April 2026 Market Recap
Why It Matters
The recap highlights that strong economic activity and rising oil prices keep inflation sticky, limiting the Fed’s ability to cut rates and supporting a bullish equity outlook, guiding investors’ asset‑allocation decisions.
Key Takeaways
- •Oil price spikes fueled inflation expectations and pressured interest rates.
- •US manufacturing indices surged, but input cost pressures remain high.
- •Fed kept rates steady at 3.5‑3.75%, with 95% chance of no change.
- •Equities rallied: S&P 500 +10%, Nasdaq +15% in April.
- •Portfolio allocation: 60% equities, 20% cash, 20% alternatives.
Summary
The video is an April 2026 market recap by David Darst, covering how geopolitical tensions, oil price movements, inflation expectations, and Federal Reserve policy shaped equities, bonds, currencies and commodities.
Oil prices jumped after cease‑fire talks and scattered clashes, pushing WTI to $105 and Brent up 83% year‑to‑date, which lifted inflation forecasts—Michigan consumers saw one‑year expectations rise to 4.7% from 3.7%. Manufacturing surveys showed a sharp rebound: the Federal Reserve Philadelphia index climbed to 26.7 from 18, and the Empire State index to 11 from 0.2, though input‑cost components remained elevated.
The Fed’s March meeting voted 8‑4 to leave rates unchanged at 3.5‑3.75%, with a 95% probability of holding through June. Treasury yields rose modestly, two‑year at 3.88% and ten‑year at 4.40%. Equities surged—S&P 500 up 10% for the month, Nasdaq 15%, driven by tech giants Nvidia (+14%), Microsoft (+10%), Meta (+7%), Google (+34%) and Amazon (+27%). Gold slipped to $4,614 per ounce as yields climbed.
Darst concludes that the economy is operating near capacity, but price pressures persist, suggesting a cautious stance on rate cuts. He recommends a 60/20/20 asset mix—majority equities, a fifth cash, and a fifth alternatives—to navigate continued volatility.
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