ECB Consumer Expectations Survey Results – March 2026

Why It Matters

Higher inflation expectations and worsening growth outlook pressure the ECB to consider tighter monetary policy, while rising mortgage rates and credit tightening could dampen household consumption across the euro area.

Key Takeaways

• Median 12‑month inflation perception rose to 3.5% in March.
• One‑year ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.0%, highest since 2023.
• Expected real GDP growth turned negative, now –2.1% for next year.
• Unemployment expectations rose to 11.3% for the coming 12 months.
• Mortgage‑rate expectations increased to 4.9% for the next 12 months.

Pulse Analysis

The March wave of the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey reveals a notable shift in inflation psychology. Respondents now see price growth over the past year at 3.5%, up from 3.0% in February, and anticipate 4.0% inflation over the next twelve months. This upward drift spans income brackets, though lower‑income households remain slightly more pessimistic. For policymakers, the surge in short‑term inflation expectations raises the risk of entrenched price pressures, potentially prompting a reassessment of the ECB’s rate trajectory before the June data release.

Spending sentiment also brightened despite stagnant income outlooks. Nominal income growth expectations held at 1.2%, yet households expect nominal spending to rise 4.1% in the coming year, the strongest level since May 2023. The gap suggests consumers are willing to absorb higher costs, likely by drawing on savings or increasing debt, especially as mortgage‑rate expectations climbed to 4.9%. Such behavior could sustain demand in the short run but may also amplify balance‑sheet vulnerabilities if credit conditions tighten further.

On the macro front, confidence in economic growth eroded, with the median GDP outlook slipping to –2.1% and unemployment expectations nudging up to 11.3%. Coupled with a higher perceived likelihood of tighter credit—reaching its strongest level since early 2024—these signals point to a decelerating euro‑area economy. Housing price expectations rose modestly to 3.7%, while mortgage‑rate forecasts rose to 4.9%, hinting at pressure on the housing market. Together, the data suggest the ECB faces a delicate balancing act: curbing inflation without choking the already fragile growth trajectory.