U.S. Intervention in Venezuela Could Help Solve Colombia’s Energy Crisis

Why It Matters

Restoring Venezuelan gas imports could lower Colombia’s energy costs and improve fiscal balance, but delayed pipeline repairs keep the country dependent on expensive LPG imports.

Key Takeaways

• Colombia gas output fell 17% YoY to 683 mmcf/d.
• LPG imports projected to supply 30% of gas in 2026.
• Venezuela pipeline could deliver 500 mmcf/d, covering shortfall.
• Pipeline repairs may take months, delaying relief.

Pulse Analysis

Colombia’s domestic natural‑gas sector is in rapid decline, with January 2026 production slipping to 683 million cubic feet per day – a 17 % drop from a year earlier. The shortfall forces the government to import increasingly expensive liquefied petroleum gas, which now accounts for an estimated 30 % of the country’s gas supply in 2026, up from 18 % in 2025. Higher import bills strain public finances already under pressure from fiscal deficits and a looming election, while the power grid’s reliance on gas‑fired plants raises the risk of brownouts during dry periods.

The United States’ recent intervention in Venezuela, which included a limited easing of sanctions, reopened the prospect of cross‑border gas flows. Venezuela holds roughly 6.3 trillion cubic feet of natural‑gas reserves, more than double Colombia’s own, and the 139‑mile Antonio Ricaurte pipeline can transport up to 500 million cubic feet per day. That capacity exceeds the estimated Colombian shortfall of 206 million cubic feet per day, offering a cost‑effective alternative to LPG imports and a potential boost to the country’s balance‑of‑trade.

Despite the attractive economics, the pipeline remains inoperable after a decade of neglect; corrosion, looted components and missing sections require extensive repairs. Engineers estimate that replacing 5 km of pipe and reversing flow direction will take several months, with full commissioning possibly extending into 2027. In the interim, Colombia must continue to rely on costly LPG and accelerate domestic gas‑infrastructure upgrades, keeping pressure on its fiscal deficit. The delayed timeline underscores the strategic vulnerability of Colombia’s energy mix and highlights the broader geopolitical ripple effects of U.S. policy in the region.