Container Lines’ Red Sea Mixed Messages Confuse Shippers

Why It Matters

Inconsistent carrier strategies and limited naval protection keep container volumes below pre‑crisis levels, raising costs and supply‑chain risk for global trade.

Key Takeaways

• Maersk announces limited Suez return with military escort.
• CMA CGM shifts to Cape of Good Hope, avoiding Red Sea.
• 2023 transits 441; Jan 2024 149; Jan 2025 157.
• Military escort shortage hampers full Suez reinstatement.
• MDS Transmodal launches monthly Suez monitoring for shippers.

Pulse Analysis

The Red Sea corridor remains a flashpoint for container lines, as carriers send contradictory signals about re‑entering the Suez Canal. Maersk’s latest earnings call hinted at a conditional return, contingent on regional peace, yet the company simultaneously announced the restart of two services—MECL and the Gemini‑co‑operated ME11—under a military escort. CMA CGM, which kept a protected Suez run during the height of Houthi attacks, has now reverted to the longer Cape of Good Hope route. This back‑and‑forth leaves forwarders scrambling for reliable transit options.

The crux of the dilemma lies in the scarcity of naval protection. Maersk admits that a full‑scale Suez redeployment would require more escort vessels than are presently available, forcing a hybrid model where only select services receive military cover. The limited escort capacity inflates freight rates, disrupts schedule reliability, and pushes high‑value cargo onto risk‑averse routes. Meanwhile, feeder operators continue to transit the Bab El‑Mandeb without incident, highlighting a disparity between major carriers’ risk appetite and smaller players’ operational flexibility.

Traffic volumes underscore the lingering impact of the crisis. MDS Transmodal data show a steep drop from 441 container calls in January 2023 to just 149 in January 2024, with TEU throughput falling from 4.63 million to 0.70 million last month. The new monthly Suez Monitoring service aims to give shippers real‑time visibility as carriers calibrate their redeployment strategies. For supply‑chain managers, the key decision hinges on balancing cost, speed, and security, while the industry watches for any shift in geopolitical conditions that could finally normalize the Suez lane.