Pacific Container Spot Rates Plunge Ahead of Contract Season
•February 10, 2026
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Why It Matters
Reduced freight rates squeeze carrier margins while the surge in blank sailings threatens supply‑chain reliability, forcing shippers to reassess logistics strategies.
Key Takeaways
- •Pacific spot rates dip below $1,700 per FEU.
- •Blank sailings increase, with dozens cancelled across routes.
- •Overcapacity drives lower freight costs but risks delays.
- •Analysts forecast continued rate declines through March.
- •Shippers must plan for potential service interruptions.
Pulse Analysis
The recent plunge in Pacific spot rates underscores how seasonal calendar shifts can amplify structural market imbalances. After the Lunar New Year slipped later than usual, container volumes to the U.S. West Coast weakened, allowing consultants like Linerlytica and Xeneta to report rates slipping to $1,400‑$1,480 per FEU. This price erosion is compounded by carriers’ aggressive capacity management, with blank sailings scheduled on multiple weeks to curb excess inventory. The immediate effect is a buyer‑friendly pricing environment, but it also signals that carriers are grappling with a supply‑demand mismatch that extends beyond a single holiday.
Blank sailings, traditionally a tool for seasonal demand spikes, have become a reactive measure to chronic overcapacity. Drewry notes a higher frequency of sailings being cancelled than in previous years, while Xeneta warns that shippers may encounter last‑minute service withdrawals, creating ripple effects across downstream logistics. Overcapacity can depress freight rates, yet it also raises operational costs for carriers forced to idle vessels or reroute cargo. For importers and exporters, the trade‑off is clear: lower freight bills come with the uncertainty of delayed departures and potential inventory shortages, prompting a reevaluation of safety‑stock policies and freight‑forwarder contracts.
Looking ahead, analysts such as Dynamar’s Darron Wadey anticipate that the rate‑index decline will persist into March, reflecting a broader market correction rather than a temporary holiday lull. Carriers may intensify capacity cuts or consolidate services, while shippers should consider securing longer‑term contracts or hedging strategies to lock in rates before further erosion. The evolving landscape also highlights the importance of real‑time visibility tools that can alert supply‑chain managers to sudden sail cancellations, enabling proactive rerouting and mitigating the operational price of overcapacity. In this environment, firms that blend cost sensitivity with robust risk‑management practices will be best positioned to navigate the volatile Pacific freight market.
Pacific container spot rates plunge ahead of contract season
3 Min Read
As the annual contract season is about to start in earnest, traditionally carriers ramp up rates to boost their hand ahead of negotiations, and with a late Lunar New Year now should be the time to turbo‑charge freight costs.
Instead, the latest industry discussions are around how low spot rates can fall, particularly on the eastbound transpacific, where the latest weekly update from consultant Linerlytica reports that rates to the US West Coast are below $1,700 per FEU compared with the last SCFI assessment at $1,801 per FEU.
“Rates as low as $1,400 per FEU are being offered as the pre‑Chinese New Year volumes to the US have been diluted due to the late holidays this year,” added the Hong Kong‑based consultancy.
Drewry’s shipping points to the lack of a traditional pre‑Lunar New Year rush that has prompted carriers to blank sailings on 18, 27 and 28 over the coming three weeks.
“A frequency much higher than in previous years,” noted Drewry.
A similar effect is being observed on the Asia‑to‑Europe headhaul leg where container lines have committed to cancelling nine, 16 and nine sailings over the three‑week period.
Chief Analyst at Xeneta, Peter Sand, said the current market average on the Pacific was $1,480 per FEU, excluding terminal handling charges, but Xeneta’s mid‑low rate (the lowest 25 %) is $1,207.
Sand said the continued softening of spot rates, particularly on the Pacific, will have “a sting in the tail,” as container lines look to stabilise the situation by aggressively cancelling sailings.
“If a shipper expects cargo to leave port on a certain date, they should factor the risk of that service being blanked – potentially at the last minute – and the subsequent ripple effects of delays on their supply chain,” said Sand.
He added: “Shippers may benefit from overcapacity if it forces lower freight rates, but if that overcapacity also causes increased blanked sailings, there could be an operational price to pay.”
The container‑shipping headhaul services out of Asia are affected by the Lunar New Year, which started in late January last year, 20 days earlier than this year; adjustments and recovery will necessarily have started earlier in 2025, points out Dynamar analyst Darron Wadey, who argues that the real test for the market will be in March after the holiday season.
Having highlighted the caveats, Wadey observed: “There is a clearly significant and underlying downturn in rates on the Pacific, with the year‑on‑year differences of such a magnitude, that there is much more at play than just a Lunar New Year adjustment.”
According to Wadey, Dynamar expects to see similar “rate‑index reductions” into March and beyond, and across multiple trade lanes.
“I expect capacity management will come in [we’re not noticing anything outside of the usual Lunar New Year adjustments just yet], but there is so much capacity running around, it will be a costly exercise for someone, somewhere,” concluded Wadey.
About the Author
Nick Savvides – Europe correspondent
Experienced journalist working online, in monthly magazines and daily news coverage. Nick Savvides began his journalistic career working as a freelance from his flat in central London, and has since worked in Athens, while also writing for major publications including The Observer, The European, Daily Express and Thomson Reuters.
Most recently Nick joined The Loadstar as the publication’s news editor to develop its profile, increase readership and build a team that reports on supply‑chain issues and container‑shipping news.
He previously worked at ci‑online (Containerisation International), International Freighting Weekly (IFW), Informa’s publications, ICIS (chemical tanker reporter), Lloyd’s Register (technical magazine), The Naval Architect (Royal Institution of Naval Architects), and Fairplay (where he won the Seahorse Club Journalist of the Year and Feature Writer of the Year 2018 awards).
After Fairplay closed, Nick joined the US start‑up FreightWaves.
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