The West Is Still Getting Russia Wrong

Why It Matters

Understanding Russia’s disruption‑focused strategy is crucial for Western policymakers to design effective deterrence and resilience measures, preventing misallocation of resources and strategic surprise.

Key Takeaways

• Putin sees Russia as great power countering Western liberalism
• Kremlin lacks a coherent, long‑term world‑remaking plan
• Strategy centers on disruption rather than territorial domination
• Western analyses swing between “no strategy” and “revanchist agenda.”
• Misreading Russia risks ineffective policy and security gaps

Pulse Analysis

The ongoing war in Ukraine has exposed a persistent blind spot in Western strategic thinking: the assumption that Russia operates under a single, monolithic plan. In the article “The West Is Still Getting Russia Wrong,” Inna Bondarenko and Daniel Sleat argue that President Vladimir Putin views Moscow as a civilizational bulwark against Western liberalism, yet he does not possess a detailed blueprint for global domination. This disconnect between grandiose rhetoric and operational reality means the Kremlin’s actions are guided more by opportunistic disruption than by a long‑term, coherent agenda.

From cyber intrusions that target critical infrastructure to energy blackouts that weaponize Europe’s dependence on gas, Moscow’s playbook is built around sowing uncertainty. The Kremlin leverages disinformation, financial pressure, and proxy forces to destabilize allies and erode confidence in democratic institutions. By focusing on disruption, Russia can achieve strategic gains without committing to costly territorial conquests, stretching Western resources thin and forcing policymakers to react to a constantly shifting threat landscape.

For Western governments, recognizing disruption as Russia’s core strategy demands a shift from pure deterrence to comprehensive resilience. Investing in cyber defenses, diversifying energy supplies, and bolstering democratic information ecosystems become as vital as conventional military readiness. Policymakers must also calibrate sanctions to target the Kremlin’s ability to fund disruptive operations, rather than solely aiming to reverse territorial losses. By aligning strategy with the reality of Russian disruption, the West can reduce surprise, protect critical assets, and maintain strategic stability in an increasingly contested global order. This proactive posture also signals to allies that the West can anticipate and counter hybrid threats before they materialize.