Global Economy Blogs and Articles
Global Economy Blogs and Articles
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
HSBC’s latest geopolitical paper argues that a de‑escalation of global tensions will diminish the U.S. dollar’s safe‑haven appeal. With reduced risk, demand for the dollar should fall, allowing higher‑risk, undervalued currencies to rally. Emerging‑market (EM) currencies and those of energy‑importing nations in Europe and Asia stand to benefit the most. The analysis links lower energy‑price pressure to a broader FX shift away from the dollar.
An attack on Saudi Arabia's East‑West pipeline knocked out roughly 700,000 barrels per day of throughput, tightening global oil supplies. Meanwhile, U.S. LNG exports surged to a record 43.3 million tonnes in March, driven by new projects and a redirection of...
The Substack post satirically examines how former President Donald Trump's hyperbolic threat to "destroy an entire civilization" could be interpreted by investors as a market risk. It references CNBC anchor Sara Eisen’s on‑air reaction and uses Star Wars imagery—short‑term out‑of‑the‑money...
Award‑winning political cartoonist Michael de Adder contributed a guest post titled “Both Sides Win,” featuring a new cartoon that pits an Iranian cleric offering control of the Strait of Hormuz against a triumphant Donald Trump clutching a trophy. The piece highlights...
The Market Brief notes that the initial optimism from a two‑week cease‑fire is fading as markets give back Wednesday’s gains. Systematic macro hedge funds (CTAs) were positioned deep short the S&P 500 and max long WTI crude before the April 7 moves,...
The US dollar showed mixed performance Thursday, edging higher against the yen while slipping modestly versus the euro and pound. The move comes amid lingering uncertainty over a potential cease‑fire in the Israel‑Iran conflict, which has driven oil prices up...
Oil prices rebounded sharply, with WTI crude up 4.5% to $98.56, as the fragile U.S.-Iran cease‑fire remained under pressure. Iranian officials claimed the truce had already been violated, while former President Trump warned of renewed strikes if negotiations fail. European...
After the ceasefire announcement, market pricing shows a broadly dovish repricing of interest‑rate expectations as inflation worries ease. The Fed now shows a 7‑basis‑point cut probability with a 98% chance of holding rates at the next meeting. Most other central...
The March U.S. Consumer Price Index is slated for release tomorrow, with economists projecting a 0.9% month‑over‑month rise in headline CPI, up from 0.3% in February, and a 3.3% year‑over‑year increase. Core CPI is expected to climb 0.3% m/m, translating...
China reduced its scheduled domestic fuel‑price increase for the second time, limiting gasoline to a 3.85% rise (about $1.23 per litre) and diesel to 4.2% (around $1.20 per litre), a move aimed at tempering inflation amid volatile Middle‑East oil markets....
The article links soaring U.S. stock valuations to a long‑term decline in labor’s share of GDP, which has shifted profit generation toward capital and free cash flow. Researchers Atkeson et al. show that as employee compensation fell, more cash remained...
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast shows a steep rise in second‑quarter inflation, with the annualized CPI projected at 5.5 percent and the PCE index at 4.6 percent—both far above the Fed’s 2 percent target. Core inflation remains modest, with core CPI near 2.6 percent...
Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire, prompting the S&P 500 to close above 6,700, though analysts warn the optimism may be premature. Gold slipped to $4,727, roughly 16% below its recent all‑time high, while silver sits near $74, down 38% from...
Australian dollar momentum has surged as the US Dollar Index stalls, while the Chinese yuan continues its upward trajectory. Commodity markets have shifted, with oil prices plunging and gold prices rallying, creating a backdrop for a potential AUD super‑cycle. Analyst...
The MacroBusiness podcast examines the market fallout from a tentative U.S.–Iran cease‑fire, noting that while hostilities have paused, the underlying tensions remain unresolved. It assesses how a fragile pause could depress oil prices, temper inflation expectations, and shift safe‑haven flows....
