Struggling Coinbase Gets Price Target Cut From JPMorgan Ahead of Thursday Earnings

Why It Matters

The revision signals that even bullish analysts see limited upside amid a prolonged crypto downturn, and the earnings will test Coinbase’s ability to offset spot‑market weakness with derivatives and stablecoin revenue.

Key Takeaways

• JPMorgan cuts Coinbase target to $290 from $399.
• Target implies 75% upside at $1,655 price.
• Projected Q4 adjusted EBITDA $734M, down from $801M.
• Spot trading volume forecast $263B; Deribit adds $117M revenue.
• Analysts warn revenue tied to crypto price volatility.

Pulse Analysis

The crypto market’s prolonged slump has placed Coinbase under intense pressure, with its shares tumbling more than 50 % since Bitcoin’s October peak. In response, JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington trimmed the investment bank’s price target for COIN to $290, down from $399, while still forecasting roughly 75 % upside from the current $1,655 level. This adjustment reflects a cautious optimism that the exchange can stabilize earnings despite weaker spot‑trading volumes and volatile digital‑asset prices. Investors will watch how the revised target aligns with the upcoming fourth‑quarter earnings release.

JPMorgan projects Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $734 million, a decline from $801 million in Q3, driven primarily by shrinking trading volumes and a slowdown in USDC stablecoin balances. Spot‑crypto turnover is expected to reach $263 billion, while Deribit, acquired last August, should contribute about $117 million of transaction revenue on an estimated $586 billion of derivatives volume. Total transaction revenue is modeled at $1.06 billion, modestly above the prior quarter’s $1 billion. On the subscription and services side, revenue is forecast at $670 million, below Coinbase’s own guidance, highlighting sensitivity to crypto price swings and staking yields.

Beyond the numbers, market participants will scrutinize Coinbase’s ability to diversify revenue streams as spot‑market volatility persists. Barclays and Compass Point analysts have already signaled lower expectations for retail trading and subscription income, suggesting earnings could miss consensus. The sustainability of USDC‑related fees and the incremental impact of Deribit’s derivatives platform will be key determinants of long‑term profitability. A weaker-than‑expected report could accelerate price target revisions, while a resilient performance may reaffirm JPMorgan’s bullish stance despite the broader crypto downturn.