 62% of premium motor spirit

Pulse Analysis

Nigeria has long relied on imported gasoline and diesel, a vulnerability that strained the nation’s foreign‑exchange reserves and left consumers exposed to volatile global oil prices. The Dangote Refinery, now operating at its full 650,000 bpd single‑train capacity, has shifted the balance dramatically. In January 2026 the plant processed a record 40.1 million litres of crude per day, accounting for 57 % of the country’s total fuel supply and delivering 62 % of premium motor spirit. This operational milestone not only marks the world’s largest privately‑owned refinery but also signals a turning point in Nigeria’s energy self‑sufficiency.

The surge in domestic output has translated into immediate price relief. Ex‑depot petrol fell to roughly $0.50 per litre, while diesel slipped below $0.65, easing inflationary pressure on transport and logistics costs. Analysts estimate that reduced imports could save the government up to $10 billion annually in foreign‑exchange outlays. Moreover, the refinery’s growing export corridor—shipping diesel and jet fuel to Ghana, Togo and Cameroon—positions Nigeria as a regional petro‑chemical hub. These dynamics reinforce the refinery’s role in stabilising the West African fuel market and enhancing Nigeria’s trade balance.

Looking ahead, Aliko Dangote’s ambition to double capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day promises further economic dividends, including expanded petro‑chemical production and job creation. However, scaling up will require sustained investment in ancillary infrastructure, such as pipelines and storage, and careful management of feedstock quality to avoid operational bottlenecks. The refinery’s success also depends on regulatory certainty and continued government support for local content policies. If these challenges are met, the Dangote complex could become a cornerstone of Africa’s downstream sector, reducing the continent’s import dependence and attracting downstream investment.

Dangote Drives Nigeria’s Domestic Fuel Supply Above 57% as Imports Retreat

By Alex Kimani · Feb 16 2026, 11:30 AM CST

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery processed a record 40.1 million litres of crude per day in January, representing 57 % of the total supply and marking a 25 % increase from 32 million litres in December 2025. The refinery now supplies 62 % of the country’s Premium Motor Spirit, overtaking fuel importers for the first time ever. The giant plant—the world’s largest single‑train refinery—finally reached full operational capacity at 650,000 bpd, marking an important milestone in Nigeria’s efforts to cut reliance on imported fuel.

Located in Lekki, near Lagos, Nigeria, Dangote Refinery was officially commissioned on May 22 2023 by former Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari and began production of diesel and aviation fuel in January 2024. Nigeria’s total crude‑oil production for January 2026 was approximately 1.459 million barrels per day. The Dangote refinery has reached full capacity after completing the stabilization and optimization of its core units, specifically the Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) and the Motor‑Spirit (MS) production block.

The Dangote refinery has begun to ease fuel‑price pressures in Nigeria, cutting its ex‑depot petrol price to about $0.50 per litre in February 2026, down from roughly $0.53 previously. Diesel prices were reduced to around $0.65 per litre, down from earlier levels of approximately $0.78 to $1.04. During the festive season, the refinery briefly lowered petrol prices to about $0.45 per litre before adjusting them back to roughly $0.52.

Higher domestic output from the refinery is expected to curb Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel. Projections indicate the country could save up to $10 billion annually in foreign‑exchange previously spent on fuel imports. The impact has been significant, with petrol imports falling by more than 54 % year‑on‑year in the first quarter of 2025 as local supply increased.

Beyond the domestic market, the refinery is also supplying refined products to other African countries. Diesel and jet‑fuel shipments have reached Ghana, Togo, and Cameroon, positioning the facility as a regional export hub and a key player in Nigeria’s fuel market.

However, Aliko Dangote is not about to rest on his laurels and has initiated plans to expand the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, which would further boost the economy through increased petro‑chemical production.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com