Why It Matters
Digital‑asset adoption could fundamentally alter the profitability and risk profile of wholesale banks, affecting services that underpin global commerce. Understanding these trends helps investors gauge which banks are likely to thrive or falter as faster, 24/7 settlement becomes the new norm, making the episode especially relevant as key regulatory and infrastructure changes loom in the next few years.
Key Takeaways
- •Digital asset rails expected to dominate banking by 2030.
- •Potential $1.5‑8 B revenue boost for wholesale banks.
- •$21‑82 B revenue risk from shifting to crypto rails.
- •2025 Genius Act and 2026 Clarity Act drive regulation.
- •DTCC tokenized products and extended trading hours accelerate adoption.
Pulse Analysis
The episode outlines how digital‑asset infrastructure—often called "rails"—will reshape global wholesale banking by 2030. Faster settlement, 24/7 exchange capabilities, and growing fintech competition are the three primary forces accelerating adoption. Listeners hear that the U.S. leads regulatory clarity with the upcoming Genius Act in 2025 and the Clarity Act in 2026, setting a global benchmark for crypto‑service standards.
Financial analysts estimate a modest upside: banks that integrate crypto services could capture between $1.5 billion and $8 billion in additional revenue by 2030, roughly 1 % of total wholesale banking earnings. Conversely, the migration of client flows from traditional asset rails to digital alternatives poses a larger downside risk, potentially eroding $21 billion to $82 billion in cross‑border payments, liquidity, and collateral management income. These figures underscore why banks must weigh both growth opportunities and exposure to legacy‑rail displacement.
Regulatory and market catalysts are set to intensify investor focus. The Clarity Act would grant banks broader permission to service crypto assets, while the DTCC plans to launch tokenized securities in late 2026, expanding the token ecosystem. Additionally, NASDAQ and NYSE aim to extend trading hours to 23 hours a day by December 2026, further blurring the line between traditional and digital markets. Investors are urged to assess whether bank management teams are building the necessary digital‑rail capabilities to protect and grow their competitive advantage.
Episode Description
Our Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research Betsy Graseck explains how digital assets could reshape market infrastructure and how money moves, without overthrowing wholesale banking.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Betsy Graseck: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research.
Today, we are looking out to 2030 to estimate what we expect the impact of digital assets could be on global wholesale banking.
It's Monday, May 18th at 3:30 PM in New York.
We live in a world where money can move instantly. A payment or transfer can happen in a matter of minutes, if not seconds, in real time. But much of the financial system runs on older networks for moving cash and securities. These networks are what the industry calls rails. We expect clients will be looking for faster settlement across global banking services, driving the industry to adopt digital asset rails over the next decade.
We see three key drivers pushing this today. Number one, market support is out there for fintechs, which is increasing their competitiveness. Number two, global legislation and regulation is clarifying requirements for enabling digital asset services led by the U.S. with the Genius Act in 2025, and with the forward motion being made on the Clarity Act in 2026. The third driver of digital asset transformation is that exchanges are extending hours and moving towards offering 24/7 capabilities over the next several years.
Now, we expect digital assets will have two major impacts on global wholesale banks. First, as banks lean into servicing crypto assets, we see the potential for an additional $1.5 [billion] to $8 billion in revenues in 2030, which adds up to 1 percent to our global wholesale banks revenue forecast of $770 billion in 2030.
Second, impact on global wholesale banks is a risk. There is risk when money is in motion, and money could be set in motion as clients migrate revenues from traditional asset rails to digital asset rails. We anticipate this could impact $21 billion to $82 billion of revenues in 2030, primarily in cross-border payments, liquidity management, collateral management, businesses.
Now, while this transformation is likely to impact the industry over the next decade as more services go digital, we expect several catalysts in the second half will focus investor attention on these changes now. What are those catalysts? Number one, Clarity Act. The Clarity Act passing Congress would open up the door for wholesale banks to service crypto asset class more holistically.
Second catalyst, the DTCC, which is a major infrastructure player for securities markets in the U.S. The DTCC will be adding tokenized products in the fall of 2026. And then lastly, Nasdaq and NYSE are planning to extend trading hours on December 6th, 2026, to 23 hours by five days a week.
Now, what should investors make of all of this? Number one critical to understand how the investments that you have today are positioned for this transformation. Are managements protecting their strengths by developing capabilities for an ecosystem increasingly run on digital rails?
Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
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