Retail Sales Decrease in December: Statistics Canada

Why It Matters

The decline highlights sector‑specific weakness amid broader consumer resilience, signaling potential volatility for retailers heading into 2025. Early January growth, if confirmed, could offset the December dip and shape inventory and pricing strategies.

Key Takeaways

• December retail sales fell 0.4% to $70 billion.
• Motor vehicle dealers down 1.6%; gasoline stations up 2.8%.
• Core retail sales slipped 0.3% after November gain.
• E‑commerce sales rose 3.6% to $4.3 billion.
• January flash estimate predicts 1.5% sales increase.

Pulse Analysis

Canada’s retail landscape entered December with a modest contraction, as headline sales slipped 0.4% to $70 billion. Seasonal slowdowns are typical after the holiday surge, but the decline was broader than usual, touching three of nine subsectors. The dip was largely confined to motor vehicle and parts dealers, which fell 1.6% amid weaker new‑car demand. Meanwhile, gasoline stations and fuel vendors bucked the trend, posting a 2.8% rise, reflecting higher fuel consumption and price dynamics.

The core retail segment—excluding automotive and fuel outlets—registered a 0.3% decline, reversing the 1.5% growth seen in November. Building‑material, garden, and furniture retailers were among the laggards, while sporting goods and hobby stores provided modest support. Notably, e‑commerce continued its upward trajectory, expanding 3.6% to $4.3 billion and representing 6.1% of total retail trade, up from 5.8% in November. This digital shift underscores the growing importance of online channels for Canadian consumers, even as brick‑and‑mortar sales waver.

Looking ahead, Statistics Canada’s flash estimate points to a 1.5% increase in January, suggesting a potential rebound after the December slowdown. Analysts from BMO and CIBC caution that the underlying trend in inflation‑adjusted sales remains sideways, and monthly volatility may persist. Retailers will need to monitor inventory levels, especially in automotive and fuel‑related categories, while leveraging e‑commerce growth to sustain momentum. Policymakers should watch consumer spending patterns as an early indicator of economic health amid ongoing uncertainty.