US Commerce Targets Three Mills in 2025 Review of Softwood Duties

Why It Matters

The outcome will reset duty rates, directly affecting pricing for U.S. construction firms and the profitability of Canadian mills, while signaling broader U.S. enforcement across forest‑product imports.

Key Takeaways

• Commerce starts 2025 antidumping review of three Canadian softwood mills
• Review covers full‑year 2025 US imports, decisions due by 31 Mar 2027
• Brazil and Portugal uncoated paper also under parallel antidumping review
• Data sources: CBP import records or producer questionnaires, due 9 May 2026
• Review will reset duty rates in longest‑running Canada‑US softwood dispute

Pulse Analysis

The Canada‑U.S. softwood lumber dispute, now spanning more than three decades, remains the most persistent trade conflict in North America’s forest sector. At its core is the allegation that Canadian producers benefit from subsidized timber costs, prompting the United States to impose antidumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD). Each year, the Department of Commerce conducts an administrative review that recalibrates duty rates based on the most recent import data. This mechanism not only shapes pricing for U.S. builders and remodelers but also influences the profitability of Canadian mills that rely heavily on the American market.

The latest Federal Register notice, issued on 4 May 2026, launches the 2025 review for three Canadian softwood exporters: Manitoba Ltd, Woodstock Forest Products (CWP—Montreal), and Norsask Forest Products. The Commerce Department will anchor its analysis on U.S. Customs and Border Protection import records for the calendar year 2025, though producers may also submit quantity‑and‑value questionnaires. All data must be placed on the record by 9 May 2026, with respondent‑selection decisions slated for 8 June. Simultaneously, the agency has opened parallel antidumping reviews of uncoated paper from Brazil’s Suzano and Sylvamo and Portugal’s Navigator Company, expanding the scope of trade enforcement.

The outcomes of these reviews carry immediate financial weight. Should the department determine that Canadian mills were selling below fair value, duty rates could rise, adding several cents per board foot to U.S. import costs and squeezing margins for Canadian exporters. Conversely, a finding of no injury could preserve or even lower existing duties, benefitting both sides of the border. Stakeholders are closely monitoring the timeline, as the final decisions are due by 31 Mar 2027. The broader inclusion of paper producers signals a more aggressive U.S. stance on trade remedies across the forest products value chain.