Moody’s Talks – Inside Economics
Inside China
Moody’s Talks – Inside Economics
•January 16, 2026•1h 19m
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Moody’s Talks – Inside Economics•Jan 16, 2026
Why It Matters
Understanding China's economic health is crucial for policymakers, investors, and businesses worldwide, as its slowdown can ripple through global markets and trade patterns. The episode provides timely insight into the reliability of Chinese data and the broader implications of a weakening property market, helping listeners gauge future risks and opportunities.
Key Takeaways
- •December CPI rose 0.3% month‑over‑month, driven by food, energy.
- •BLS imputation rate hit 20%, with 40% using different‑cell method.
- •Fed target 2%; inflation hovering around 3% across measures.
- •Logan Wright warns Chinese GDP data unreliable, bearish outlook.
- •Tariff‑sensitive CPI up 0.1%; new vehicle prices flat despite tariffs.
Pulse Analysis
The episode opens with a deep dive into December’s Consumer Price Index. Headline CPI rose 0.3% month‑over‑month, propelled by a 0.7% jump in food prices and a modest 0.3% increase in energy costs, keeping annual inflation near 3%—well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. Hosts also flag a data‑quality issue: the Bureau of Labor Statistics now imputes roughly 20% of price observations, and 40% of those rely on the less precise different‑cell method. This surge in imputed data adds uncertainty to inflation readings. Analysts worry that these imputation practices could bias policy decisions.
Beyond headline numbers, the panel examines the tariff‑sensitive CPI, which edged up only 0.1% in December. Despite a 15% tariff on imported cars and parts, new vehicle prices remained flat, tempering overall price pressure. Meanwhile, food categories such as meat and coffee posted strong gains, while appliances fell 4.6%, creating a mixed picture. The modest movement in tariff‑sensitive items underscores how specific policy levers—like import duties—can be absorbed slowly, leaving broader inflation dynamics largely unchanged. The mixed signals suggest that future rate moves remain uncertain.
The conversation then shifts to China, where Rhodium partner Logan Wright critiques the reliability of official GDP statistics. Drawing on his two‑decade experience monitoring the People’s Bank of China, Wright cites the 2015 “Broken Abacus” study that exposed systemic over‑statement in Chinese output data. He argues that inflated growth figures mask underlying financial stresses and pose risks for global investors. By juxtaposing shaky Chinese metrics with U.S. inflation uncertainties, the hosts highlight the importance of independent research for navigating cross‑border economic volatility. Such scrutiny is essential as capital flows increasingly depend on transparent data.
Episode Description
The Inside Economics crew is joined by Logan Wright, partner and director of China market research at Rhodium Group. The team first unpacks December’s consumer price index and discusses the state of U.S. inflation. Then, Logan shares his expertise on the Chinese economy. From a slumping property sector, dubious economic data, and evolving trade flows, there was no shortage of topics to dive deep into.
Guest: Logan Wright, Partner at Rhodium Group and Director of China Markets Research
Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics
Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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Show Notes
Episode Summary
The Inside Economics crew is joined by Logan Wright, partner and director of China market research at Rhodium Group. The team first unpacks December’s consumer price index and discusses the state of U.S. inflation. Then, Logan shares his expertise on the Chinese economy. From a slumping property sector, dubious economic data, and evolving trade flows, there was no shortage of topics to dive deep into.
Episode Notes
The Inside Economics crew is joined by Logan Wright, partner and director of China market research at Rhodium Group. The team first unpacks December’s consumer price index and discusses the state of U.S. inflation. Then, Logan shares his expertise on the Chinese economy. From a slumping property sector, dubious economic data, and evolving trade flows, there was no shortage of topics to dive deep into.
Guest: Logan Wright, Partner at Rhodium Group and Director of China Markets Research
Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics; Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics; Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director – Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics
Follow Mark Zandi on X and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn.
Questions or comments? Please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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