Container Lines’ Red Sea Mixed Messages Confuse Shippers
•February 9, 2026
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Companies Mentioned
Why It Matters
Inconsistent carrier strategies and limited naval protection keep container volumes below pre‑crisis levels, raising costs and supply‑chain risk for global trade.
Key Takeaways
- •Maersk announces limited Suez return with military escort.
- •CMA CGM shifts to Cape of Good Hope, avoiding Red Sea.
- •2023 transits 441; Jan 2024 149; Jan 2025 157.
- •Military escort shortage hampers full Suez reinstatement.
- •MDS Transmodal launches monthly Suez monitoring for shippers.
Pulse Analysis
The Red Sea corridor remains a flashpoint for container lines, as carriers send contradictory signals about re‑entering the Suez Canal. Maersk’s latest earnings call hinted at a conditional return, contingent on regional peace, yet the company simultaneously announced the restart of two services—MECL and the Gemini‑co‑operated ME11—under a military escort. CMA CGM, which kept a protected Suez run during the height of Houthi attacks, has now reverted to the longer Cape of Good Hope route. This back‑and‑forth leaves forwarders scrambling for reliable transit options.
The crux of the dilemma lies in the scarcity of naval protection. Maersk admits that a full‑scale Suez redeployment would require more escort vessels than are presently available, forcing a hybrid model where only select services receive military cover. The limited escort capacity inflates freight rates, disrupts schedule reliability, and pushes high‑value cargo onto risk‑averse routes. Meanwhile, feeder operators continue to transit the Bab El‑Mandeb without incident, highlighting a disparity between major carriers’ risk appetite and smaller players’ operational flexibility.
Traffic volumes underscore the lingering impact of the crisis. MDS Transmodal data show a steep drop from 441 container calls in January 2023 to just 149 in January 2024, with TEU throughput falling from 4.63 million to 0.70 million last month. The new monthly Suez Monitoring service aims to give shippers real‑time visibility as carriers calibrate their redeployment strategies. For supply‑chain managers, the key decision hinges on balancing cost, speed, and security, while the industry watches for any shift in geopolitical conditions that could finally normalize the Suez lane.
Container lines’ Red Sea mixed messages confuse shippers
Credit: Suez Canal Authority
Shippers are confused by the mixed messages being sent out from carriers regarding the return of container shipping to the Suez Canal route.
According to Global Shippers’ Forum director James Hookham, Maersk, in its last earnings call of 2025, said that there would need to be peace in the Middle East before carriers could return to the shorter route between Europe and Asia.
In what Hookham calls a “bizarre week,” Maersk announced that two of its services—a standalone service, the MECL, which operates between India and the US East Coast, and a Gemini Cooperation service with Hapag‑Lloyd, the ME11, which operates between the Mediterranean and India—will return to transiting the Red Sea and Suez Canal.
“Suddenly, on the latest earnings call and in the media Vincent Clerc [the Maersk CEO] is saying that the company is returning to Suez but with a military escort. The Red Sea is still evidently a high‑risk venture and the situation in the wider region is still on a knife‑edge, so I’m advising GSF members to be cautious,” said Hookham.
CMA CGM, which had kept a regular service operating through the Suez/Red Sea route with a French military escort throughout the period when Yemen‑based Houthis were attacking commercial vessels, has now returned its services to the much longer Cape of Good Hope.
In a recently published story in the Financial Times, Clerc admitted that a return to Suez would be a “complicated redeployment for the industry as Maersk’s ships need a military escort.” He added that a full return to the Red Sea route is unfeasible when using military escorts because there are not enough military ships to protect commercial operations at that scale.
Some carriers have continued to operate in the region throughout the Gaza conflict. A number of feeder operators have continued to transit the canal, Red Sea and Bab El‑Mandeb strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, without incident.
Speculation that Maersk is transporting equipment to the Middle East for the US military in support of the carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln could be a reason for the return of some Maersk services.
However, the Gemini Cooperation, which includes Maersk and Hapag‑Lloyd, is also considering a return of the AE12 and AE15 to the region, saying a further announcement will come soon.
Given that the situation is in a state of flux and that the major carriers require a military escort, supply‑chain managers can be excused for being hesitant when considering the dangers around how some very high‑value cargoes are being transported to consumer markets.
As an aid to industry, MDS Transmodal has now started a monthly Suez Monitoring service as a guide for operators, forwarders and shippers as carriers make decisions on which services return to Suez and when.
Antonella Teodoro, an analyst at MDS Transmodal, said: “With shipping lines still assessing when – and to what extent – to return to the Suez Canal, the figures point to continued caution.”
Comparing the pre‑crisis transits on a month‑by‑month basis, MDS Transmodal data reveal that in January this year 149 container vessels passed through the Suez Canal—lower than in January 2024 (157) and January 2025 (174)—but much less than in 2023 when 441 vessels used the route.
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In TEU terms the volumes were 4.63 million TEU in January 2023, declining to 1.13 million TEU the following year and 605,470 TEU last year, recovering slightly last month to 703,000 TEU.
“Vessel calls and deployed capacity remain well below pre‑crisis levels. We will continue to monitor actual containership movements to identify when traffic begins to approach 2023 levels,” said Teodoro.
About the Author
Europe correspondent
Experienced journalist working online, in monthly magazines and daily news coverage. Nick Savvides began his journalistic career working as a freelance from his flat in central London, and has since worked in Athens, while also writing for major publications including The Observer, The European, Daily Express and Thomson Reuters.
Most recently Nick joined The Loadstar as the publication’s news editor to develop its profile, increase readership, and build a team that markets, sells, and reports on supply‑chain issues and container‑shipping news.
He previously worked at ci‑online (the online publication for Containerisation International and Container News), International Freighting Weekly (a sister publication focused on container shipping, rail, trucking and ports), and held roles at Informa, Reed’s chemical reporting team ICIS, Lloyd’s Register (energy division), The Naval Architect (Royal Institution of Naval Architects), and Fairplay—where he won the Seahorse Club Journalist of the Year and Feature Writer of the Year 2018 awards.
After Fairplay closed, Nick joined the US start‑up FreightWaves.
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