Fertiliser Shortages Due to Iran War Are a Key Worry for Developing World, UN Agency Says

Why It Matters

Fertilizer shortages directly jeopardize agricultural productivity and stability in vulnerable developing regions, amplifying food‑security risks. The disruption also underscores the fragility of global commodity supply chains amid geopolitical tensions.

Key Takeaways

• Strait of Hormuz blockage threatens one‑third of global urea supply
• Developing nations risk lower yields and food‑security shocks
• Egypt and Algeria could supply up to $2.9 billion of untapped fertilizer
• Higher gas prices may aid Algeria, Malaysia, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan
• Oil revenue gains limited for most net‑importing producers

Pulse Analysis

The ongoing Iran‑U.S. confrontation has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a chokepoint for nitrogen fertilizers, particularly urea, which accounts for roughly 33% of global shipments. Disruptions in this narrow maritime corridor ripple through supply chains, inflating prices and creating logistical bottlenecks for import‑dependent agrarian economies. For countries such as Kenya, Uganda, Thailand and Sri Lanka, which rely heavily on Gulf‑origin fertilizers, the blockage threatens to erode profit margins for farmers and strain national food‑security strategies.

In regions where agricultural calendars are tightly bound to seasonal rains—namely Sub‑Saharan Africa and South Asia—reduced fertilizer availability translates into lower yields rather than delayed planting. The International Trade Centre estimates that untapped export capacity in Egypt ($1.6 billion) and Algeria ($1.3 billion) could partially offset the shortfall, but logistical, regulatory, and quality‑control hurdles limit immediate impact. Meanwhile, higher natural‑gas prices may benefit producers like Algeria, Malaysia, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, yet expanding supply in the short term remains uncertain, leaving developing nations to shoulder the brunt of the crisis.

Recognizing the systemic risk, the UN is spearheading diplomatic talks to guarantee safe passage for fertilizer cargoes through Hormuz. Long‑term resilience will require diversifying supply sources, investing in regional fertilizer production, and bolstering storage infrastructure to buffer against future geopolitical shocks. Policymakers in affected countries must also consider subsidy adjustments and alternative agronomic practices to mitigate yield losses while the international community works toward a stable maritime corridor.