Finance Social Media and Updates
Finance Social Media and Updates
Finance Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
At the start of the year 1M RV was printing 8-9%. It has more than doubled. Vol-control funds are required by mandate to keep cutting equity exposure until that spread closes. Wouldn't be surprised to see this "unwind" a little this week but I do not think they are done selling.
Taking a look at OpenAI and Anthropic’s finances ahead of their IPOs OpenAI expects to spend $121 billion on computing power for AI research in 2028...anticipates burning $85 billion that year even after almost doubling sales from the prior year....
Elon Musk pressures potential SpaceX investors to use Grok and advertise on X Major firms like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs reportedly investing millions SpaceX IPO targets $1–2 trillion+ valuation, one of the largest ever The move is seen as attempt to boost X...
Jamie Dimon on private credit (via his annual shareholder letter): Actual losses right not are already a little higher than they should be, relative to the environment. "By and large, private credit does not tend to have great transparency or rigorous...
Here I am concerned about a 1.5% miss in expenses while the OpenAI CFO is thinking $600B spend over a few years is a tad too much…
Investors should look at fully diluted shares outstanding #FDSO when looking at the market cap of a company. Dilutive securities, including options, warrants, converts, etc, can have a meaningful impact on the actual market cap of a company #learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing...
It's "off topic" for Macro Tourists this morning, but its still happening Japanese Bond Yields ramping to new #Quad3 Cycle Highs as markets price in higher inflation https://t.co/tz4Pb6zTgP
AUROBINDO PHARMA Tender Buyback Approved Buyback Price : 1,475₹ Today's Closing Price : 1,334 ₹ Buyback Size ₹ : 800 Crore Buyback Size in Shares : 54,23,728 Shares Retail Quota : 8,13,560 Shares Record Date for Buyback : 17 April, 2026
MyPOV: the middle east to the rescue. Gulf Funds Near Deal to Back Paramount’s $81 Billion Takeover of Warner https://t.co/hTIMzrGhf5
is this February news? Paramount is in talks to secure signed equity commitments of close to $24 billion from three sovereign-wealth funds led by Saudi Arabia to help back its takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery https://t.co/7XR7k0sk2k via @WSJ
Gulf sovereign capital speeds media consolidation. ~$24bn Saudi-led backing lowers financing risk for Paramount’s $81bn Warner bid. Risks: regs, execution, leverage. Trade: buy Paramount. 🔍 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
I have been thinking about the news that Sam Altman wants to take OpenAI public by the end of 2026, while the company is still projected to lose more than $200 billion before it turns a profit. A lot of people...
Capital-intensive businesses can keep competitors out. But it's even better when a business is asset-light AND protected from competition. That's the real sweet spot. Low capital needs plus a wide moat.
My take on Trump's view of the US federal budget in @FortuneMagazine: "It's a classic plowshares into swords." https://t.co/feois7TZug
The competitor acquisition is the one most existing business owners sleep on. SBA 7(a) covers it. You eliminate the competition and add cash flow at the same time. One of the cleanest deal theses we close. More operators should be looking at...
OXLC cut its distribution 50%. The price crashed 60%. And the yield is STILL 24%. Here's the catch — and why this CLO equity fund trading at a 16% discount might actually be interesting for the first time in years: https://t.co/oLGHvO4MvQ
Solid framework. What it doesn't show: steps 4-6 take 60-90 days and a bad month during diligence can reprice or kill the deal. Also that 5% seller note goes on standby for 2 years per SBA rules. Structure works when...
Every small business should have a 3 statement model. Most don't. Here's why that's a problem. I see this all the time. Business owner pulls up QuickBooks. Looks at the P&L. "Revenue's up. Expenses look fine. We're good." Two weeks later they're scrambling...
My conversation with @PRamanathan on how he helped lead a management buyout of a struggling cathodic protection business in 2003 and turned it into Corrosion Technology Services. Himself local to Dubai, Ram's company, CTS, includes 10 companies operating across 8 countries...
What are my current valuation predictions for OpenAI and Anthropic? OpenAI was valued at $28B in April 2023. Its latest funding round puts it at $852B. Anthropic was valued at $4B in early 2023. Today, it’s worth $380B. In my...
Wall Street Braces for 24/7 Trading via Tokenization DTCC intends to tokenize entire $100 trillion asset catalog, beginning with U.S. Treasuries later this year. NYSE Digital Trading Platform (announced Jan 2026): 24/7 onchain trading + settlement of U.S. equities/ETFs, instant settlement,...
SaaS dilution check: growth is strong, but SBC is the hidden tax👇 This chart maps SBC/Revenue vs NTM growth • Red → SBC exceeds FCF margin (value leakage) • Yellow → moderate dilution • Green → disciplined compensation Market is starting to price efficiency, not...
My latest memo on the private credit market: Redemptions Are Climbing — Is That a Problem? https://t.co/QbeBHZNKir https://t.co/0CaMneVvAU
The S&P 500's equity risk premium is at a 2-year high.. even with higher TIPS yields @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/T5y4c7SbGO
Every company still runs its finances on a system from 1494 — when the fastest way to move information was a man on a horse. Wrote why I think AI and real financial networks are finally ready to replace it. Long read,...
