[Interview] Ivan Krastev: The ‘West’ of the Cold War-Era Will Not Return

Why It Matters

Europe’s ability to adapt its institutional model will determine whether it remains a global stabiliser or fragments amid security threats and populist upheaval.

Key Takeaways

• EU needs flexible, project‑based integration, not full 27‑state unanimity
• German defence budget will soon outsize France and UK combined
• Rise of far‑right parties threatens EU cohesion and policy continuity
• Post‑American Europe must redefine security beyond soft‑power reliance
• Asia’s ascent and US identity shift reshape global power balance

Pulse Analysis

Krastev’s assessment arrives at a moment when Europe confronts a profound identity crisis. The post‑war consensus that once anchored the continent—rooted in American leadership, economic integration, and a belief that large‑scale war was unthinkable—has eroded after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This shock has forced European capitals to re‑evaluate defence capabilities, prompting Germany to plan a defence budget that will eclipse the combined spending of France and the United Kingdom within five years. Such a shift signals a move from soft‑power diplomacy toward a more hard‑power posture, reshaping the EU’s strategic calculus.

The interview also spotlights the political turbulence generated by the surge of nationalist and populist movements. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) could, if it gains power, steer a newly‑armed nation toward a more confrontational foreign policy. In France, the prospect of a far‑right leader like Jordan Bardella raises questions about the durability of the eurozone and the EU’s collective decision‑making. Krastev warns that even a few member states acting in concert can paralyse EU institutions, making consensus‑driven governance increasingly fragile.

Looking ahead, Krastev envisions a hybrid EU model that blends integration with selective disintegration. He proposes voluntary, sector‑specific coalitions—particularly in defence and capital markets—allowing willing states to deepen cooperation while preserving the single market and core legal norms for all members. This flexible architecture could help Europe navigate the twin challenges of external power shifts, notably Asia’s rise and a re‑defining United States, and internal political fragmentation. The success of such a model will hinge on the EU’s capacity to balance unity with autonomy, ensuring it remains a relevant actor in a rapidly changing global order.