Seven Charts that Will Define France’s G7 Summit

Why It Matters

The summit will shape coordinated policies on trade, technology and resource security, influencing global supply chains, climate goals and the competitive balance between the West and China.

Key Takeaways

• China’s exports to G7 rise; imports drop, sparking tariff talks
• France holds the only balanced current‑account among G7 nations
• U.S. accounts for 79% of new G7 AI firms, France 3.4%
• Europe seeks $60 billion to replace Chinese rare‑earth supply
• All G7 cut ODA in 2025; U.S. slashes aid 57%

Pulse Analysis

The Evian‑les‑Bains gathering arrives at a moment when the G7’s relevance is under scrutiny. Trade data reveal a stark asymmetry: Chinese exports to all G7 members except Canada have surged, while imports have receded, reviving concerns that China’s industrial overcapacity is flooding Western markets. European policymakers are weighing a new version of Section 301 tariffs to curb the influx, while the United States, despite a simultaneous decline in bilateral trade, leverages tariff threats as bargaining chips rather than imposing maximum duties. This dynamic underscores a broader push for coordinated economic policy to address sovereign‑debt stress and trade imbalances that echo the forum’s 1975 origins.

Artificial intelligence dominates the agenda, yet the competitive gap remains wide. By 2025, nearly four‑fifths of newly funded AI startups across the G7 were U.S.‑based, dwarfing France’s modest 3.4% share. To narrow the divide, President Macron has secured a €45 billion (about $48 billion) commitment from SoftBank for French AI infrastructure and used the Choose France summit to attract data‑center investments. While the G7 is unlikely to produce a breakthrough AI treaty, it may forge shared standards for trustworthy AI and foster cross‑border collaboration that could accelerate Europe’s lagging ecosystem.

Energy security and critical minerals round out the discussion, with Europe still dependent on China for 85% of heavy rare‑earth elements and 98% of rare‑earth magnets. The projected $60 billion investment to diversify supply chains reflects the urgency of breaking this monopoly before the next G20 in Miami. Simultaneously, the G7 faces an unprecedented contraction in development assistance—U.S. aid fell 57% in 2025, and the other major donors trimmed budgets by double‑digit percentages. The shift toward public‑private financing, especially via the EBRD’s new African initiatives, signals a strategic re‑orientation that could reshape aid effectiveness while balancing climate‑transition goals with economic growth.