Rule of 40 is where SaaS valuation meets reality Growth alone isn’t enough 👇 Chart combines NTM growth + GAAP EBITDA margin • >40 = high-quality balance (green) • 30–40 = acceptable (yellow) • <30 = weak efficiency (red) Market is clearly rewarding balance, not just...
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.3% (blue) and looks benign. But 10y10y forward yield (red) is 5.5% and pushing above pre-2008 levels. The global debt crisis waits for no one. Fiscal policy is out of control and geopolitical uncertainty makes...
Allowances, reliefs, and tax rates reset tomorrow in the United Kingdom. That includes: ¬ ISA allowance ¬ Dividend allowance ¬ Capital Gains allowance ¬ Savings income allowance ¬ Personal allowance ¬ Income tax rates ¬ Corporation tax rates ¬ And more Make sure you’re prepared for any upcoming changes. They...
If you're going to pay an expensive valuation, the business better be growing fast with exceptional financial metrics. High valuations with slow growth is the worst combination in investing. You're paying up for nothing.
Wembley bound Southampton submit 24/25 accounts, when the Club finished 20th in the Premier League. 🔑 figures ⚽️Revenue £158m ⬆️ 86% ⚽️Wages £116m ⬆️ 43% ⚽️Wages 73% of revenue ⚽️Underlying loss £62m ⬇️29% ⚽️Player sale profits £29m ⚽️Pre tax loss £54m (profit £17m) ⚽️Total accumulated losses £197m ⚽️Player...
China Daily notes that non-performing loan disposals are rising, suggesting that China is slowly developing a bad-loan market, even as record low net-interest margins make it harder for banks to recognize bad loans. https://t.co/UhXgPDv3nE
Current cash levels in a historical perspective, as per the BofA FMS. Feels like a good time to buy https://t.co/KoeTO5ThBC
Since questions about private credit are so popular today, I had a segment with Danny about the topic:
I believe design often matters more than data. Controversial? Maybe. But I've seen too many great analyses get ignored because the spreadsheet looked like a mess. Here's what I mean. You spend hours building a model. The numbers are perfect. Every formula...
Too bad there's no prediction market for S&P 500 CY EPS.. seems like just about everyone doesn't believe the current bottom-up estimates are anything close to reality... 2026 $320 2027 $373 @factset @kalshi https://t.co/b7iCflisq8
Inflationary regime... stocks & bonds moving together JPMAM While that means less diversification, it also means higher bond yields vs the 2010s.. when bonds zigged when stocks zagged... it's a trade-off. https://t.co/VNDHInIcmI
ICE Invests Further $600M Into Polymarket ICE launched Polymarket Signals & Sentiment tool (Feb 2026): normalizes chaotic real-time trading data into structured feed = institutional traders see Polymarket's implied probabilities next to bond yields + S&P 500 futures. Context: Polymarket launching...
SaaS valuations aren’t random — they cluster around growth + profitability Forward EV/Gross Profit vs NTM growth shows: • Higher growth → higher multiples (expected) • But operating margin is the real filter • Profitable names (green) consistently trade at premium $NET — 48x EV/GP...
"I always thought this idea of asset light was a bit of a myth because if you're just laser focused on investment, you're just realizing the investment was not in the balance sheet as it was historically, it's now...
When thinking about valuing #biotechs, especially those which are not yet profitable, a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model is perhaps the most important methodology Though it too has drawbacks #DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus https://t.co/1sfTMkZ6kO
A fintech left tens of thousands of government identity docs on a public server for 5 years. Not rogue behavior. Standard behavior under a framework that mandates collection but not protection. Regulators built the honeypot. Companies just filled it. https://t.co/xpczIoR9i0
Closing out a week where you actually know your numbers? That feeling is everything. You know your buffer is there. You know what's coming out next week — the subscriptions, the payroll, all of it. Already accounted for. Nothing sneaking up...
Both Coinbase and Ripple have conditional approval from the OCC for a national trust bank. https://t.co/G5nAw4oeqg
Fixed income: The YTM matters greatly.. 89% r-squared in terms of determining your 5-year return JPMAM https://t.co/b6f4gSRgeA
Felt like a good day to remind ourselves that there 12 public companies with a market cap >$1T and are here are some high-level financials on them. With today's announcement, OpenAI is worth ~$0.9T. (Data from Gemini.) https://t.co/44feWVSf4X
🚨 ANNOUNCEMENT 🚨 This month's Secret CFO Playbook will be the No BS Guide to AI for CFOs. Tomorrow I kick off a 4-part newsletter series getting deep into the CFO-grade issues in rolling out AI for finance. It's time to move...
$SOFI's "fintech" mask hides a massive unsecured lending operation - Bank in disguise: lending ~90% of profits, NII >60% - Growth driven by risky unsecured loans in a saturated market - Aggressive accounting inflates earnings - Re-rate to bank multiples => 60%+ downside https://t.co/ZZ8DRGoMRM
Chinese government bonds emerge as lone war haven. More on this in today's version of the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/jQYKfLr6kx
A lot of folks saying funds are maxed out on the long side. You do know there is no magical area where it stops on either the long or short side with the funds. 👉 Net new capital into...
Revolut's 2025 profit: $2.3 billion. The Lithuanian AML fine: €3.5 million. Trivial relative to profit. But it may have just put Revolut at the top of AMLA's direct supervision list starting 2028. AMLA supervision isn't a fine. It's a permanent structural overhead. That changes...
