Why Didn’t Other Countries Copy Trump’s Tariffs?

Key Takeaways

• US tariffs spiked in 2025, but global tariff index stayed flat
• Only China matched US tariff surge; others kept policies WTO‑compliant
• World trade volume grew in 2025 despite US protectionism
• Nations built “bunkers” and “bridges” to safeguard and expand trade
• US domestic politics shifted to bipartisan anti‑free‑trade stance post‑GFC

Pulse Analysis

When Donald Trump unleashed a series of high‑profile tariffs in 2025, analysts warned of a domino effect that could roll back decades of trade liberalisation. The IMF Tariff Tracker, however, tells a different story: the United States alone saw its average tariff rate surge, while the rest of the world, save for China’s mirrored response, kept aggregate tariffs flat. Even traditional targets like steel saw only limited, WTO‑compliant measures, and the United States eventually softened its most punitive duties, suggesting the feared protectionist cascade never materialised.

The restraint stemmed from a combination of economic pragmatism and institutional safeguards. Most nations view the global trading system as a source of prosperity and stability, so they chose to defend it through existing rules rather than retaliate with fire‑bombs. Strategies included building "bunkers"—defensive legal and supply‑chain structures—to reduce vulnerability, and erecting "bridges" by signing new trade agreements and upgrading existing ones. Europe blended tariffs with quotas, while Canada and Mexico applied modest, defensive duties, all while adhering to WTO norms.

For policymakers, the episode offers a cautionary tale about the limits of unilateral trade aggression. While the United States has shifted toward a bipartisan, anti‑free‑trade consensus, the broader international community remains committed to openness, ensuring that global trade continues to expand even as the US retreats. This resilience suggests that future trade disputes will likely be managed within the rules‑based framework rather than through escalating tit‑for‑tat tariffs, preserving growth prospects for the 75% of world trade that lies outside the US‑China dyad.